Westward Ho

Bishop Berkeley's 18th century dictum "Westward the course of empire takes its way" was borne out again last week by a Commerce Department analysis of urban demographic trends. The department forecast that by the year 2000, Los Angeles will surpass New York as the nation's largest metropolitan area, and that San Francisco will overtake Bridgeport, Conn., as the country's wealthiest. Los Angeles, which by 1982 had swept past Chicago to gain Second City status, is expected to swell to 8,870,000 regional residents. The San Francisco area will drop from 27th to 28th in population, with 1,634,000, but will enjoy the highest per capita income in the U.S.: nearly $25,000.

The Sunbelt and smaller metropolitan areas will continue to grow most rapidly over the next 15 years. The ten large metropolitan centers (defined as those with 1 million or more people by the year 2000) whose population will increase the fastest will be in Florida, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado and Utah. Nevertheless, the Snowbelt-to-Sunbelt stampede is slowing. Says Lyle Spatz, of the U.S. Census Bureau: "It's leveling off and even shifting in the Northeast. New England has shifted its economy and attracted people." The future will remain less than cheery around the Great Lakes and in some parts of the Midwest: Cleveland is expected to lead large metropolitan areas with an 8.2% population loss, and St. Louis, which was ranked tenth among urban areas in 1983, will drop to No. 16.

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