Under the Gun

As Roberto Castaneda Felice was driving to his office in Guatemala City last week, two men on a motorcycle pulled up alongside his car. Castaneda, the president of Guatemala's powerful Agricultural Association and a wellknown supporter of right-wing causes, speeded up. The motorcyclists followed. Now certain of an impending attack, Castaneda began to weave through the rushhour traffic but was unable to shake off his pursuers. As they caught up to him again, the two riders pulled out pistols and fired, mortally wounding Castaneda.

The murder shocked Guatemala, but the shock has become familiar. According to the Commission for Human Rights in Central America, since 1965 about 38,000 Guatemalans have been slain in political violence or have disappeared. The past four weeks alone have seen nearly 100 killings, some at the hands of leftist guerrillas, the overwhelming majority by government security forces and right-wing death squads. The upsurge in violence comes as the country is beginning to prepare for November elections that are expected to bring to power Guatemala's first nonmilitary government in two decades. The elections are part of a campaign to win increased financial support from the U.S., particularly a resumption of military aid, which was halted under the Carter Administration in 1977 because of the country's human rights record.

Guatemala badly needs all forms of aid to prop up its deteriorating economy. Inflation estimates run as high as 60%, and nearly half the labor force is either unemployed or underemployed. Discontent over the inability of the military regime of General Oscar Humberto Mejia Victores to reverse the economic slump and doubt that a civilian government may be able to do much better have revived support for the country's leftist guerrillas. "There are many people in this country living in misery," says Benedicto Lucas Garcia, a retired general and former Chief of Staff who directed a ruthless anti-insurgency campaign in 1980 and 1981 that had the rebels on the run. "That's why the guerrillas are growing stronger."

Between 1980 and 1983, the Guatemalan army had fought aggressively and cut the insurgents' strength from 9,000 to 3,000 armed men. But since then, coordination between four once disparate left-wing guerrilla groups has improved following the creation of a coalition known as the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity. The rebels mount sporadic urban terrorist attacks but operate mainly in border areas where military control is tenuous.

While the guerrillas have grown stronger, army morale has weakened. Corruption within the officer corps is said to be a serious problem. The 30,000-man army has come to leave much of antiguerrilla patrolling to local militias, which consist of inadequately trained and poorly armed conscripts.

The U.S., eager to retain an anti-Communist ally in Central America, is committed to the Mejia Victores regime despite its troubles. During a visit to Guatemala City last July, Treasury Secretary James Baker reaffirmed that support and praised the country's "progress toward democracy." Congress has yet to be convinced, however. While it authorized $45.5 million in economic aid last month, it has made a resumption of military assistance contingent on the holding of the November elections and on an acceptable human rights record.