Gathering Hints of Change

By William E. Smith

Death and destruction. Looting and violence. Repression and response. The convulsions of a divided country's worst crisis in more than two decades intensified in South Africa last week. As the state of emergency continued in the black townships of the Johannesburg area and the eastern Cape, rioting erupted in townships surrounding the port city of Durban in Natal province, taking an additional 54 lives. But as the week ended, the country was alive with speculation that the white minority government of State President P.W. Botha was on the verge of making concessions that might, for the first time, affect the essential framework of apartheid. The entire country, and many other governments as well, was caught up in the rumors that Botha may announce a package of unprecedented reforms this Thursday when he addresses the Natal provincial congress of his ruling National Party.

Pressure on the South African government has been rising steadily. In the past two months, the U.S. and a dozen West European nations have withdrawn their ambassadors for consultations, a deliberate gesture of disapproval. The Botha government's state of emergency has been denounced throughout the world. Last week, as he prepared to leave for a trip to seven black African countries, Pope John Paul II declared that South Africa's policy of apartheid was weighing on "the conscience of mankind," adding, "Our repugnance toward any form of racial discrimination is absolute and total."

Late in the week, South Africa's Foreign Minister Roelof F. ("Pik") Botha met in Vienna with six Reagan Administration officials, including National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane and Chester Crocker, the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. U.S. officials refused to disclose precisely what was said at the meeting, which was called at South Africa's request and lasted for five hours. Certainly it included a review of the current state of emergency and the general situation in South Africa. According to U.S. sources, the meeting was blunt and serious in tone. American representatives emphasized the need for Pretoria to embark on meetings with "credible" black leaders aimed at devising some sort of power sharing. Beyond that, the Americans restated the long-standing U.S. view that apartheid must be abandoned, South Africa should forsake its policy of creating "independent" homelands for blacks and instead should consider itself a unified country and all its people should enjoy the rights of citizenship. The South Africans were told that there would be no change in the policy of "constructive engagement," the soft-sell diplomacy that the U.S. has practiced toward Pretoria since 1981. But they were also told that the Reagan Administration, like the Botha government, was under some political pressure to get South Africa moving in the direction of reform. The U.S. representatives noted that an economic-sanctions bill is currently pending in Congress and could become law despite President Reagan's opposition to it. At one point, McFarlane told the South Africans flatly, "It is not in your interest for the President to be overridden on a veto."

Foreign Minister Botha and other South Africans at the meeting seemed genuine in their willingness to discuss alterations in the present system, though they were somewhat short on specifics. On Friday morning McFarlane reported to President Reagan on the trip. The Administration decided to remain noncommittal until it has a better idea of exactly what the South Africans have in mind. One concern is that Pretoria might appear to be seeking Washington's approval as a way of reducing international criticism of the state of emergency.

Constitutional reform, if indeed it is on the way, would be coming none too soon. After almost a month of emergency rule in 36 magisterial districts, the country is in greater upheaval than it has been for at least a quarter-century. The number of people arrested without charges, most of them black, approached 1,500 last week, though about 700 have since been released. The death toll since the emergency was declared on July 20 is close to 100. Tension has been steadily increasing, even in areas not covered by the emergency regulations. Anglican Bishop Desmond Tutu, the Nobel Peace laureate who has emerged as the leading voice of moderate black protest, conducted a mass funeral in Daveyton township and then personally averted an open clash between security forces and hundreds of black mourners (see box).

On Monday the trial of 16 prominent members of the United Democratic Front, a large antiapartheid movement, resumed. The treason case was said to be the country's biggest political trial since Nelson Mandela, leader of the outlawed African National Congress (A.N.C.), was imprisoned for life in 1964. A few days before the latest trial began, Victoria Mxenge, a prominent black lawyer who was to have helped defend the 16, was shot to death by four unidentified blacks as she was about to enter her home outside Durban. Black leaders blamed the government, while the authorities said the slaying was the result of a split between the U.D.F. and the followers of Zulu Chief Gatsha Buthelezi. Whatever the truth, the murder helped spark the rioting that burst across Natal last week.

The black violence in the province was directed not only at white authorities but also at the Indian community in general and particularly at Indian shopkeepers, whom blacks traditionally regard as symbols of exploitation. Many blacks also resent the fact that under the new tricameral system, the Indians now have a voice in Parliament, however muted, whereas the blacks have none. Most of the time the two communities coexist in an uneasy peace, but periods of economic hardship tend to accentuate the differences between the have-nots and the have-littles.

In one Durban township last week, thousands of Indians fled as gangs of young blacks ransacked and burned shops and houses. In Umlazi township, police used tear gas and rubber bullets against mobs of rampaging youths who burned shops and schools. In KwaMashu, a gang attacked the home of a black policeman and set it ablaze. To frightened Indians, the scene was all too reminiscent of the riots of 1949, when 142 Indians lost their lives in clashes with Zulus.

Between Wednesday and Thursday, the reported death toll in Natal jumped from four to 19. Most of the victims had apparently been coming from a memorial service for Mxenge in Umlazi township. Local newspapers reported that 16 people were dead on arrival at King Edward VIII Hospital. On Friday, some 300 people were admitted to hospitals with gunshot or assault wounds.

In one particularly ugly battle, in which hundreds of angry youths were involved, a black mob attacked and destroyed a group of buildings known as the Phoenix Center, founded by Mahatma Gandhi 80 years ago and now a monument to nonviolence. (Gandhi lived in South Africa from 1893 to 1915.) The episode began when hundreds of armed Indians assaulted 100 black refugees living in the center. Their motive: revenge for the previous looting and arson attacks by blacks on Indian townships.

With the most troubled areas sealed off by soldiers and police, journalists were unable to explore the reasons for the outbreak of violence around Durban. But there were two possibilities: 1) that the local population had again turned its anger on the Indians as scapegoats or 2) that renewed fighting had broken out between Inkatha, the Zulu political organization, and the U.D.F., whose local membership is largely Swazi. In addition, the fear of losing control of the situation may have led police to use their shotguns too much and too soon. Zulu Chief Buthelezi blamed black nationalist organizations, mainly the U.D.F. and the outlawed A.N.C., for "promoting this black-on-black confrontation, as well as a program of self-laceration in having blacks burning down their own facilities."

Earlier, some 225 miles to the southwest of Johannesburg, police in the Orange Free State town of Brandfort raided the house of Winnie Mandela, the wife of Nelson Mandela. They arrested 30 people after firing tear gas and rubber bullets into a crowd. Mrs. Mandela, who has been banished to the remote location for the past eight years, was away at the time of the raid. She had obtained government permission to go to Johannesburg to see her doctor. In explaining their action, police said they had been stoned by protesters and then chased rioters who took refuge in the Mandela house.

Still another source of pressure at home was the decision by black miners to declare a strike on Aug. 25. Cyril Ramaphosa, general secretary of the National Union of Mineworkers, announced that his union would walk out of 18 gold mines and eleven coal mines unless the Chamber of Mines increases the pay hike that went into effect on July 1. That increase ranged between 14% and 19.6%, but the union wants an across-the-board raise of 22%. The union claims it can get 240,000 workers to walk out. The Chamber of Mines, the trade association that handles wage negotiations, says the real number is closer to 65,000. Either way, the walkout could create still another arena of conflict between blacks and whites.

Even as all this was taking place, rumors were circulating throughout South Africa that the Botha government was ready at last to consider constitutional changes concerning the political status of blacks, who outnumber whites by 23.9 million to 4.9 million. ("Coloreds," or those of mixed race, and Indians are far behind, at 2.9 million and 1 million, respectively.) Until now, the apartheid system, dedicated to the perpetuation of white political power, has attempted to make South Africa's blacks "citizens" of a string of quasi-independent black homelands, thereby giving South Africa a theoretical white majority, if only on paper. The Botha government has allowed other reforms, such as the repeal of laws banning marriage and sexual relations across the color line and the creation of separate parliamentary chambers for the colored and Indian minorities. But no changes either completed or contemplated had touched on the real issue: the fact that the black majority is excluded from political power.

Now the Botha government is saying that all this may be negotiable and that the country should be prepared for the "most important" announcement since Dutch settlers arrived at the Cape of Good Hope 300 years ago. Among the proposals rumored to be included in Botha's speech this week would be a call for a dialogue on some form of power sharing with blacks, though not one that would lead to black majority rule. The government was also reported ready to consider making South Africa an "undivided state" with a common citizenship for all. The mere notion that the Botha government was prepared to talk about such reforms was remarkable. The change itself, if ever it became reality, would mark the beginning of the end of the apartheid dream so tenaciously espoused by the late Prime Minister Hendrik Verwoerd and the possible termination of the unworkable concept of "independent" homelands.

That the Botha government might countenance such change in its longstanding policies is a direct result of the mounting pressure it faces. From overseas, the criticism of the South African state of emergency continued last week. Among those who will attend a European Community strategy session on the subject are the West European ambassadors who have been withdrawn from Pretoria. In Washington, President Reagan reiterated his support for constructive engagement, though the State Department continued to criticize South Africa for pressing ahead with the treason trial of the 16 U.D.F. leaders. At midweek Indiana Republican Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, met with Secretary of State George Shultz and urged the Administration to accept the compromise bill on limited economic sanctions, the one that Senate and House conferees agreed upon two weeks ago. Lugar argued that if the Administration continued to oppose the measure, it could face the prospect of overwhelming Senate passage of the bill, which the House of Representatives has approved by a vote of 380 to 48, when Congress returns in September.

Thus the whirlwind of pressure was precipitating some sort of reappraisal. But the day of fundamental change has not yet arrived. The Botha government, even if it has revised its private notion of the national destiny, could have second thoughts. Certainly it will have trouble selling the idea of reform to rightwing South Africans. On previous occasions, South Africa has appeared ready to grant independence to Namibia, the territory also known as South West Africa, which Pretoria has ruled since 1920. Each time, however, the government has reconsidered: three months ago, it installed in Namibia a "transition" government that Pretoria can effectively control.

Still, the very fact that South Africa's leaders now seemed prepared to discuss such reforms, and last week were so volubly leaking the news of their thinking in the face of overseas criticism, suggests that some sort of change may really be coming to South Africa at last. What cannot yet be divined is precisely what sort of change is on the way, or at what pace . --By William E. Smith. Reported by Peter Hawthorne and Bruce W. Nelan/Johannesburg

With reporting by Reported by Peter Hawthorne, Bruce W. Nelan/Johannesburg