More Popular Than Ever

By Jacob V. Lamar Jr.

Having shrugged off a major operation for colon cancer, Ronald Reagan seems to have earned a new wave of public sympathy and support through his patented optimism. In a survey conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White Inc. during the week the President returned to work, Reagan's popularity reached an all-time high.[*] When asked to rate his performance on a l-to-10 scale, 67% put him in the top half, up 6% from May and 17% from his lowest rating, in the summer of 1982.

Despite the President's nonchalance, Americans seem somewhat concerned about his health, though not overly so. When asked about Reagan's medical problems, nearly 40% termed them "very serious" or "serious." Nevertheless, eight out of ten respondents said it was "very likely" or "fairly likely" that the 74-year-old Reagan would serve out his full term. Only 5% said it was "not likely at all."

As usual, the President's popularity seems to mirror the national mood, which has been extraordinarily buoyant since the beginning of 1984. When asked how they feel "things are going in the country," 69% answered "very well" or "fairly well." That is down only slightly from the 74% who felt the same way in the rosy aftermath of the 1984 Summer Olympics. Since Yankelovich began asking this question more than ten years ago, the figure has ranged from just above 20% (early in President Ford's term and during the Iran hostage crisis) to the current highs. The optimism found in the '84 and '85 polls was matched only in the months immediately after Jimmy Carter took office.

While the young, the wealthy and the Republican tended to be the most sanguine about the state of the nation, a majority of all demographic groups shared the upbeat mood. Even 53% of those making less than $ 10,000 agreed that things are going very or fairly well. The sunny outlook seems to reflect the current health of the economy: the lowest level of optimism during Reagan's term, 35%, came at the end of the last recession, in December 1982.

There was a striking discrepancy between Reagan's personal popularity and his perceived ability to solve specific problems. A whopping three-fourths of those polled said they had "only a little confidence" or "none at all" that he could reduce the deficit. Only one in four had "a lot of confidence" that he could. The figures were similar when people were asked about Reagan's ability to reform the tax code or negotiate arms-control agreements with the Soviets.

The federal deficit has replaced fear of nuclear war and the state of the economy as America's most pressing concern. When read a list of potential problems and asked to name the ones that concerned them "a lot," 55% said the deficit and 51% said the economy in general.

However, only 14% expressed "a lot of confidence" that there will be presidential-congressional agreement on a budget that would reduce the shortfall significantly. Despite the fact that the deficit has more than tripled during Reagan's term, his Teflon coating seems intact: only 19% say he is most responsible for the red ink, down from 26% two months ago. More people are likely to blame Congress (27%) and past Democratic Presidents (30%). Republicans are particularly forgiving: only 6% blame Reagan for the deficit.

The more vexing question was what can be done to reduce it. Virtually no one in the poll was for a tax increase. Some 56% called for cuts in Government spending, and 36% supported a combination of budget cuts and tax hikes. More than seven out of ten believe that the poor and the elderly have suffered from program slashes, and 56% think that cuts have adversely affected blacks and the middle class. On the issue of American military strength, the survey indicated that there has been a large jump in the percentage of people who feel that military spending should not be cut substantially: 40% this year, in contrast to 29% in March 1983.

The response to Reagan's tax-reform plan was tepid. A mere 27% said they were either "very familiar" or "fairly familiar" with it. Those who knew of the plan favored it 51% to 36%, even though only 16% say they support it strongly; 52% thought they would personally pay more taxes if it were passed. Republicans were more than twice as likely as Democrats to favor the plan. One somewhat contradictory albeit understandable finding was that though Americans tend to favor the plan in general, they clearly oppose its major specific provisions. When asked about eliminating the deductions for state and local taxes, some 80% said they were opposed. Likewise, 77% said they were against having to pay taxes on any part of their fringe benefits.

Americans continue to voice support for protectionism. Given the choice between a policy of quotas and tariffs rather than reliance on free trade, 57% chose the former course. More specifically, 53% approve of a proposal to impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries that have a large trade surplus with the U.S. The poll found that 63% support such measures against Japan. For Democrats desperately seeking to steal some of Reagan's almost magical popularity, these figures could represent a dangerous temptation. Already, feeling appears to be growing in favor of raising the tariff walls as a quick way to remedy at least some of the nation's economic ills. The catch is that while people give lip service to protectionist ideas, Yankelovich has found that the sentiment is very shallow, and people's enthusiasm fades when it is pointed out that higher tariffs may result in consumers' paying more for imported goods.

The survey discovered a drop in the percentage of people whose greatest national concern is relations with the Soviet Union: 35%, down from 51% last December. Half of those polled think that Reagan has emphasized expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal rather than stressing negotiations on nuclear disarmament. A resounding 69% felt the President's emphasis should instead be on disarmament. Yet Americans are cynical about any change for the better. According to the poll, 55% think that the Soviets would not adhere to an arms-control agreement.

Public opinion on an array of specific social issues has not changed noticeably in recent years: 55% oppose making abortion illegal; 60% favor mandatory handgun registration; 75% are for the wider use of the death penalty; 69% favor a constitutional amendment permitting prayer in the classroom. The general mood of the nation may have grown more conservative in the '80s but, evidently, activists on neither the right nor the left have had much success in altering American thought on these crucial matters of our time. --By Jacob V. Lamar Jr.

Who is most responsible for the federal deficit?

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

May '85

July '85

Reagan and his Administration

26%

19%

Congress

23%

27%

Democrats before Reagan

31%

30%

What should be done?

Cut Government spending

60%

56%

Raise taxes

2%

2%

Both cut spending and raise taxes

30%

36%