Sudan a Joyful, Fragile Revival

By Pico Iyer

Suddenly, Sudan seemed renewed. The change began with drum rolls and music on state-run Radio Omdurman, after which General Abdul Rahman Suwar al Dahab, the Defense Minister, proclaimed to the country, "The government is finished. The people stand united." Within minutes, the capital city of Khartoum, which had been in a state of paralysis, sprang to life. Drivers honked their horns, radios blared, and hundreds of thousands of people poured into the streets, cheering, chanting, dancing, embracing. Policemen smiled; children, shouting, rode on the tops and trunks of cars.

Only hours earlier, Khartoum (pop. 1.4 million) had been a ghost town. Doctors, lawyers, engineers were on strike. The airport and most stores were closed. President Gaafar Nimeiri, the wily strongman who had weathered a succession of coup attempts during an almost 16-year reign, was outside the country. Now, with Nimeiri stranded in Egypt on his way back from a visit to Washington, the people exulted at his overthrow by Suwar al Dahab and the Sudanese military. Some brandished the old yellow, green and blue-striped flag that had been replaced the year Nimeiri came to power; others ripped down + pictures of the ousted leader; still others held up currency bills with the former President's face cut out of the middle. "For 16 years the real Sudanese people have been fighting this bloody regime," shouted a man in the streets, his voice hoarse from yelling. "Today the power has been given back to the people. The people are demonstrating democracy."

That, at least, was the intention. Last week, however, as the initial euphoria subsided and a new military council installed by Suwar al Dahab began to assert its power, a tangle of uncertainties remained. They were centered on Suwar al Dahab, the council's head and a once trusted aide whom Nimeiri had appointed Supreme Commander of the armed forces just two weeks before his departure for Washington. Had the new leader organized the bloodless coup in defiance of his former chief or to protect the military leadership against a takeover bid by younger, perhaps more radical officers? Would he be as good as his word in returning Africa's largest country to democracy after a transitional period of a year? How, above all, would the soft-spoken and cautious Suwar al Dahab manage to tackle the crush of problems that had buried even Africa's most hardened survivor? Said one Western diplomat: "All the factors that overwhelmed Nimeiri--unrest in the south, a deteriorating economy, drought and a flood of refugees--may well overwhelm his successors."

In foreign policy terms, the situation was no less ambiguous. Suwar al Dahab, 51, lost no time in pledging that he would maintain Nimeiri's pro-Western stance. That would allow strategically important Sudan, which is regarded by the U.S. as an important staging area for possible military operations in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, to continue receiving its allotted U.S. aid of about $260 million this year, more than any other African country except Egypt. At the same time, however, Suwar al Dahab promised to try to improve relations with two meddlesome neighbors, Libya and Ethiopia. As if hoping to enlist the new regime in his own cause, Libya's strongman, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, made a point of being the first leader to recognize Sudan's junta. "Reagan has nothing to do with Sudan," the Libyan said. "If he interferes, his nose will be cut."

The foremost question in Sudan last week was whether Suwar al Dahab's 15- member military council, composed of senior officers, would make good on the chant raised during the heady moments of the takeover: "The people and the army are one." Through much of the Nimeiri era, opposition political parties, professional groups and unions were forced underground. Last week they all bubbled to the surface again, banding together in a group that they christened the Alliance of Forces for National Salvation, distributing tracts and stating their determina- tion to reclaim their rights. To pacify them, the council ordered the arrest of high officials in the Nimeiri government, dissolved the feared state security police and ordered the release of all political prisoners.

The new leaders showed few signs of being willing to surrender control in a hurry. Hoping for an immediate return to civilian government, unions and organizations at first remained on strike. After negotiations, however, they agreed to the need for a transitional military rule and went back to work. Even so, the ruling council agreed to form a Cabinet in which civilians would occupy every seat except the Ministry of Defense. The military also promised that it would consult with the political parties throughout the period of transition, which it said would last at least a year. "The new leaders are sincere in what they are doing," said a retired officer. "But they have learned that you can't give power back just like that."

Nor can the new leadership easily quell the 10,000 guerrillas of the Sudanese People's Liberation Army who have gained ground over the past two years throughout the southern third of the country. The insurgents, representing the predominantly animist and Christian blacks of the south against the predominantly Muslim and Arab north, have cut off all but air links between the two parts of the country. Suwar al Dahab promptly sent a message to the rebels' chieftain, former army Colonel John Garang, suggesting that he was ready for talks. By the time he did, however, Garang, who has a Ph.D. in economics from Iowa State University, had already made public his suspicions of the new government. "The people's revolution has been stolen," he declared in a radio broadcast. "This is Nimeiri's regime. No matter what clothes the hyena puts on, it remains a hyena."

Suwar al Dahab must also soothe religious divisions aggravated 19 months ago when Nimeiri imposed strict Islamic law on Sudan. Under Nimeiri's draconian enforcement of the Sharia code, the country took on a strangely medieval air: public lashings and executions were reinstated, couples in the street were asked to provide proof of marriage, and thieves could expect to have a hand amputated. In the midst of the coup, the Sudanese proclaimed their resentment of the code. Suwar al Dahab, who is a devout Muslim but no fanatic, has already hinted that he may relax, though not repeal, the imposition of Islamic law. One immediate example: last week government television screened a Middle Eastern version of a Las Vegas nightclub act, complete with gyrating Lebanese dancers and a blond Syrian songstress who wore a sleeveless dress.

The south is particularly important because the area, almost as large as France, contains Sudan's most promising oil fields. That source of revenue is desperately needed by a country that has been transformed from a potential breadbasket into an economic basket case. A decade after Nimeiri embarked on a grand agricultural development program, only about 8% of the arable land is under cultivation, exports have fallen 50%, and the government is saddled with a foreign debt of $9 billion. Shortly before his ouster, Nimeiri, under pressure from the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund, imposed austerity measures that included sharp increases in the prices of bread and fuel. That show of discipline prompted Washington, two weeks ago, to free $67 million in assistance that had been frozen since mid-August. It also moved the people of Sudan to launch the general strike that brought Nimeiri down.

The economy needs particularly urgent attention. Parts of the country are suffering through the driest year of the century, a drought that could easily become as wasting as that in Ethiopia. As a result, the country is producing less and less food for more and more mouths as flocks of starving refugees crowd over the borders from parched neighbors, especially Ethiopia and Chad. Sudan is already sheltering 1.2 million refugees, and up to 4,000 newcomers arrive every day.

Nimeiri apparently has decided to extend his stay in Cairo indefinitely at the invi- tation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Last week he sent Suwar al Dahab a mes- sage wishing him good luck. The general will need just that.

With reporting by Philip Finnegan/Cairo and Tala Skari/Khartoum