American Notes Earthquakes

Scientists have refined their skills to the point where they now believe that under certain conditions they can predict an earthquake. Last week the U.S. Geological Survey for the first time pronounced an impending shake-up: the tiny ranch community of Parkfield, Calif. (pop. 34), has a more than 90% probability of being rocked within the next nine years by a tremor. Residents of the town, which lies along the San Andreas Fault, seem unconcerned. "We don't have any high-rise buildings," observes Duane Hamann, the hamlet's only schoolteacher. "We just better stay out from under the old oak tree."

But a policy of publicizing predictions for less bucolic places raises rockier questions. Should officials curtail construction and thus discourage new business? What if this kills a community's economy and the quake never comes? The USGS insists that these are decisions for state and local authorities. Besides, the science is still shaky. Says Geophysicist Allan Lindh: "Studying great quakes 150 years apart is like trying to pick horse races from watching one furlong and not even knowing which furlong you're watching." Betting a community's future on such evidence could be quite a gamble--one almost as big as ignoring the evidence.