El Salvador New Strength and Hope

By George Russell

Salvadoran President Jose Napoleon Duarte, 59, was jubilant. His center-left Christian Democratic Party had surprised even itself last week by its triumph in nationwide legislative and municipal elections. Some 1 million voters, about 59% of those eligible, ignored threats and a few minor attacks by leftist guerrillas to take part in the Palm Sunday voting. When it was over, there had been a clear shift in the country's balance of political power: the Christian Democrats appeared certain of a definite majority of seats in the 60member National Assembly. The sweeping show of support gave a badly needed boost to Duarte's reformist government; it also brought fresh hope to his bold but so far frustrated effort to find a negotiated solution to El Salvador's more than five-year-old civil war.

The full extent of the Christian Democratic victory will not be known until the official vote counting is completed this week. Based on unofficial exit & polls, however, Duarte's party appeared to have won 54% of the votes cast --enough for 32 or 33 Assembly seats, up from 24 in the previous Assembly. An estimated 37% of the ballots went to a coalition formed by the extreme right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), led by Duarte's nemesis, former Army Major Roberto d'Aubuisson, and the center-right National Conciliation Party. The rightist grouping is expected to take 22 to 25 seats; it previously held 33. The remaining seats will probably go to centrist and center-right splinter parties. In simultaneous local balloting, according to preliminary estimates, Duarte's party was winning in about 200 of 262 municipalities.

Washington greeted Duarte's assumed victory with quiet satisfaction. At a White House press conference, President Reagan declared that "President Duarte is pulling his country together and enjoys wide support from the people." On Capitol Hill, the House Foreign Affairs Committee saluted the results by relaxing strings attached to $377.9 million in military and economic aid, $54.5 million less than what the Reagan Administration requested for El Salvador this year. Democrat Michael Barnes of Maryland, a leader in the demand for tough human rights restrictions on aid to El Salvador, termed the election results "a very positive development."

The vote provoked an equally dramatic and unexpected measure of support for Duarte from the 46,000-member Salvadoran armed forces. As ballot boxes began to arrive at election headquarters in the capital of San Salvador, right- wingers led by D'Aubuisson charged that the military had conspired with the Christian Democrats to perpetrate an electoral fraud. The protest stalled official vote counting pending a ruling by the Central Election Council, a three-man body dominated by conservatives. Fears arose that the election might be invalidated.

Before the council could announce its ruling, however, the military closed ranks against the accusations. At an extraordinary press conference, the Defense Minister, General Eugenio Vides Casanova, denied the charges and underlined "the firm aim of the armed forces to comply with their constitutional commitment." With Vides Casanova as he spoke were 15 other top-ranking officers, the cream of the country's military and security hierarchy. Said Vides Casanova: "If somebody is trying to destabilize the elections, I'm sure they're not going to succeed." Five hours later the fraud protest was rejected.

! Before the Palm Sunday vote, political observers had given the Christian Democrats little chance for a strong showing, certainly not for a majority in the Assembly. That judgment was based on a feeling that Duarte's government somehow had run out of steam. Popular expectations were at a fever pitch last October, when the President held a historic first meeting with leaders of the left-wing Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (F.M.L.N.) and its political arm, the Democratic Revolutionary Front (F.D.R.), to discuss ways of ending the war. A second meeting in November led nowhere. The chief reason: Duarte's government insists that the rebels lay down their arms as a first step toward rejoining the democratic process, while the F.M.L.N./F.D.R. demands a place for its fighters within the Salvadoran military and a share of political power before elections.

On the legislative front, conser vatives had nibbled away at Duarte's power and authority. Lacking a legislative majority, the Christian Democrats were unable to prevent the opposition from blocking the reform of El Salvador's moribund justice system or from slashing the executive branch's operating budget. The strongwilled President did not help things by refusing to seek deals with the opposition when it might have advanced his political aims. Said a veteran opposition figure: "He doesn't look for cooperation."

The opposition parties made a mistake, however, when they tried to turn the bitter, two-month election campaign into a referendum on Duarte. They dinned home the idea that a vote for Duarte's party was a vote for the F.M.L.N. rebels, and ARENA's D'Aubuisson habitually called the Christian Democrats "the green stain," referring to the party's traditional election color. But ARENA suffered a noticeable setback in February when one of D'Aubuisson's associates was arrested in Texas with eight suitcases containing $6 million in cash: the Christian Democrats seized on the event with full-page ads in local newspapers.

A bigger factor in Duarte's favor may be the state of the war. Bolstered by 40 UH-1H helicopters and two AC-47 aerial gunships provided by the U.S., the Salvadoran army is both better equipped and somewhat more aggressive than before. According to military spokesmen, 40 to 60 rebels surrender each month and even more guerrillas are simply laying down their arms and going home. Yet, other rebels are still joining up; estimates of the number of remaining insurgents vary from 5,000 to 12,000.

The F.M.L.N. also seems to have adopted new tactics, or, rather, old ones. After a period in which the insurgents fought increasing numbers of pitched battles with the army, they now appear to have reverted to more classic guerrilla methods. When faced with superior firepower, they retreat; when the army moves on, they regroup in their old haunts. Last week, however, the army claimed a major victory over the elusive rebels. A military spokesman contended that one of the country's most important guerrilla commanders, Joachin Villalobos, of the group known as the People's Revolutionary Army, had been shot and perhaps killed in eastern El Salvador. Rebel spokesmen issued denials.

Only infrequently in recent months have the rebels attempted large operations. One sizable attack came three weeks ago, on the slopes of the San Salvador volcano that looms over the capital. Anywhere from 100 to 400 rebels attacked a communications outpost on the mountain, inflicting seven casualties before retreating.

With such rare exceptions, the current low intensity of the conflict may have reinforced the longing among Salvadorans for more permanent tranquillity. That yearning may have been the most significant element in the Christian Democrats' victory. As Francisco Chicas, a factory worker in the San Salvador slum of Mejicanos, put it, "There has been too much suffering in this country. Duarte at least has started to talk to the guerrillas. We need to support him so that he will feel confident."

Duarte has confidence aplenty: the question is whether he can dampen El Salvador's passions or, instead, will further inflame them. One concern: too much flaunting by the President of his new strength might lead to an upsurge in death-squad activity by right-wing extremists. Last week the President took pains to show that his aim will be to encourage moderation. Said he: "We're going to build a government of tolerance, not a sectarian government." Most of his countrymen seem to agree with that aim.

With reporting by Ricardo Chavira and J.T. Johnson/San Salvador