Situation: Stalemate

Iran last week announced an offensive against Iraq in the flat wasteland to the east of Baghdad. Iraq announced that the invaders had been driven back. Whatever the real out come, the battle marked a resumption of a ground war that had been stalled since last February. Nonetheless, the encounter did not seem to be the "final offensive" that Iran's Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini has been threatening to launch for the past eight months.

Iran does not seem to be in a position to strike a conclusive blow against its enemy. Estimates by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies suggest that Iraq has reversed an initial Iranian advantage and now leads Iran by more than 6 to 1 in jet fighters, by nearly 5 to 1 in tanks and by almost 4 to 1 in heavy guns. By relentlessly attacking oil tankers in the gulf, Iraq has sharply reduced Iran's petroleum exports, though it has not yet crippled them. Another Iraqi advantage is that its morale these days is at a wartime high. Boasts Major General Maher Abed al Rashid of the Iraqi Third Army: "Let Iran attack with 200,000 or half a million. None will return alive."