Who Has the Upper Hand?

As the two superpowers consider talks about controlling weapons in space, the question arises: Which side is ahead? In antisatellite (ASAT) technology, the Soviet Union already has a crude ground-launched system that can destroy satellites orbiting at relatively low altitudes. But the U.S. is on the verge of developing a far superior system. As for the Star Wars idea of using ASAT technology as part of a ballistic-missile defense that would attempt to intercept enemy missiles before they can deliver their nuclear payloads, the U.S. has a solid lead in the infrared guidance that would be used.

The U.S. has monitored at least 20 tests of the Soviet ASAT weapon: a 150-ft.-long S59 rocket, which uses radar to home in on its target. It is not very effective at altitudes beyond 1,000 miles. All but 18 of the 100-odd U.S. satellites orbit higher than that, and some key ones are 22,300 miles away (where they remain in geostationary orbit over a single spot on earth). The Soviet rocket would take up to 90 minutes to intercept a target on the weapon's first orbit. Because it uses radar, the system is vulnerable to electronic countermeasures. The Soviets have tested infrared homing devices, which are not detectable, but so far these have failed to hit their targets.

The U.S. is developing a 17-ft.-long, two-stage ASAT rocket launched into space from high-flying F-15 jets. The miniaturized infrared guidance device is so sensitive to temperatures that it can detect the presence of a foot-square block of ice in space at 500 miles. The F-15 can get airborne, launch its rocket and intercept a satellite within ten minutes. Concludes the congressional Office of Technology Assessment: "The U.S. air-launched ASAT weapon now undergoing testing is clearly technically superior to the present generation of Soviet ground-launched ASATs."

Aside from who is ahead, who is most vulnerable? Partly because of the U.S.'s technological edge, 70% of its military communications are now routed via satellites, compared with an undisclosed but much smaller percentage for the Soviets. "Without these satellites we can scarcely take off," claims an Air Force officer. "The modern Navy travels not by stars but by satellite," sums up a Navy captain.