A Heartbeat Away

Now that the quadrennial vice-presidential sweepstakes are at hand, it is worth remembering that a political ticket nearly always wins or loses on the popularity of the presidential candidate. Says Duke University Political Scientist James David Barber: "There is no clear evidence that the Vice President pulls much in the election except as a piece of the presidential candidate's image." Indeed, the importance of the No. 2 nominee may rest in how and why he or she was selected. Notes Hamilton Jordan, Jimmy Carter's chief strategist: "It is the first time people get to see the candidate make a substantive decision."

Voter reaction to a candidate's choice for Veep can be measurably negative. The revelation in 1972 that George McGovern's little-known running mate, Senator Thomas Eagleton, had undergone electroshock therapy doomed whatever tiny chance of success the Democrats had. In the wake of the furor, which resulted in Eagleton's being replaced by Sargent Shriver, one poll showed confidence in McGovern plummeting by 25%. In 1952 Richard Nixon's alleged association with a political slush fund became an embarrassment for Dwight Eisenhower, though not a fatal one. More recently, Senator Robert Dole was judged by some pollsters to be a drag on Gerald Ford's 1976 campaign because he alienated voters with barbed rhetoric.

Some strategists think that the selection of a Vice President should be viewed as an exercise in damage control. Reason: polls often show that candidates score higher ratings on their own than with any likely running mate. Says Ted Van Dyk, an aide to Hubert Humphrey in 1968: "Almost nobody helps you."

Actually, Humphrey's choice for No. 2, Senator Edmund Muskie, did help the ticket in one way: he delivered his home state of Maine to the Democrats for only the third time in this century. Traditionally, the ability to serve up his own state has been the minimal campaign boost expected of a running mate, and sometimes the only one: when Chester Arthur ran for Veep in 1880 on a ticket headed by James Garfield, he did not venture out of New York for the entire campaign--and carried it. In 1960, Pollster Louis Harris found that Lyndon Johnson added a crucial 4 percentage points to John Kennedy's standing in Texas, which was essential to a Democratic victory. However, not every running mate comes with a home-field advantage: since 1952, the 16 vice-presidential candidates have delivered their own states only eleven times.

But while Mondale's eventual choice may turn out to be only a modest plus or minus, the selection certainly bears watching. History shows that Vice Presidents are not doomed to obscurity: eight have replaced deceased Presidents, and eight have gone on to win the presidency on their own.