Reverses and End Runs

By Ed Magnuson

Mondale appears to be in command after a hectic first half

It was halftime. Time to catch a fleeting breath, recall the plays that had worked, assess the fumbles, analyze the opponent's weaknesses and plot a second-half strategy to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Walter Mondale looked back at the grueling, wildly erratic first half and declared in Philadelphia: "I have shown that I have the guts and the steel necessary to fight back under tough circumstances." Looking toward the imminent showdown, Gary Hart vowed at a pep rally in Denver: "When we come back out for the second half, you're going to see some long bombs, you're going to see some end runs, you're going to see some flat passes and some reverses."

Both combatants could take pride in their play so far. The Colorado Senator had come from a lowly sixth place among eight competitors and had raced through the field to overtake the superbly organized front runner. Then Hart faltered. Mondale, almost sidelined by a string of upsets beginning in New Hampshire, last week capped a spectacular comeback with a big win in Pennsylvania. Although Hart leads in state primary and caucus victories, 15 to 14, the former Vice President now holds almost a 2-to-1 lead in delegates (see chart). While he claims that he relishes the role of a feisty underdog, Mondale is the clear leader once again.

A few daring political experts were even ready to consider Hart's chances for the nomination hopeless. "The impulse that gave rise to Gary Hart is as strong and powerful as ever," contends Pollster Daniel Yankelovich. "But the man didn't live up to the urge. He represented a wish, a gesture of hope, but the sober appraisal of the voters is that he is not ready. There is no reason to believe this race will turn yet again." Declares veteran Democratic Strategist Ted Van Dyk, head of a Washington-based think tank: "Hart shattered his image. Suddenly, he was trying to out-promise Mondale. He tore up the snapshot that forms in voters' minds of every candidate. He can paste it back together, but it will never be the same."

Those assessments may be too sweeping in a year in which voter sentiment has seemed so volatile. Still, it was the Hart team that faced by far the greater need for a halftime readjustment of its game plan. Pennsylvania culminated a string of Hart defeats in the populous industrial Northern states from Illinois to New York that Democrats will need to upset Ronald Reagan in November.

With his triumph in Pennsylvania, Mondale demonstrated again, as he had the previous week in New York, that he can put together the traditional coalition of core Democrats--the elderly, union workers, the poor and local party leaders. Beyond that, he cut into the presumed Hart strengths among younger, better-educated and career-oriented voters. Mondale won handily, taking 47% of the vote to Hart's 35% and Jesse Jackson's 17%.

More than in any previous primary, labor delivered for Mondale. According to an ABC exit poll, nearly half of all the Pennsylvania voters came from union households, and 52% of them voted for Mondale. The AFL-CIO, which endorsed a primary presidential candidate this year for the first time, was spurred into hyperaction by the growing perception that its union label might actually be a political liability. Warned Frank McGrath, a leading AFL-CIO political organizer in the Middle Atlantic states: "The candidates and the media have made labor the issue. If Mondale loses, it's our fault." Labor was also goaded in Pennsylvania by a politically foolish Hart campaign tactic. Despite the state's large union membership and its high unemployment (8.9%), some Hart TV ads implied that Mondale was a tool of "special interests," which unionists consider, quite accurately, a code word for organized labor.

Jackson came out of Pennsylvania still a formidable force. He won three-quarters of the state's black vote, which brought him an outright victory in Philadelphia even though the city's new black mayor, W Wilson Goode, supported Mondale. Said Jackson at a victory party in the City of Brotherly Love: "The old minorities in coalition are the new majority. Our time has come. There is a new dynamic operating in American politics." But despite his attempts to position himself as the candidate most opposed to military spending and nuclear power, Jackson has yet to show that his self-proclaimed "Rainbow Coalition" is not pretty monochromatic; he received only 4% of the white vote.

Jackson's biggest problem is the continuing controversy over his connection with Louis Farrakhan, leader of the black Muslim sect Nation of Islam. Farrakhan publicly threatened Milton Coleman of the Washington Post for having reported Jackson's use of "Hymie" to refer to Jews. Farrakhan, who also had threatened harm to Jews if they caused "harm" to Jackson because of his disparaging words, said menacingly of Coleman and his wife: "At this point no physical harm... One day soon we will punish you with death." Last week he insisted that those words were not meant as a threat to the Colemans. Reporters then discovered that Farrakhan in the same March 11 broadcast had also called Hitler "a very great man" who "rose Germany up from nothing," while adding, "I'm not proud of Hitler's evils." When quizzed about this last week at a Washington press conference, Farrakhan did not retreat, claiming, "He was indeed a great man but also wicked."

Jackson has refused to disavow Farrakhan flatly, arguing that he should not be held accountable for someone else's remarks. Yet he continued to refer to Farrakhan as "a surrogate" or, later, "a supporter." Asked about the Hitler remarks, Jackson said he did not "know the context" of Farrakhan's statement. "I find nothing great about Hitler," Jackson said. "I find everything about him despicable."

A second-half comeback by Hart is far from inconceivable. But it will be difficult. Mondale is past the halfway point on his drive toward the 1,967 delegates needed to win the nomination at San Francisco in July. To catch up to Mondale from his present 571 delegates by the end of the primary season, Hart will have to win roughly two out of every three delegates to be chosen in the remaining primaries and caucuses. Realistically, his better hope is simply to keep Mondale from reaching the magic number, which would happen if the former Vice President fails to capture just over half of the delegates still at stake.

"We're headed into our territory, folks," Hart assured his supporters last week, referring to the fact that twelve states west of the Mississippi River will soon hold caucuses or primaries. Generally, that is indeed friendlier ground for Hart. Yet out of the 1,670 delegates still to be chosen, 967 of them are from states west of the Mississippi, and of those, just 563 are truly in the geographical West. As voters were marking ballots in Pennsylvania, Hart pulled back from predicting that he would win a majority of delegates before the convention. "The contest gets down to one thing," he said. "It's not just who can get the most delegate votes--although I intend to get the most delegate votes--but who can broaden the base of the party."

The Hart camp held a series of half-time fund-raising and strategy sessions last week, and more were scheduled for this week. As is usually the case when a campaign seems to be slipping, there were rumors of dissension and possible staff shakeups. Some advisers urged Hart to strike out more directly at Mondale in the coming contests. The tactic worked in New Hampshire. But other aides pointed out that this began to backfire as Mondale retaliated sharply, especially in New York. They argued that Hart's loftier themes were submerged in the catfight with Mondale.

Hart's press secretary, Kathy Bushkin, candidly assessed her candidate's problem. "The voters really like his message," she said, "but they're not sure he's the one they want to carry it out. They haven't learned enough about Gary yet to know him." Although it is late for such basic tactics, the Hart advisers intend to run more biographical ads just to familiarize voters with the man. "We've got to get across the fact that Gary's a for-real U.S. Senator with ten years of experience," explains Aide Mark Hogan. "He's a decent, compassionate, helluva nice guy."

If Hart heeds most of his advisers, he will avoid getting too personal in attacking Mondale. "If there were no more personal assaults anywhere in the campaign, we'd be better off," observes Hogan. Hart will concentrate on posing the question "Who's most likely to beat Ronald Reagan?" The strategy is to show that Hart can attract independent and moderate Republicans, whose votes will be needed in November. Hart has, in fact, done better in those states where primaries have not been restricted to Democrats.

To get himself back in the race, Hart must sweep the West, rack up a big win in Texas on May 5 (154 delegates at stake) and top it all with triumphs in the June 5 primaries in New Jersey (97) and California (the biggest of all at 278). Hart might then keep Mondale from coming to the convention with a majority of delegates. More significant, Hart's aides assume, their man's closing momentum would be reflected in polls showing that he would be the only candidate with a chance to beat Reagan. Faced with that reality, the roughly 1,200 pivotal delegates (perhaps 250 for Jackson, 568 elected and party officials and some 350 uncommitted) would rally behind Hart.

Mondale's strategists, as well as some independent political pros, consider that a pipedream. They see no reason to expect that Hart will win in Texas, New Jersey and California, and view Ohio's high-stakes election on May 8 (140 delegates) as likely to stall any budding Hart momentum. More broadly, they doubt that Hart can develop a following so steadfast that it would prevail in any preconvention bargaining for the nomination. Contends one Mondale adviser: "Hart's biggest problem is that the young professionals have no real loyalty to him. He really hasn't created much of a personal political following."

Mondale exhibited typical caution as he campaigned in Missouri, which will hold caucuses this week. "I now have a chance--I don't know how much of a chance--to get the delegates I need for the nomination before the convention," he said. Still, the Mondale staff has been startled before by the campaign's unpredictability. Said one of his aides: "We're pausing now to dream up the biggest problems we might face." One of them, said Campaign Chairman James Johnson, is that "everyone will be watching to see how we handle prosperity." Running ahead seems to carry a jinx.

The Mondale strategy is not likely to change in light of its recent success. He intends to keep applying pressure on Hart, while stepping up his attacks on Reagan. "We're not changing anything," said a top Mondale strategist. "Hart is the one who needs a new issue, not us." Contends Joseph Trippi, Mondale's Pennsylvania coordinator: "If it keeps going the way it has--we win a couple and he wins a couple--we look very good." Looking back, Mondale admits that his initial reluctance to respond to Hart's attacks on him was "the most significant failure of the campaign." Said one adviser: "We're most likely to decide to keep on running hard against Hart everywhere, even in his strong states." The Mondale team is surprised that Hart is banking on Texas as part of his catch-up strategy. "But if he wants to make it the Alamo, that's fine with us," says a senior strategist. In fact, the complex Texas delegate-selection process is suited to Mondale's well-organized machine. Democrats first must cast votes for local and congressional candidates in primary contests in order to be admitted on the same day to caucuses at which the delegates are chosen. Mondale has hired Dwayne Holman, a savvy aide to Texas Governor Mark White, to head his state drive.

Hart expects to score in Texas with his vote against the windfall-profits tax on oil, which Mondale used effectively against him in the industrial North. Mondale aides, perhaps naively, believe that workers in the Texas oil industries are likely to applaud Mondale's support of the tax on their employers and the populist themes he intends to stress. Heavy unemployment (up to 25%) in the Rio Grande valley should help Mondale. Hart, on the other hand, may appeal to the independent-minded voters in the booming cities of Dallas and Austin.

In the Ohio primary on May 8, Jackson's strength in black congressional districts of Cleveland, Cincinnati and Columbus could hurt Mondale if his race with Hart is close. Labor is strong (about 16% of registered Democrats), unemployment is high (10.2%), and Ohio looks too much like neighboring Pennsylvania to encourage Hart.

If Hart does make a comeback in May, the June 5 primaries in disparate California and New Jersey will be crucial. Under the rules in both states, the winner in each congressional district could get all of that district's delegates. New Jersey would seem to be congenial to Mondale, since it is highly industrialized and union members may account for nearly half of the vote. Hart could benefit from the state's low unemployment (6.8%) and from Jackson's ability to draw blacks (12% of the population) away from Mondale.

In California, Hart's aides see their man winning big. "It could be a shutout," predicts Campaign Strategist Eli Seigel, even while conceding that Jackson will be heavily favored in four largely black districts. Declares California Pollster Mervin Field: "If Hart can't make it here, he can't make it anywhere." The politically erratic state is open to Hart-like innovations, and its Democrats regard themselves as more conservative on economic issues than Mondale. A Mondale aide theorizes, unkindly, that California may not be ready for another Jerry Brown-like "moonbeam" candidate, while a powerful California Democrat contends that the state will not go for "an old Hubert Humphrey retread, encumbered by old pols and Jimmy Carter." California could turn into a nasty brawl.

But with Mondale's nomination looking more and more likely, a continued personal feud could hurt the party and wound Mondale and Hart. Says Pollster Yankelovich: "Mondale should begin to see Hart as the man for the second spot. Mondale is still underestimating the potency of this generational force." Likewise, it is now in Hart's interest to make sure that he does not poison his own chances to be the nominee in 1988 by making too many enemies in 1984. But Hart is too proud to yield without a full fight, and Mondale is too uncertain of the nomination to risk easing the pressure on his foe. While Republicans watch gleefully, the Democratic scrap continues to test the mettle and wisdom of the men who want to take on Ronald Reagan in November.

--By Ed Magnuson. Reported by SamAllis with Mondale and David Beckwith with Hart, with other bureaus

With reporting by SamAllis with Mondale and David Beckwith with Hart, with other bureaus