Faint Hints of an East-West Thaw

By Evan Thomas

Cooling the nerve-gas race and warming to nuclear arms talks

In the three weeks since Konstantin Chernenko succeeded Yuri Andropov as leader of the Soviet Union, U.S. policymakers and Kremlinologists have peered closely East and West for portents of hope. Last week they thought they detected several encouraging signs of Soviet movement on arms control.

The most concrete step came when the Soviets announced that they were prepared, at least in principle, to let international inspectors verify the destruction of chemical weapons within the U.S.S.R. The question of on-site verification has for a year stalled negotiations to ban chemical weapons. Missiles can be detected by satellites or sophisticated electronic eavesdropping, but chemical munitions can be checked only by visiting the factories where they are made. Said President Reagan at his press conference Wednesday night: "We are very hopeful that [Chernenko may be] willing to agree to on-site inspection with regard to chemical warfare. We think this is a good sign, and we have let him know that we want better relations, we want to sit down and try to resolve some of the problems that we have."

The apparent Soviet concession came at a time of rising concern about the possibility of a chemical arms race. In 1981 the U.S. charged that the Soviets were using chemical warfare against rebels in Afghanistan. By 1983, the U.S. claimed, Soviet-made toxic weapons had killed 10,000 people in Afghanistan, Laos and Kampuchea. The Reagan Administration has asked Congress for money to modernize the U.S. stockpile of toxic weaponry.

By coincidence, the U.S. announced last week that Soviet use of toxic gas had dramatically declined. In a report to the United Nations, the State Department said the U.S. could not confirm any chemical warfare by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan last year. It added that Soviet-backed governments in Laos and Kampuchea had used less lethal toxic weapons against local dissidents.*

Some arms-control experts speculate that the Soviets had cut down on chemical warfare because of U.S. pressure. Some scientists, however, doubt that the Soviets ever used toxic weapons in Southeast Asia. "Yellow rain," they say, was actually bee excrement. Now, these critics suggest, the U.S. is simply using a more stringent standard of proof.

In Moscow, a pair of visiting U.S. Senators thought they saw signs of a new Soviet interest in an old U.S. nuclear arms-control proposal. Republican William Cohen of Maine and Democrat Joseph Biden of Delaware met with Soviet leaders last week to discuss the so-called build-down concept, which would require the two superpowers to destroy one or more old nuclear weapons for each new one they make. The idea, first proposed by Cohen just over a year ago, was embraced by the Reagan Administration and incorporated into a new arms-control offer shortly before the Geneva talks broke off in December.

The Senators explained that build-down would allow the Soviets to trade reductions in large, land-based ICBMs, in which they have a big lead over the U.S., for limits on bombers and cruise missiles, in which the U.S. has the edge. "If you don't like the ratios or percentages," the Senators said, "then make your own proposal." Cohen told Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Georgi Kornienko: "You can call it the Kornienko Plan, I don't care. But don't stay away from the table." Asked by the Soviets whether the build-down proposal was just posturing by the President to win reelection, Democrat Biden stated, "I'm telling you, this is a good deal." He added that build-down enjoyed broad support in Congress and stood a good chance of ratification, whoever occupied the White House.

The Soviets showed "a willingness, even an eagerness to look for ways to resolve our differences," Cohen said later. The Senators had expected to confer mostly with members of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. But as the talks went on, they began to see high-level officials--who, to Cohen's surprise, seemed to be studying the details of the build-down plan for the first time.

The accession of Chernenko gives the Soviets an opportunity to back out of a negotiating corner. Andropov had made it clear that the Soviets would not return to the Geneva talks as long as Pershing II and cruise missiles were deployed in Europe. But Chernenko is not so closely identified with that stand.

Paul Nitze, chief negotiator at the talks on intermediate-range missiles in Europe, has had doubts that the new Soviet leadership is really ready to return to the table. But General Edward Rowny, who is chief negotiator at the strategic arms talks, disagrees: "I get the definite impression that among the experts, the people that I deal with, they're saying, 'Look, there ought to be a way to reach an agreement.' "

Whichever way Chernenko goes, he looks to be taking charge. It was revealed in Moscow last week that he has assumed the title of Chairman of the Defense Council, which controls Soviet defense and security affairs. With his portrait dominating political gatherings and his writings prominently displayed in bookstores, he is assuming many of the public trappings of power that Andropov disdained. He is also showing who is boss.

Whether Chernenko will use that power any differently is another matter entirely. As a protege of former Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev, he may believe in detente. His gesture on chemical weapons was encouraging, but it is too soon to make any sure judgments. Says a senior Disarmament Agency official: "Let's see how they follow up. The Soviets have a way of making a two-step look like a ballet." --By Evan Thomas. Reported by Erik Amfitheatrof/ Moscow and Barrett Seaman/ Washington

*The U.S. has been widely criticized for its use of the herbicide Agent Orange as a defoliant in Southeast Asia. In another report released last week, the Air Force concluded that there is "insufficient evidence" to prove Agent Orange caused health problems. Thousands of Viet Nam veterans have sought disability payments for ailments they attribute to the defoliant, including malignant growths and birth defects.

With reporting by Erik Amfitheatrof, Barrett Seaman