The Front Runner Is Striding Out

A TIME poll shows more losses than gains for the other candidates

The camps of the underdog candidates have long argued that if people only knew more about their men, Walter Mondale's lead would dwindle. Not so, according to a poll done for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc.* Between December and February, the number of undecided Democratic and independent voters declined from 26% to 14%. Those who said they would vote for Mondale increased from 34% to 50%, while no other candidate gained more than 1 point.

Asked whether Mondale would make an "acceptable" President, 80% of Democrats said yes. Of the other candidates, only Jesse Jackson showed an impressive increase in acceptability, probably attributable to freeing Naval Aviator Robert Goodman from Syria. But half of the Democrats still find Jackson unacceptable.

For the rest, to know them is apparently to dislike them. Only 15% of Democratic voters now say they are unfamiliar with John Glenn, down from 28% in September. But the percentage of those finding Glenn acceptable stayed the same, while the percentage who found him unacceptable doubled. Most voters said no when asked if Glenn was a "dynamic and exciting candidate" or had "the land of experience he needs to do a good job." Similarly, Democratic voters familiar with Gary Hart rose from 37% to 44% between September and February, yet his acceptability as a candidate did not increase, and his disapproval rating jumped sharply.

A majority (57%) think that Mondale has locked up the Democratic nomination. Only about one-third attribute Mondale's lead purely to personal popularity. An equal number cited his strong campaign organization and his support from party leaders and interest groups. Mondale's wide name recognition serves him well: while 74% said they were "aware" that he is a candidate, only 59% were able to name Glenn without prompting, and only 15% could name Hart.

Mondale may be trouncing his Democratic opponents, but he trails President Reagan 51% to 41% among all voters. Reagan manages to siphon off 26% of Democratic voters, and independent voters favor him over Mondale by 62% to 26%.

There is increasing evidence that the gender gap is real; the President does not draw as well among women as he does among men. While he enjoys a 68% favorable rating among men, the figure for women is 55%. Among Republicans, Reagan is just as popular with women as with men (87%), but there is a gap of 16 points (52% vs. 36%) between Democratic men and women. When asked their objections to Reagan, more women (53%) give his opposition to the Equal Rights Amendment than any other reason. Fear that he will lead the country into war comes second (46%).

Among the population as a whole, Reagan is riding a wave of good feeling. More people (68%) say things are going well in the country than in any other period since 1977. At the same time, however, only 36% say they have a "lot" of confidence in future prosperity. Interestingly, the percentage citing excessive Government spending as their No. 1 concern rose from 6% to 14%. The only consolation for Reagan is that voters are even less sanguine about the Democrats' ability to cut the $183.7 billion deficit.

*Based on a telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters taken from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2. The potential sampling error is plus or minus 3%.