Hard Times

Israel's inflation nears 200% You see this carton of cigarettes?"

asked an unemployed young man in the southern Israeli town of Mizpe Ra mon. "I paid for it this time, but next time I may have to steal it." That scene, shown on Israeli television last week, is typical of the tales of economic woe that have be come standard fare. A few days earlier the government announced that prices had risen 11.6% in December alone, bringing the inflation rate for 1983 to a record 190.7%. That prompted Finance Minister Yigal Cohen-Orgad to impose new rules barring Israelis from holding or taking out of the country more than $2,000 a year in foreign currency. He announced that Israeli workers would get a cost-of-living increase of only 9.1% next month, not enough to keep up with inflation.

As a result of the austerity policies imposed after Yitzhak Shamir succeeded Menachem Begin as Prime Minister last October, Israel's unemployment is also an increasing concern. Cohen-Orgad acknowledges that the fig ure may triple, to 30,000 (2.5%), this year. There has already been widespread la bor unrest. Defense minis try employees have been on a work slowdown for two months. Last week the nation's railroad workers went out on strike, while postal employees caused major disruptions in mail service and all 60,000 of the country's civil servants went on strike for three hours.

To quell the protests, the finance ministry has worked out an agreement with the Histadrut, the labor federation respon sible for 90% of Israel's public servants and 700,000 private-sector employees. Ev ery worker will get an additional $43 a month to help compensate for inflation, at least until April 1 , when the present set of wage agreements expires.

Shamir's Likud coalition has come under fire from within its own ranks as a result of its economic policies. Tami, a three-member coalition partner, has threatened to bolt the government if bud get cuts drastically affect the poor. Another Likud member successfully introduced a motion in the Knesset demanding a de bate on whether new settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip should be fro zen because they are too costly.

Responding to the worsening econo my, the opposition Labor alignment pre sented a no-confidence motion, which is due to be voted on in the Knesset this week.

Although Shamir's coalition is expected to survive (it holds 64 seats, vs. 56 for Labor), a further deterioration could provoke defections, forcing Shamir to dissolve parliament. A poll published this month showed that if elections were held now, the Likud would trail Labor, 41 seats to 57.