Hearts, Minds and Helicopters

Washington watches nervously as Nimeiri battles a rebellion

Sudanese President Gaafar Nimeiri, 54, launched the new era by ceremoniously pouring a can of beer into the Nile. Five million dollars' worth of liquor followed, as thousands watched from the riverbank, chanting, "Wise decision, Gaafar." Thus did Sudan pass under Islamic law this fall. At a stroke, alcohol was banned, and the harsh strictures of the Sharia eliminated the last vestiges of Western-style criminal justice. Thenceforth Muslim adulterers would be stoned, murderers beheaded and boozers flogged (40 lashes for Muslims, 30 for disorderly non-Muslims). The most graphic evidence of the change to date came two weeks ago, when a convicted Muslim thief had his right hand amputated while a crowd of 500 looked on at Khartoum's Kober Prison.

The return to Islamic purity was a two-edged sword for Nimeiri. It won him widespread popularity among Sudan's Arab Muslim majority, but it pushed his divided, impoverished nation of 22 million a step closer to civil war. Sudan's largely black, non-Muslim minorities, who inhabit the southern part of the country, had already been seething with resentment over what they regarded as persistent discrimination by the Arab-dominated central government. Encouraged by Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi and by the Marxist government of neighboring Ethiopia, pockets of armed rebellion have erupted in a number of southern regions. While fighting to subdue the rebels, Nimeiri must protect himself from periodic attempted coups. As one U.S. State Department official puts it, "We've got some concerns about the stability of the country."

The Reagan Administration has a strategic stake in Sudan's wellbeing. Under Nimeiri, the country has strengthened its ties with Egypt, America's major Arab ally in the Middle East. Sudan shields Egypt's southern flank from attack and safeguards the upper reaches of Egypt's economic mainstay, the Nile River. In recent years, Sudan has also served as a buffer against the designs of Libya's Gaddafi, whom Nimeiri derides as having "two personalities, both of them evil." Finally, Sudan's key location might make it an ideal staging area for U.S. forces in the event of a military threat to the Persian Gulf. Last February, President Reagan dispatched four AWACS surveillance planes to Egypt in response to anxiety about a Libyan military threat; in August, Reagan sent a personal message to Nimeiri assuring him that "aggression against Sudan will not be tolerated."

The bitter struggle between Sudan's Arab north and African south has a long and bloody history--one, ironically, that Nimeiri thought he had ended more than a decade ago. After overthrowing a civilian government led by Mohammed Mahgoub in 1969, Nimeiri negotiated an end to 17 years of bloody civil war in 1972. Nimeiri has remained in power since then, staging three referendums that have overwhelmingly returned him to office. Residents of the southern part of the country, however, cite numerous grievances. They complain, for example, that when the Chevron Oil Co. discovered oil in the south, the government made plans to pipe it out of the territory rather than build a refinery on the spot, which would have generated jobs in the economically depressed region. In addition, some southerners fear that the Jonglei Canal, a huge project to divert water northward from the White Nile, will turn parts of the south into a desert.

The discontent boiled over last May when the government tried to rotate southern army units to the north. The troops mutinied, charging that the move violated the 1972 accord. In crushing that uprising the government killed at least 70 mutineers. But the unrest continued. On Nov. 15, southern rebels kidnaped eleven British, French and Pakistani workers from the oilfields and the Jonglei Canal.

The guerrillas demanded an end to both projects as well as to all French aid to Khartoum. The hostages were soon released, a result, diplomats say, of secret talks between the companies and the rebels. The government claims its forces rescued the hostages, but most analysts dismiss that as face-saving.

| Nimeiri does not have much to be proud of as far as the economy is concerned. Though Su|dan has some 200 million acres of arable land, only 10% of it is under cultivation. Some farmers have given up trying to market their produce because of the country's abominable road system. Shortages of skilled labor and raw materials have forced factories to operate at a fraction of capacity. Electrical blackouts are commonplace; one outage in Khartoum this past summer lasted 24 days. Sudan has rescheduled its foreign debt (currently some $8 billion) five times since 1978.

Nonetheless, Nimeiri still appears to be in control, even though more than 20 Sudanese army officers have been arrested, apparently for plotting to seize power, since last August. The Reagan Administration has tried to help Nimeiri, providing more than $200 million in economic and military aid in 1983. The Sudanese leader has been pressing the U.S. for more arms for his poorly equipped troops, claiming the need to defend against possible attacks by Libya and Ethiopia. The U.S. is reluctant to comply, however, suspecting that the requested weapons might actually be used against the southern insurgents. "Egypt also has failed to respond, possibly due to misgivings over Nimeiri's Islamization campaign. Helicopter gunships, in particular, would aid the Sudanese army's antiguerrilla campaign, which becomes virtually immobilized during the rainy season. Nimeiri has partly solved that problem by secretly ordering helicopters from Rumania, but his security situation remains critical. As civil war threatens, the U.S. has good reason to worry about the stability of its Sudanese ally.