Looking For a Way Out

By James Kelly

Jackson's coup creates an opening in Lebanon

The scene was historical theater at its best, complete with tears, smiles and the unlikeliest of costars. There, standing in the White House Rose Garden and surrounded by beaming relatives, was Navy Lieut. Robert Goodman, dramatically home after a month in a Syrian jail. There was the Rev. Jesse Jackson, the Democratic presidential aspirant whose audacious diplomacy won Goodman his freedom. And there, in the middle, was Ronald Reagan, who a week earlier had declined to take Jackson's calls before the Baptist minister left for Damascus. But now the President graciously thanked the amateur envoy for his "personal mission of mercy." Any questions about Syrian President Hafez Assad's motives for releasing Goodman or the propriety of Jackson's engaging in foreign negotiations were lost in the fervor of the moment. As Reagan put it, "You don't quarrel with success."

The diplomatic coup earned political points for Jackson (see following story) and raised hopes for a settlement in Lebanon that would allow the Reagan Administration gracefully to withdraw the 1,800 U.S. Marines from Beirut. Making no mention of its own 40,000 soldiers in eastern Lebanon, the Syrian government said its gesture should prompt Washington "to end its military involvement in Lebanon." Though Reagan remained opposed to a U.S. pullout now, he did send a thank-you message to Assad saying that "this is an opportune moment to put all the issues on the table."

The liberation of Goodman at least eased tensions between the two countries, whose worsening relations deteriorated sharply in December when Syrian anti-aircraft batteries fired on U.S. reconnaissance planes over eastern Lebanon. During a retaliatory strike the next day, two U.S. fighter-bombers were shot down and Goodman was captured. The new mood could be seen in small ways: Syrian television and newspapers carried the full text of Reagan's note to Assad, while the U.S. President expressed a willingness to meet with the Syrian leader. Donald Rumsfeld, Reagan's special envoy to the Middle East, is now expected to see Assad on his current swing through the region.

The improving climate comes at an important time. Lebanese President Amin Gemayel is engaged in delicate negotiations with his country's brawling factions over a security pact that would extend his military authority beyond Beirut and strengthen the buffer zones between Christians and the Shi'ite Muslims and Druze. Washington is pushing the plan not only because it will enhance the chances for a lasting cease-fire but because it could provide an opportunity to redeploy the Marines to safer ground. Two of America's partners in the Multi-National Force also were increasingly restive about being pinned down in Beirut. France announced that in late January it would transfer one-fourth of its 1,750-man garrison to rejoin the United Nations Force in southern Lebanon. Italy plans to cut its contingent from 2,200 to 1,100 in the near future. Britain alone has promised not to reduce its presence, but its troops number only 100 or so.

Meanwhile, pressure built on Capitol Hill for an immediate redeployment, if not outright withdrawal, of the Marines. House Democratic leaders met to re-examine their support of a measure that allows the Marines to stay in Lebanon until April 1985, while three former CIA chiefs, Stansfield Turner, James Schlesinger and William Colby, urged that the men at least be moved from the Beirut airport. Said House Speaker Tip O'Neill, who firmly backed the Marines' extension last fall: "Patience is wearing very thin. There is no way we are going to be idle if the President doesn't do something within the next couple of weeks."

Just how bloody Lebanon can be was illustrated last week, when 16 Israeli Kfir jets swooped down and bombed a cluster of villages near Baalbek. Beirut radio reported that as many as 100 were killed and 300 wounded. Most of the casualties, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross, were civilians. Israeli military officials claimed to have destroyed two bases used by Iranian-supported Shi'ite guerrillas to launch attacks against Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.

If Goodman's release startled Washington, it did not surprise the supremely confident Jackson. Two weeks ago, .he learned through press reports that Rumsfeld had not even mentioned Goodman during talks in Damascus. Jackson blasted the Administration for not doing enough to free the airman, and within days the Syrians said he would be welcome in Damascus. He insisted he would not go if Reagan asked him not to, but four telephone calls to the President went unreturned.

Before talking with Assad, Jackson met with Syrian religious figures and members of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Though the Muslim and Christian leaders opposed Goodman's release, their American visitor made an impassioned plea for mercy. He then persuaded Mahmoud Labadi, a P.L.O. spokesman, to present Jackson's case for freeing Goodman to P.L.O. faction leaders in Damascus. It was they who subsequently urged the Syrians to give up the flyer.

On Monday, after a day's delay, Jackson met with Assad at a secluded villa north of Damascus. As TV cameras rolled, the Syrian President warmly embraced Jackson, whom he had met in 1979, when the civil rights leader toured the Middle East. For a man who was hospitalized with a heart ailment just two months ago, Assad looked remarkably hale. He talked with the group for about an hour, then conferred with Jackson alone for 20 minutes. Jackson argued that keeping Goodman would not stop U.S. reconnaissance flights over eastern Lebanon. To concentrate on those missions, said Jackson, was to focus on the mailman instead of the post office. But if Assad released the flyer, Jackson maintained, he would fuel demands within the U.S. for a Marine pullout and achieve his larger goal. Jackson then engaged in a bit of chicanery: he said that if he returned to the U.S. without Goodman, he would be "beat up on" by the "Zionists" in an upcoming debate. Jackson admitted to reporters later that there was no such debate scheduled.

Assad promised only to discuss the matter with his aides. Syrian officials had been debating the merits of releasing Goodman almost from the day he was shot down, and Jackson's plea tipped the balance. Jackson was given the good news the next day by Syrian Foreign Minister Abdel Halim Khaddam. Ambassador Robert Paganelli, who was not invited to Jackson's briefing, was informed moments later. Meanwhile, Goodman was driven from his Damascus military jail to the U.S. embassy. After putting on a tie and brown tweed jacket supplied by Jackson, he had a celebratory lunch at the Damascus-Sheraton and boarded an Air Force C-141 for the flight home. As the transport plane gained altitude, TIME Correspondent Jack White reported, a relieved Jackson paraded down the aisle exulting, "From Galilee to jubilee!"

Awakened at 5:30 a.m. with the news, a genuinely ebullient Reagan gave Jackson his full due. "If that guy could get him out and we couldn't, more power to him," he told aides. Good manners, in this case, also meant good politics: by being so generous with his praise, Reagan reinforced his nice-guy image and blunted any future attacks by Jackson about the Administration's handling of the Goodman case. Says a White House official: "We would have lost by scrimping."

Reagan's advisers admitted that Rumsfeld had never brought up Goodman with the Syrians, but only because Washington had not wanted the flyer to become a bargaining chip in negotiations on Lebanon. White House aides asserted that Reagan did not return Jackson's calls for fear of destroying the minister's credibility with the Syrians. If the President had talked to him, they said, Jackson might have carried the taint of an official emissary. During the Rose Garden ceremony, Jackson thanked Reagan for at least not impeding his mission.

Assad had much to gain by freeing Goodman. He came off as reasonable and conciliatory, an impression at odds with his dictatorial rule. He made it more difficult for the U.S. to flex its military muscle against Syria without appearing to be a warmonger. Most U.S. officials interpreted Assad's decision as a signal that Syria wants a rapprochement with the U.S., rather than more confrontation. White House aides insist that Syria has been impressed by American willingness to strike back, with both fighter-bombers and battleship guns, and point out that U.S. reconnaissance planes have not been shot at since mid-December.

Washington also is encouraged by the reception given Gemayel's security plan for the one-third of Lebanon not controlled by the Syrians or the Israelis. When the Lebanese President visited the U.S. in December, Administration officials bluntly told him to make peace with his opponents fast, or else wave goodbye to the Marines. "This time it sank in," says a senior U.S. diplomat. "Since then we have kept the blowtorch on."

The security plan, which is being worked out with the aid of Syrian and Saudi Arabian envoys, calls for the Lebanese Army to move south from Beirut to the Awali River, where the Israeli occupation zone begins, and north toward the port city of Tripoli, which the Syrians dominate. Lebanese police forces would patrol the hills above Beirut, the Chouf Mountains and the volatile southern suburbs. By moving equally into both Muslim and Christian strongholds, the government hopes to silence the guns of the warring militias.

One hitch is that Gemayel wants the Marines to act as a back-up for the Lebanese Army as it expands its area of control. "Are you kidding?" says a top State Department official, reflecting Washington's lack of enthusiasm for the idea. Agrees a White House aide: "One thing we won't do is appear to be marching alongside the Lebanese Army." The Syrians and Israelis apparently do not object to the plan, while two key Lebanese factions, the Christian Phalange and the Shi'ite Muslim group known as Amal, have tentatively pledged their support. But Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt, concerned about Lebanese soldiers entering his fief in the Chouf, said the arrangement was "not acceptable," which prompted another bout of last-minute dickering. If the agreement is implemented, the U.S. expects Gemayel to make good on his promises to share power. Notes a senior State Department official: "The security pact would clear the way for national reconciliation to go forward."

U.S. officials nonetheless caution against optimism. "There has been a lot of hype in calling this arrangement new and comprehensive," says a State Department staffer. "Everyone seems to want to do this, but this is the Middle East, remember."

Israeli cooperation is especially important. Plagued by continuing casualties and poor morale among its 28,000 troops in southern Lebanon, Jerusalem is contemplating pulling most of them out without a simultaneous Syrian withdrawal. A hasty exit could bring chaos. Israeli officials, however, insist they would coordinate their move with the Lebanese Army, which would enhance Gemayel's authority.

It is ironic that just as hopes for a settlement are rising slightly, support for the Administration's Middle East policies is eroding. Members of Congress began returning to Washington last week from the holiday recess, and their ears were ringing with constituents' complaints about the Marine presence in Beirut. Republican Charles Percy of Illinois, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voiced his disapproval, while Texas Republican John Tower, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, hastily flew to the Middle East to study the eployment. National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane met with House Republican leaders to try to quell their misgivings. He argued that the Marines were now adequately protected from attack. Not only are some 500 to 600 ferried from the airport to the ships every night, but those on shore now live in underground bunkers built of steel ship cargo containers.

McFarlane's pep talk temporarily soothed the Republicans, but unless substantial progress is made by Gemayel, White House aides expect Congress to begin an urgent review of U.S. policy in Lebanon as soon as it reconvenes on Jan. 23. Says Democratic Congressman G.V. ("Sonny") Montgomery of Mississippi, an influential hawk: "The way I read it, both sides--Democrats and Republicans--will give the President until the first of March to get something done." If Reagan cannot show results, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee might pass a resolution demanding a Marine pullout by April 1. To get around a possible veto, the lawmakers might push for a nonbinding sense-of-Congress resolution against the stationing of Marines in Beirut.

Either way, the prospect is unsettling for the White House. Even if Reagan successfully vetoed the congressional action, his victory would be Pyrrhic. Matters probably would not get that far: the Administration has decided not to expend much more political capital defending its policy. Although Reagan publicly appears to be dug in on his Lebanese policy, advisers privately say that he is actively looking for an exit, even if it means abandoning Gemayel. Promised a top adviser: "If Don Rumsfeld comes back and says there is no way Gemayel can put everything together, Reagan will say let's get out."

But if the security accord is approved, the President will have gained merely a little more time to study his options, not a full license to keep the Marines in Beirut through the election year. White House aides dismiss the possibility of a complete pullout right away, saying it would cause the Gemayel government to fall and lead to the permanent partitioning of Lebanon. At the same time, the aides are increasingly skeptical about the possibility of moving the troops away from the Beirut airport. To begin with, any redeployment would be discussed with Congress, which would only inflame the debate over whether the Marines should be in the country at all. By keeping the Marines at the airport, the Administration would have a polite way to turn down Gemayel's request that troops be stationed with the Lebanese Army as it pushes down the coastal highway. But even the most apolitical policymakers know that the days of the Marine contingent in Lebanon are numbered. "In a few months, if the trends seem positive, then that will be the time we can say O.K., now we can leave in good conscience," says a State Department official. If, on the other hand, another slash of violence bloodies the Marines, the men could be home in days. Jesse Jackson got one U.S. serviceman out last week. President Reagan has a much harder task: getting the other 1 ,800 out. -- James Kelly.

Reported by Douglas Brew/Washington and William Stewart/Beirut

With reporting by Douglas Brew/Washington and William Stewart/Beirut