Cashing In

Seaga wins in advance

Even some of Prime Minister Edward P.G. Seaga's closest associates were predicting that he would comfortably wait out the remaining two years of his term. After all, he enjoyed strong U.S. support, and his capitalist Jamaica Labor Party had 51 of the 60 seats in the country's Parliament. Nonetheless, Seaga last week became the first Caribbean leader to cash in on a wave of popular support for his nation's participation in the U.S.-led invasion of Grenada. After polls showed his popularity rising above 50% for the first time since he was elected, Seaga called a snap election for Dec. 15.

The decision brought an unusual response from Seaga's principal opposition, the socialist People's National Party (P.N.P.), led by former Prime Minister Michael N. Manley. Charging that Seaga had broken a promise not to hold new elections until voter rolls were updated and new registration procedures, including thumbprinting and photographs, were in place, Manley declared the first election boycott in Jamaica's 21 years of independence. The vote, he said, would amount to "a rape of democracy." By refusing to participate in the elections, the P.N.P. has ensured that Seaga will control almost all of the Parliament's seats, resulting in virtual one-party rule.

Seaga defeated Manley in 1980 partly because voters had become disenchanted with Manley's growing ties to Cuba and to Jamaica's extreme left. By emphasizing the role of his country's 175 troops in the Caribbean Peace Force, Seaga did his best to exploit lingering fears of the left. Said Carl Stone, Jamaica's leading political pollster: "People see that what happened to [Grenada's assassinated Prime Minister] Maurice Bishop could have happened to Manley: a popular leader encircled, controlled and then eliminated by the radical left."

Seaga may have disposed of his parliamentary opposition for the time being, but he has not solved Jamaica's economic ills. He promised a surge in exports and a flood of foreign investments as a result of free-market policies like lowered trade barriers, but neither has materialized. The U.S. is partly to blame. Key trade concessions contained in the Reagan Administration's Caribbean Basin Initiative have been held up for almost two years in Congress, while the U.S. recession reduced demand for Jamaican exports like bauxite, which is used to produce aluminum. From 12 million tons in 1980, Jamaica's bauxite exports fell to 7 million tons this year.

According to the U.S. embassy in Jamaica, Washington is currently pumping some $200 million annually into the economy. But instead of being funneled into long-term development projects, the money has fueled an inflationary buying binge in Jamaica's unstable economy. "Where we had been fighting over a chicken on market days, we are now importing video cassettes," says Jamaican Management Consultant Brian Young. Inflation has doubled in recent months, to more than 13%; unemployment stands at 26%.

Two days before he called elections, Seaga devalued the Jamaican dollar by 44%. He also admitted that the government had failed to impose the economic controls required to win an extension of International Monetary Fund loans totaling $680 million. Instead, Seaga hastily " arranged $180 million in lower-rated "standby credit."

Not surprisingly, Jamaica's restive poor have begun to wonder whether Seaga's version of capitalism is going to pay off. Says a U.S. official: "He really hasn't attacked the " basic social needs of the country." The next question is whether Seaga will take advantage of his parliamentary monopoly to undertake the necessary reforms. qed This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.