Heir to a Troublesome Legacy

By John Kohan.

As Begin's likely successor, Shamir faces formidable problems

The wall behind the stage in the Tel Aviv theater was decorated with huge Israeli flags, framing pictures of two Zionist heroes, Vladimir Jabotinsky and Theodor Herzl. Oddly, there was no photograph of Menachem Begin. Nor was the Prime Minister present as 950 members of the Herut Party gathered last week to elect his successor in a boisterous, eight-hour-long session. If the attention of an anxious nation had been riveted on Begin while he debated whether to resign, Israelis seemed determined, once that decision was made, to move into the new and uncertain post-Begin era without looking back.

Whenever the outgoing Prime Minister's name was mentioned from the speaker's podium, the noisy crowd of Herut loyalists erupted with cheers of "Begin, Begin." But as the long night of ballot counting passed, the name Shamir began to be heard more often. By 1:40 a.m., the decision was official. Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, 67, had defeated his only rival for the top party slot, Deputy Prime Minister David Levy, 45, by 436 votes to 302. The rapid sequence of events that had started with Begin's sudden announcement that he would resign seemed to have stunned Shamir. "I don't think he is hungry for the job," confided an aide. But the new leader of the Herut Party, the largest group in the Likud bloc, moved decisively to assure Israelis that the transition would be swift and smooth. Shamir said that one of his immediate goals would be "the consolidation and expansion of the political achievements already reached."

Shamir's first challenge will be to hold together the Likud coalition, a fragile alliance of seven factions. His political mettle will also be tested by a formidable list of domestic and foreign problems. Not only have the deaths of 517 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon over the past year failed to guarantee peace, but the price tag for the occupation of Lebanon comes to more than $1 million a day. This burden comes at a time when inflation is racing along at a triple-digit rate and foreign debt has reached $20.9 billion. Israel has also gone through a testy period in its relations with the U.S. because of last year's invasion of Lebanon and Israel's refusal to consider the Middle East peace plan proposed by President Reagan.

The first foreign reaction came from Bonn, where West German officials announced that Chancellor Helmut Kohl had postponed a visit to Israel. U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz was noticeably laconic in responding to the news of Begin's resignation. "I wish him well," said Shultz. "We'll deal with the new government when it appears." Enjoying the prerogatives of the elder statesman, former President Gerald Ford expressed the hope that Begin's successor would bring about "a bit more flexibility than has been exhibited by the Israeli government in the past." But even if Shamir's diplomatic experience makes him easier to deal with than the irascible Begin, U.S. officials do not expect him to be more flexible than his predecessors on the main area of dispute with the U.S.: the continued occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the home of some 1.2 million Palestinian Arabs. Shamir, said a Western diplomat, is "essentially more of the same without the authority or charisma."

Israelis were stunned when Begin, 70, suddenly announced at a Cabinet meeting early last week that he intended to resign. The Prime Minister, who has suffered two heart attacks, one stroke and a broken hip, has been in poor health for some time. In the past year, moreover, Begin has received a series of damaging jolts to his morale, each compounding the others. Last November, as he was about to deliver a speech in Los Angeles, he heard the news that his wife of 43 years, Aliza, had died after a long illness. Three months later, an independent Israeli commission looking into the massacre of more than 700 Arabs in Beirut refugee camps last September concluded that he shared a "certain degree of responsibility." Then came the death of his friend and confidant Deputy Prime Minister Simcha Ehrlich. Meanwhile, as the situation in Lebanon deteriorated, Begin became deeply concerned that history would not look favorably on his tenure.

As a result, Begin became increasingly morose and withdrawn. He avoided speeches, and those he gave were uncharacteristically short. Some of his Cabinet colleagues complained that the government was being allowed to drift without decisive leadership. Begin had become gaunt, almost skeletal; his eyes had a haunted look. Tired, sad and dispirited, Begin had, as an aide put it, "lost the fire." In July, he unexpectedly canceled a visit to Washington, citing "personal reasons."

Before delivering the formal letter of resignation to President Chaim Herzog, Begin promised to meet with representatives from his Likud coalition. Despite the assurances of a Begin aide that the Prime Minister was not being "Machiavellian," the slight delay seemed to signal that Begin would still be open to friendly persuasion. During the Monday-morning gathering in the Prime Minister's offices, one coalition leader after another pleaded with Begin to stay on, arguing that his departure might bring Labor Leader Shimon Peres to power and weaken the Israeli position in Lebanon and the West Bank. Begin sat through the meeting in stone-faced silence and told his political allies that he would let them know his final decision within a day.

As the uncertainty lingered, several hundred Begin loyalists kept a noisy vigil in front of the Prime S Minister's Jerusalem residence. "Begin, King of Israel," they chanted. "Don't go to the President." A contingent of veterans from the Irgun, an underground group led by Begin that fought against the British in the 1940s, carried a sign reading FOR 40 YEARS WE TOOK ORDERS FROM YOU. NOW WE ARE GIVING YOU AN ORDER: STAY! Other Israelis held a placard with a more somber message: YOU SENT THE SOLDIERS TO LEBANON. YOU CAN'T LEAVE UNTIL THEY'RE HOME.

Begin kept the nation in suspense Tuesday morning while he discussed the redeployment of Israeli forces in Lebanon with U.S. Special Envoy Robert McFarlane. As soon as the American emissary had left, Begin invited the Likud leaders to his office. He had already drafted the text of his letter to the President, he said, and sent it to be typed. But he listened patiently as his colleagues once again insisted that it was his duty to oversee the successful completion of his policy initiatives. "I cannot carry on," Begin finally said wearily. "If I thought I could continue, I would do so. I did not reach my decision on the spur of the moment."

As Begin reached for a pen with which to sign the typed version of his resignation, Minister of Economic Coordination Ya'acov Meridor made a final plea. "With all due respect, I reject your line of thinking, and I feel you must carry on," Meridor said. Begin paused for a moment and replied, "I can do this even without your agreement." He then signed the document. "You almost convinced me, and I was tempted," Begin said. "But what kind of example would this be? The entire nation and the world would have had to deal with one question: Would he resign or not?"

If that issue was now settled, Begin and his allies still had to ensure that power would be transferred to a new government dominated by the Likud. Under Israeli law, the President must ask a member of the Knesset, traditionally from the biggest parliamentary bloc, to form a new government. With 64 votes, three more than the necessary majority, the Likud coalition would be the most likely group to be given the go-ahead. But Likud leaders feared that without Begin to cajole its fractious factions into line, the alliance would fall apart, opening the way for Labor, which controls 50 seats, to be offered the chance to form a government.

The complicated transition of power could not start until the President had received the Prime Minister's formal notification. Taking advantage of that technicality, Finance Minister Yoram Aridor urged Begin to give the coalition a chance to designate a successor before he went to visit Herzog, "in order not to give the government to the Labor Party on a silver platter." Begin quickly agreed.

Almost immediately, the race was on for Begin's job as leader of the Herut Party, the largest faction within the Likud bloc. As eight Herut Cabinet members gathered to discuss the succession, Shamir was the clear front runner. But Levy, a Morocco-born trade union leader, shattered hopes of an early agreement. "There will be more than one candidate," he told his colleagues. Levy had rejected an offer from Shamir to become his Foreign Minister. Levy pressed the group to put the succession to the party's central committee, where, Levy thought, he enjoyed more support.

In an effort to check Levy's challenge, Shamir warned his fellow Herut Cabinet members of the dangers that might result from a contentious floor fight at a party meeting. "Time is working against us," he argued. "Labor is standing in ambush in the corner." Former Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, who was forced to resign last February after the independent commission found that he had "made a grave mistake when he ignored the danger of acts of revenge and bloodshed" in the Beirut refugee camps, hinted that if the central committee took up the matter there might be many candidates, "including me." Levy, who had on several occasions last year opposed Sharon's handling of the invasion of Lebanon, turned to him and said, "Please, Arik, compete! It will only bring honor to the movement if there is a competition."

Faced with a standoff, the Herut caucus finally asked Meridor to have a confidential chat with Begin. Since the Prime Minister was thought to favor the more experienced Shamir over his young and relatively dovish rival, any word from Begin would have broken the deadlock. But the Prime Minister told Meridor that "in the matter of choosing a successor, I do not want to interfere." Sharon then declared his support for Shamir. One reason: he may have been offered an important post in a Shamir government, possibly as chairman of the Ministerial Committee for Settlement Programs.

During the crucial countdown to the central committee balloting, Shamir and Levy supporters actively solicited votes by telephone. When the two candidates finally appeared at the Tel Aviv theater Thursday evening, they warmly embraced each other and held up clasped hands, like two middleweights preparing to do battle. Levy insisted that he was less interested in victory than in a "good contest." But Shamir candidly admitted that he was not certain "everybody who says he will vote for me is telling the truth." The rousing welcome that the delegates gave Sharon as he triumphantly entered the auditorium suggested that the former Defense Minister, whatever his political liabilities, might have given both candidates a run for their money if he had not withdrawn from the race.

If the outcome of the election had seemed to be in doubt, it was clear once the plain white paper ballots were counted that the Herut had decisively opted for the older and politically seasoned Shamir. As soon as the results were announced, Meridor rushed off to telephone Begin.

Having carried the day within the Herut, Shamir still had to convince the President that he could command a majority of the 120-member parliament. For this he needed to present a list of at least 61 parliamentary supporters. At first, representatives of the smaller parties that had supported Begin refused to commit themselves. The TAMI Party, which represents North African Jews, threatened to break ranks over budget cuts that, its members claim, have taken too much from the poor. Six other deputies demanded a "national unity" government that would include ministers drawn from the Labor Party.

Barely twelve hours after his nomination, Shamir summoned the leaders of the present coalition. They quickly gave him their endorsement. Communications Minister Mordechai Zippori jubilantly announced that the coalition had "accomplished 99% and all that remains is small details." But Shamir was cautious and suggested that the jockeying for influence was far from over. Said he: "I hope that in another two or three days we will conclude negotiations and be able to bring a new government to the Knesset."

At week's end Begin still had not made his expected trip to the President's office. But once he does, the way may be clear for Shamir to try to form a government. According to Israeli law he has three weeks. If he needs more time he can ask for two extensions.

If, by then, Shamir still cannot patch together a convincing parliamentary majority, Herzog may turn to Labor, the largest party in the Knesset. Labor Leader Peres, 60, had begun to woo members of the small parties as soon as he heard the news of Begin's resignation. But the opposition has suffered from the long-festering feud between Peres and former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Besides, given Shamir's rapid move to consolidate power, it seemed unlikely that Labor would be given the chance to return to power without elections, which are now scheduled for 1985.

During his years in power, Begin so thoroughly dominated Israeli life by the sheer force of his personality that his sudden exit from politics was sure to usher in a period of instability. Shamir will not find it easy to fill the void left by the indomitable Begin, who could make peace with Egypt and wage war in Lebanon. But Begin's successor will probably be a transitional leader, as unlikely to respond to bold initiatives as to launch them. That will make it all the more difficult for him to sort out Begin's troubled, and troublesome, legacy. --By John Kohan. Reportedby Harry Kelly and Robert Slater/Jerusalem

With reporting by Harry Kelly, Robert Slater This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.