Begin Drops a Bombshell

By James D. Atwater.

He says he will resign, and the nation faces turmoil

For months there had been rumors that the 70-year-old man was tired of the burdens of leadership, that he was weary of having to deal with his nation's intransigent problems and irritated by the chore of keeping his fractious Cabinet in line, and, most of all, that he had been devastated and disheartened by the death of his wife Aliza last November. Even so, when the news was announced on Sunday, the nation was stunned: Menachem Begin declared his intention to resign as Prime Minister. As the day went on, members of the Cabinet of the redoubtable leader were trying to talk him out of quitting and creating a major political crisis in his country. Said Justice Minister Moshe Nissim: "We have to persuade him to stay. Labor has no chance to form a Cabinet. His resignation would only throw this country into total chaos." Going into Sunday's Cabinet session, Begin told an aide, "This is not going to be a regular one." For weeks the Prime Minister had been frustrated by a growing series of problems. The economy was sagging as inflation soared to a rate projected to be 160% at year's end.

Begin was also under attack for agreeing to the visit this week of West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl during the 44th anniversary of Hitler's invasion of Poland. But the main difficulty remained the lack of a settlement in Lebanon. As the standoff dragged on, Israeli casualties mounted. During the televised funerals of soldiers that frequently appeared on evening newscasts, mourners often blamed Begin for the deaths (the latest casualty figures: 517 dead, over 3,000 wounded). In July, with the situation so unsettled, Begin wavered and hesitated and then finally called off a to Washington. was clearly a mood on Sunday when the Cabinet session began. But the final incident that may well have persuaded him to speak out was caused by former Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, now serving in the Cabinet as Minister Without Portfolio. The architect of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Sharon exploded while the Cabinet was discussing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Lebanese Chouf Mountains.

Sharon was incensed that Begin had decided, at Washington's request, to post pone the scheduled withdrawal date. He shouted at Begin, "You surrendered to the Americans! You gave in! Prime Minister Begin and the Minister of De fense just capitulated." Then he stalked out and slammed the door.

Leaving the Cabinet meeting, the Prime Minister ignored reporters as, surrounded by aides and bodyguards, he made his way to his limousine for the ride home. Begin's supporters fervently hoped that the Prime Minister could be persuaded to stay on and even speculated that his announcement was only another in a long string of political ploys that he has used in the past to strengthen his position. By demonstrating how important he was to Israel's political stability, the optimistic theory went, Begin was really trying to rally backing. There was even speculation that Begin hoped that no one would be able to form a Cabinet, and that in the resulting elections the Likud, even without him at the helm, would be strengthened.

'At the urging of his Cabinet members, Begin agreed to meet on Monday morning with Likud leaders to discuss the political situation and his next step. If he resolved to carry out his announcement, Begin would then go to President Chaim Herzog and formally submit his resignation. His entire Cabinet would automatically resign with him. Herzog would then consult with the nation's political leaders before deciding on whom to ask to form the next government. Because Begin's Likud coalition holds a margin of 64 to 56 in the Knesset, tradition dictates that Herzog would have to ask someone in the majority group to create a Cabinet. There are at least two potential leaders in Begin's party who are likely to carry on present policies, at least in broad outline, if either were to come to power.

The leading eligible candidate in the present Cabinet is Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, a close ally of Begin's. But Shamir ranks in stature behind another Cabinet member who is not eligible for the job because he is not a member of the Knesset: Defense Minister Moshe Arens. If Begin's resignation caused a political deadlock that resulted in new elections, and Arens were to win a seat, he would stand a strong chance of emerging as leader, providing the Likud did well at the polls.

Arens was appointed to replace Sharon in February after the tough former general's image was besmirched by the intensive of Beirut and the Chris tian Phalangist massacre of some 700 to 800 Palestinians and other Arabs in refugee camps outside the city. The new minister moved quickly to establish a new atmo sphere in the defense Establishment, and his quiet approach contrasted sharply with the shrill, impulsive outbursts of his predecessor. Still, Arens is as fully committed as Sharon and Begin to Israel's role in Lebanon and to retaining control over the West Bank. The other leading candidates for the top job are David Levy, the Deputy Prime Minister, Yoram Aridor, the Finance Minister and, even though the chance is remote, the fiery Sharon. The last choice, should it come to pass, would surely provoke immense controversy both in Israel and abroad.

If the government resigns, the opposition Labor Party will undoubtedly try to entice some of the more disgruntled elements of the Likud into a new coalition with enough votes to take power.

But while the Likud has two strong heirs to Begin, Labor has leadership problems. Shimon Peres, the leader since 1977, has feuded with former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, and the split between the two men would likely ham per the party.

Begin's resignation announcement caught the White House by total surprise. "It's an internal matter, and we are withholding comment until we see what happens," said a spokesman. How ver, the Administration has long viewed the Begin government as a major obstacle blocking implementation of Reagan's comprehensive peace plan for the Middle East. But the White House realized that Begin's successor might well carry out the same policies. Like the Israeli nation, the Administration waited anxiously as the week began to learn the resolution of the political crisis. -- By James D. Atwater. Reported by David Halevy and Robert Slater /Jerusalem

With reporting by David Halevy, Robert Slater/Jerusalem This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.