Craxi Makes His Move

By Frederick Painton

For the first time ever, a Socialist prepares to assume power

In some ways, Socialist Leader Bettino Craxi, 49, was already beginning to look like the Prime Minister he has yearned so long to become. Gone were the open-necked shirts, safari jackets and jeans he had taken to wearing in Parliament in an attempt to project a populist image. Last week he was wearing dark, tailored suits as he held court with fellow politicians, labor leaders and business executives at a long oval table in the Chamber of Deputies' ornate Sala di Governo. With a mandate from President Sandro Pertini to form Italy's 44th postwar government, Craxi was trying to cobble together a five-party center-left coalition. Joining the Socialists would be the Republicans, Social Democrats, Liberals and, most notably, the Christian Democrats, traditional masters of the Italian political scene, who had tacitly agreed to step aside and let an outsider try his turn. If Craxi succeeds, as many expected he would, he will be the first Italian Socialist Prime Minister ever.

To skeptics, including the Communists and some Christian Democrats, a Socialist-led government promised to be little more than a passing novelty. They saw no reason to believe that Craxi, for all his reformist zeal, could be more successful than his dozens of predecessors who fell victims to Parliament's inexhaustible talent for fomenting political instability. There were optimistic politicians, though, who saw grounds for hope in the electorate's demonstrated distaste in the June elections for the major parties' malgoverno (bad government). In their view, Craxi has an opportunity to bring a durable change to the pattern of Italian politics. Said Republican Party Whip Adolfo Battaglia: "With Craxi and a brand-new legislature there's a chance for a serious long-term political renewal."

It was the ambitious Craxi who provoked early elections by withdrawing from the four-party governing coalition headed by Christian Democrat Amintore Fanfani. Craxi had hoped that his Socialists would make significant gains at the polls. But they merely inched up, from 9.8% to 11.4%, far short of expectations. In the process, however, the election set off what Italian newspapers called a political "earthquake." The Christian Democrats suffered an unprecedented loss of more than 5%, dropping from 38% to 33% of the popular vote. What shook the political establishment even more was a wave of protest votes, estimated at 18% to 20% of the electorate, squandered on splinter parties or simply thrown away in blank or spoiled ballots. Such gestures of contempt for the major parties were taken as a public warning against politics-as-usual while the nation's worsening economic ills went unattended.

Mindful of the voters' message, Craxi is intent on introducing innovation and some basic changes. He has proposed to name two Vice Premiers, one probably a Christian Democrat, the other a Republican, possibly the popular Giovanni Spadolini, who presided over a five-party center-left coalition last year as the only previous non-Christian Democratic Prime Minister. For Craxi such a collegial arrangement would have a special advantage: two other parties would get to share the onus of an inevitable economic austerity program. The Socialist leader has also suggested the establishment of an efficient super-Cabinet, its membership restricted to Vice Premiers and key ministers.

To make Parliament more governable, Craxi would like to reduce the number of Italy's two dozen splinter parties. To do so, he supports an institutional reform movement that among other things may try to imitate West Germany's requirement that parties attract a minimum of 5% of the vote to be eligible for seats. He may also propose the abolition of the secret ballot in Parliament, which has allowed deputies to block government measures in response to pressure from special-interest groups. If Craxi can push through some of these measures, his government could be the first to prove itself strong enough to administer the bitter economic medicine that the nation has needed for so long.

Inflation continues at 16%, vs. 9% in France, 3% in West Germany and the U.S. Fueling the steady price rises is a mountainous budget deficit approaching 17% of the gross national product (vs. 5% in the U.S., 8.7% in West Germany). Successive governments have continued to bankroll a noncompetitive state-owned industrial complex and an inefficient welfare system.

Craxi has found general agreement on the need to curb inflation and trim the deficit. The trouble is that the five parties disagree on how to reach these goals. Some Socialists favor a six-month wage and price freeze similar to the one imposed by President Franc,ois Mitterrand's Socialist government in France. The Christian Democrats and Liberals prefer draconian slashes in public spending similar to those imposed by Britain's Margaret Thatcher.

In hammering out a foreign policy, Craxi's most immediate problem comes from his own party's left wing. Craxi supports NATO'S plan to install 112 U.S. cruise missiles near Comiso, Sicily, at the end of this year if the Geneva arms negotiations produce no U.S.-Soviet agreement on intermediate-range missiles in Europe. Although his prospective coalition partners agree with that view, the Socialist left wing and the Communists oppose the deployment.

In fact, among the Christian Democrats who so readily agreed to Craxi's nomination are some who would like to make him a target for the anger that is sure to boil up over the missile issue and economic austerity. If Craxi fails, they calculate, the prime ministership will return to the Christian Democrats, or there will be new elections, this time without Craxi to worry about. In view of such risks, Craxi was asked recently why he was so eager to lead an Italian government. He answered by recalling Napoleon's observation that "every soldier has a marshal's baton in his knapsack." Craxi has the baton now, but he still lacks a powerful army.

--By Frederick Painton.

Reported by Jordan Bonfante and Walter Galling/Rome

With reporting by Jordan Bonfante, Walter Galling This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.