A Marriage of Convenience

Six months ago, the Soviet Union was no more than an irrelevant bystander in the Middle East poker game. But since then, Moscow has anted up with a vengeance by resupplying Syria with large quantities of highly sophisticated weapons. The Soviet aim has been not merely to replace equipment lost when Syria tried to blunt Israel's invasion of Lebanon last June, but to increase Soviet influence in the region by offering the regime of Syrian President Hafez Assad more and better materiel than he had before. Moscow, moreover, has added a new dimension to its involvement in Syria by installing SA-5 missile bases that have to be manned by Soviet troops and technicians. Says a West European diplomat in Damascus: "For the first time, the Soviets have bases in Syria. This is a categorical and qualitative change in the nature of Soviet involvement."

Located near the towns of Dumeir and Shimshar, the sites consist of two batteries of 12 launchers each. Spare missiles bring the total number of SA-5s to about 50. The complex early warning and tracking radars, plus the communications systems and defenses made up of less advanced batteries, are all manned and operated by Soviets. Even though the SA-5s are integrated into a Syrian-controlled air-defense network, the Kremlin has a veto over their use. So tight is Soviet control, in fact, that the Syrian Defense Minister has never been allowed to enter the bases.

The Soviets have been equally generous in providing more conventional arms to the Syrians. Since the Lebanese conflict began, the Soviets have supplied Syria with about 100 fighter aircraft to replace those lost in dogfights over the Bekaa Valley. The bulk of the new aircraft are advanced MiG-23s. Some 300 to 400 T-62 and T-72 tanks have been added to the Syrian arsenal, well in excess of the number of older and smaller T-54s and T-55s lost in Lebanon. The Soviets have also provided about 200 armored personnel carriers, and between 600 and 800 trucks and other wheeled vehicles, considerably improving the mobility of Syrian forces.

The basis for Soviet military assistance to Syria is a treaty of "friendship and cooperation" that was signed by Assad and former Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev in Moscow in 1980. The pact was drawn up at a time when Syria's increasing isolation from other Arab countries was causing Assad to rethink a foreign policy that has been described as "acrobatic nonalignment." But even while courting Moscow's increased attentions, Assad has never been more than a reluctant Soviet suitor. For two years after the treaty's signing, Assad mysteriously failed to reappoint a Syrian Ambassador to Moscow. Following Israel's crushing victories last summer, however, Assad's room for maneuver shrank. Two months ago, Syrian Ambassador Muhammad Ah' Halabi presented his credentials in Moscow. Despite the dramatic increase in Soviet military aid to Syria, foreign analysts are leery of attaching too much importance to the relationship. Says a Western diplomat in Damascus: "Right now this is a very happy marriage of convenience."

The price of the convergence to the Syrians is not precisely known, but according to U.S. intelligence experts, the bill may run as high as $2 billion. Among other things, Western diplomats believe that Syria, in order to pay for its new arms, has been obliged to increase its economic involvement with the Soviet bloc. Against the advice of many of its own experts, for example, the Syrian national airline recently decided to buy Soviet-made Tupolev airliners. A Syrian contract with the French to build an experimental nuclear reactor has been handed to the Soviets. Similarly, a $200 million Syrian deal with a Western consortium to build a major electrical generating plant was transferred to Moscow. Most diplomats feel that if given a choice, Assad would rather keep his business dealings in the West. The problem is that for the time being only Moscow is willing to sell Syria the military hardware that it craves. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.