Soares Returns

A triumph without laughter

In other circumstances, Mario Scares might have savored his victory. He and his Socialist Party had just been returned to power after five years in the wilderness. Their electoral success came nine years to the day after the overthrow of a dictatorship that Scares had opposed for most of his adult life. But in Portugal, winning elections is no cause for rejoicing. The Socialist Party, Scares glumly declared, "holds the hopes of millions of Portuguese without feeling triumphant."

Triumphant, no. Beleaguered, almost certainly. Scares and the Socialists have inherited an economy in crisis ($13 billion in foreign debt, 20% inflation, bankrupt state industries, unemployment as high as 15%) and a political system on the verge of collapse. Scares' new government--if he can form one--will be Portugal's 15th since the 1974 revolution. Despite major gains in the cities, the Socialists captured just over 36% of last week's vote, giving them perhaps 101 seats in the 250-member parliament. Scares has ruled out a minority government, and he refuses to cooperate with Portugal's hard-lining Communist Party, which polled 18% of the vote. His only possible allies were his old enemies, the outgoing Social Democrats, who in spite of their name are a conservative party.

The merger could take weeks to arrange. The Social Democrats, who won 27% of the vote, can be expected to push for a considerable share of ministerial power. But they are deeply divided over a number of issues, including alliance with the Socialists. Scares, for his part, would probably like to strike a deal with the Social Democrats. He needs the 75 votes that the Social Democrats are expected to command in the next parliament, and he wants to spread political responsibility for salvaging the economy. Said he: "We must declare a political and social truce that will permit the country to overcome the crisis. It is not a task for one group or party."

Both parties favor strong ties with the U.S., continued Portuguese membership in NATO and measures to strengthen free enterprise. Scares, however, has often been at ideological loggerheads with the Social Democrats, especially on the issue of state ownership of industry. "The Portuguese people must understand that democracy is not made in haste," Scares warned last week, admitting the possibility of long negotiations.

In a fit of political pique, defeated Prime Minister Francisco Pinto Balsem`ao threatened to resign his caretaker post if Scares has not formed a government in 30 days. Moreover, even if a new coalition is patched together, no one would place bets on its longevity. Yet the stakes this time are high. As Scares put it last week, "The Socialist Party cannot fail in its mandate. That would endanger the very regime." Translation: if the Socialists and Social Democrats do not come to terms, there is nothing left to try. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.