A Vigorous but Fragile Democracy

By Marguerite Johnson

As elections approach, economic woes pose a special challenge

Get two Nigerians together and they will form three political parties: the first two so that they can both be leaders and the third as a vehicle for trying to resolve their differences. Nigerians enjoy telling that story about their penchant for politics. On a continent where military dictatorships and one-party governments are the rule, it is a refreshing reminder that black Africa's wealthiest and most populous (90 million) nation opted for a return to democracy four years ago.

The vigor of the country's political system is apparent in the enthusiasm with which six parties have already embarked on a campaign for national elections in August. Nigeria's infant democracy, however, faces a major test as President Shehu Shagari tries to renew his mandate at a time when the country struggles with a deepening economic crisis prompted by the decline in oil revenues. The seriousness of the situation became evident in January when the government expelled more than a million foreign workers, mostly Ghanaians, in order to ease growing unemployment among Nigerians.

Shagari believes that he and his National Party of Nigeria will improve on the narrow victory they won in 1979, when the country returned to civilian government after 13 years of military rule. "I feel much more confident than in the previous election," Shagari told TIME in a rare interview. "Now we are going to project ourselves not just from our intentions but from our past actions and performance."

Shagari's leadership is widely acknowledged to have been an effective balm for the country after a turbulent decade in which Nigeria was racked by three military coups and a bloody civil war. He has promoted a spirit of unity by evenhandedly distributing federal funds to the country's 19 states, regardless of which party is in local control. In an effort to make Nigeria self-sufficient in food, Shagari launched a "green revolution," an ambitious rural development program. He has also made education a top priority; hundreds of new schools have been built since he came to office.

A scholarly, soft-spoken Muslim given to wearing the beaded cap and flowing white robes traditional to northern Nigeria, Shagari, 57, looks more like a poet than a veteran of the rough-and-tumble of politics. In fact, he is both, although he confesses that he has had little time for verse since becoming President. Active in politics even before Nigeria became independent from Britain in 1960, he was one of the architects of Nigeria's new constitution, which was modeled after that of the U.S. and went into effect in 1979.

The transition from military to civilian rule came at a time when oil sales were booming and government coffers swollen. Says a Western diplomat in Lagos: "There was plenty of money to go around and everyone was happy. Democracy and wealth seemed to go hand in hand." Now there is concern that hard times could revive regionalism among the country's three main tribal groups, the Muslim Hausa-Fulani in the north and the predominantly Christian Yoruba in the west and Ibo in the southeast. Shagari believes that the safeguards built into the constitution in order to make political parties national rather than regional will prevent the country from drifting apart again. "Our constitution was designed deliberately to prevent that kind of situation," he says. "It is now the resolve of every party to ensure that it spreads its influence all over the country."

Nigeria's economic woes stem from its dependence on oil revenues. In 1980 the government had currency reserves of $10 billion, and its long-term development projections were based on an OPEC quota of 2.3 million bbl. per day. But by March of this year, reserves were down to $1 billion, and oil production had dropped to 400,000 bbl. per day. Sharply curtailed imports have caused food prices to rise 25% over the past year. There are shortages of raw materials and parts for industry, and many factories have had to cut back production or lay off workers. Construction has been delayed on a number of projects, including a new capital at Abuja in the cool savanna 300 miles northeast of steamy Lagos.

Shagari's opponents charge that he waited too long before initiating austerity measures. There is also growing public anger over corruption, which is rife in both the government and private sector. Shagari personally is considered above reproach, but even some of his supporters chide him for allowing those around him to amass enormous wealth. The President has also been criticized for permitting Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, the Ibo colonel who led the fight for the secession of Biafra in 1967-70, to return from exile in the Ivory Coast and re-enter politics. Shagari had urged Ojukwu not to enter politics immediately, but Ojukwu promptly joined the President's National Party. While he stands to be an influential vote getter in the Ibo states, his action has embarrassed Shagari.

Nigerians will also vote for state governors and members of the Senate, House of Representatives and state assemblies, but most of the attention is being focused on the race for the presidency. Thus far the opposition, divided among five parties, has been unable to mount a cohesive campaign against Shagari. His main opponents are two old war horses of Nigerian politics: Chief Obafemi Awolowo, 74, a Yoruba and leader of the Unity Party of Nigeria, and Nnamdi Azikiwe, 78, an Ibo and head of the Nigerian People's Party. Nigerian politics depends more on personalities than on issues, and the parties differ little in their programs.

Divided as it is, the opposition could still cut into Shagari's support enough to deny him an outright victory. Nigeria's constitution requires that a presidential candidate must win both a plurality of the popular vote and 25% of the ballots in two-thirds of the states. The law was designed to ensure that presidential candidates would seek support nationwide and come to office with broad backing. If Shagari or any other candidate fails to meet that requirement, the political horse trading could go on for months--at great peril to the country's hard-won stability.

--By Marguerite Johnson. Reported by John Borrell/Lagos

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