He Is Down Despite the Ups

By Ed Magnuson

A TIME poll finds rays of hope, but not for Reagan

Americans are starting to feel better about their own economic future and that of the nation too. So, by any logic, they are also looking more favorably on the performance of President Ronald Reagan, right? Wrong. The signs of an imminent economic recovery have had no effect at all on Reagan's general popularity. In fact, he is losing points with the public even as the economy improves. This is one of the surprising findings of the latest national opinion survey conducted for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc.*

Fully 50% of those polled expect their standard of living to improve materially in the next year or two, an increase of 5 percentage points since the most recent survey last December. In the same period, the percentage of Americans who think that "things are going fairly well or very well in the country" has jumped from 35% to 45%. Similarly, while 62% last December felt that "the country is in deep and serious trouble," that majority has shrunk a bit, to 58%. The state of the nation is rated good by only one-third of Americans, but that nevertheless is a step up from the 27% who felt that way in December. More specifically, 49% believe that "our economy has started to improve."

But these glimmers of a new sense of well-being have failed to polish the President's image. Only 46% of the nation's voters now consider Reagan a "leader you can trust." That is a decline from 57% in May of 1981, the highest rating in his presidency, and marks the lowest point he has reached. The percentage of people who have "doubts and reservations" about Reagan's leadership has increased from 49% in December to 52%. When voters are asked whether they have "a lot of confidence" in Reagan's ability to provide "real leadership," only 27% now respond affirmatively. There is a gender difference in this rating; while a third of all men have "a lot of confidence" in the President's leadership, only 22% of women do. Reagan has also declined in a broader measure of how Americans gauge his overall performance. When asked to judge him on a scale of 1 (poor) to 10 (excellent), only 45% of the voters place him in the upper half (6 to 10) of that scale. In December he enjoyed a majority of favorable appraisals.

The poll uncovered a number of clues behind the worries about Reagan. A formidable 70% of all registered voters with an opinion now believe that the President "represents the rich rather than the average American." That is a rise of 7 percentage points since December.

Some specific issues seem to be eroding Reagan's support. Fully 78% of the public consider a balanced federal budget "important or more important than anything else" in achieving a healthy economy. That sentiment coincides, unhappily for the Administration, with the reality of record-breaking deficits. According to the poll, Reagan runs jarringly out of step with public opinion on his defense budget. At a time when he is fighting to sustain increases in military spending, 62% of the voters say that substantial cuts can be made "without jeopardizing national security."

These critical attitudes are reflected in a number of political impressions of concern to the Republican Party. Only 37% of all voters hope that the President will seek another term--a low level identical to a sampling taken one year ago. A majority (51%) hope that he will not run again (12% are undecided). Even among Republicans and independents, only 39% want Reagan to run.

One of the least cheerful findings for Republicans was that if Reagan were to seek reelection, he would lose, based on current voter sentiment, by 54% to 27% to any "acceptable" Democrat. What a voter finds acceptable, of course, varies widely, and an unidentified candidate with such a safely neutral label is more attractive in theory than any specific Democrat likely to get the nomination.

With the President still seeking renomination, Vice President George Bush and Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker are tied at 15% each among Republicans and independents. This represents a gain of 7 percentage points by Bush since December. If Reagan withdraws from consideration, Bush would seem to gain slightly. He is preferred over Baker in such a situation, 25% to 22%. Still, that represents a surge by Baker since December, when he trailed Bush, 30% to 18%, as the preferred nominee without Reagan running.

Among Democrats, former Vice President Walter Mondale is seen as a shade stronger now than in December. His lead of 33% to 20% over Senator John Glenn, the former astronaut, has stretched to a margin of 38% to 21%. Announced Candidates Gary Hart and Alan Cranston, both Senators, trail distantly at 4% each.

In all of the latest Yankelovich findings, there may be a bit of consolation for the President. The presidential script is still unfolding, and sudden twists in plot are every bit as commonplace in Washington as they are in

Hollywood.

--By Ed Magnuson

* The survey polled 1,008 registered voters by telephone on March 1 to 3. The sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When compared with the results of previous TIME-Yankelovich polls, the potential sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.