"The Last Blow"

Iran's latest offensive founders

The drive had the Koranic code name Walfajr, for "I swear by the dawn." But Iranian leaders were also calling it "the last blow to Baghdad," and noting that it was timed to mark the fourth anniversary of the Iranian revolution led by Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini. Declared Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Hojjatoleslam Hashemi Rafsanjani: "The people expect this offensive to be the final military operation that will determine the destiny of the region."

Last Monday evening thousands of Islamic Guards and volunteer troops, backed by several regular army divisions, swept across a flat plain toward Iraqi positions near the border of Iran's oil-rich Khuzistan province. It was the beginning of yet another major effort to drive enemy forces from Iranian soil, seize Iraqi territory in return, and ultimately bring down the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Although the offensive apparently failed to score any immediate breakthrough, it was clear that another grim and bloody chapter in the 2 1/2-year-old Persian Gulf war was in the making.

As usual, there was no way to confirm the exaggerated claims made by either side, since no foreign journalists were allowed at the front. But U.S. Intelligence officials said each side probably had about 100,000 troops poised for battle, and casualties were believed to be heavy. Throughout the week, the Iranians repeatedly launched "human wave" assaults in the face of heavy Iraqi resistance, only to fall back and press forward again. Residents of the Iranian city of Ahwaz, 100 miles from the fighting, reported that the local morgue, which can handle 2,000 bodies, was filled to capacity with war dead.

The Iranian offensive, the fourth launched by Tehran since last July, was apparently aimed at the Iraqi city of Al Amarah. Seizure of the town would enable Iran to intercept supply and troop movements between Baghdad, the capital, and the southern port city of Basra. By midweek, Tehran Radio was claiming that advancing forces had "liberated" 120 sq. mi. of Iranian territory from Iraqi forces since the attack began. An Iraqi military spokesman was contending that the attackers did not gain "one inch of Iraqi territory."

Iraq was clearly on the defensive, though, and appealed last week to United Nations Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar for help in arranging a truce. Having provoked the fighting in September 1980 to regain what he claimed was lost territory, Saddam Hussein now wants out of the war on almost any terms that could be described as honorable. Iran so far has rejected all offers. Even before the present worldwide oil glut, Iraq's petroleum production was down from a peak of about 4 million bbl. per day to about 1 million bbl. per day. Iraqi oil facilities in the south are in ruins, and the country's economy is being sustained by a monthly subsidy of $1 billion provided by Saudi Arabia and the smaller gulf states.

Although Iran made significant gains on the battlefield last spring and drove the Iraqis from much of their captured territory, Tehran does not seem able to win the war either. The Iranians are fighting with a hodgepodge of equipment bought from many nations and are suffering from a lack of spare parts. Deep divisions are said to exist between the regular military and the poorly trained but highly indoctrinated Islamic Guards. Troop morale is waning, and some expatriates say absenteeism and desertions are rife. Said a U.S. analyst in Saudi Arabia last week: "The gulf war has become a terrible replay of World War I, in which each side launches a terrible offense only to be beaten back by an even more formidable defense. The result: stalemate."

The Tehran government has managed to exploit the war as a unifying factor at a time when the country is riven with inner turmoil. In what appears to be an effort to dampen dissent against his harsh rule, Khomeini has launched a campaign to curb the excesses of the Islamic Guards and the clergy. In an eight-point directive issued Dec. 15, he ordered an end to unlawful arrests and urged respect for human rights, private property and individual privacy. Last week Khomeini took yet another popular step: he had the leadership of the small pro-Moscow Tudeh (Communist) Party arrested on charges of treason and espionage for the Soviet Union. Khomeini, said an Iranian clergyman, seemed to be telling his people, "As long as you don't oppose me, do whatever pleases you." This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.