West Germany Reconsiders

When conservative West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl wrested power from the Social Democratic-led coalition of Helmut Schmidt more than three months ago, he took pains to emphasize his commitment to NATO's missile deployment plans. So did Kohl's new partner, the centrist Free Democratic Party (F.D.P.), which had been instrumental in causing the collapse of the Schmidt government by forming a new partnership with Kohl's Christian Democratic Union (C.D.U.) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (C.S.U.). Now, just five weeks before West Germans go to the polls in national elections on March 6, the missile issue has been thrust into the forefront of the election campaign. The debate has clouded Kohl's early prospects of victory and may subject West Germany to a siege of serious political instability.

Kohl now faces a growing fear among West Germans that U.S.-Soviet arms talks will prove fruitless, making deployment of the U.S.-made Pershing II and cruise missiles all but certain. According to a recent poll, 54% of Kohl's Christian Democratic supporters favor some kind of postponement in deploying the weapons, as do 65% of Social Democrats and 70% of Free Democratic voters. As a result, many West Germans are calling for an "interim solution" that would trim the number of missiles on both sides or put off deployment while talks continue. Kohl has rejected any compromise, arguing that such a course would undermine the U.S. zero-option bargaining position at Geneva. But C.D.U. strategists concede that the Chancellor knows public opinion is running against him and would welcome a more flexible approach by the Americans.

The search for an interim solution has been enthusiastically embraced by the Social Democrats, though the party officially favors deployment if talks break down. Says Hans-Jochen Vogel, the party's leader and candidate for Chancellor: "There has hardly ever been a negotiation in which the final result was identical to the opening position of one of the parties." He adds: "Kohl wants a mandate for deployment. I am fighting to avoid deployment." At a party convention last week, Vogel drew the loudest cheers when he called for a "constructive" U.S. reply to Soviet overtures for reciprocal arms reductions. Still, Vogel has been ambiguous enough in his approach to allow his party's pro-deployment believers, most notably Schmidt, to support him.

Hans-Dietrich Genscher, Kohl's Foreign Minister and the leader of the Free Democrats, in campaigning against Vogel declared that Bonn is not contemplating any change in the 1983 deployment date. But Genscher has also waffled on the deployment question. Addressing party officials, he went so far as to argue that an interim agreement was implicit in the initial "double-track" strategy adopted by NATO in 1979. Genscher said that the alliance could indeed stretch out deployment while talks continued.

The Free Democrats, still reeling from charges of opportunism for precipitously abandoning Schmidt last September, now enjoy the support of only 3% or 4% of the voting public. That is short of the 5% necessary to assure representation in the Bundestag. The C.D.U.-C.S.U. coalition has dropped slightly, from 51% to 49%, according to a recent poll. If the Free Democrats fail to qualify, Kohl could be forced to form a minority government. Meanwhile, the opposition is gaining on him. From a low of 30% in opinion polls last year, the Social Democrats have rebounded to 41%. The proenvironment, antimissile Green Party is enjoying 6% in the polls, and could well displace the F.D.P. from its traditional role as West Germany's pivotal third party. The prospect of the uncompromising Greens holding the parliamentary balance of power is unsettling to both major parties.

Even if Kohl wins the coming elections, his margin could be razor thin. Still, Kohl insists he will regard any victory as a mandate to deploy NATO missiles if the Geneva negotiations should collapse. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.