Warm Missive

Peking replies to the Soviets

It was hardly a love letter, but after more than two decades of rancorous relations, the message to the Soviet leadership on the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Soviet Union was remarkably warm. Expressing hopes for the gradual normalization of ties, the Chinese government urged both countries to "jointly work for the realization of this goal through negotiations, concrete actions and the removal of obstacles." Although the vaguely worded message promised nothing, it confirmed earlier signals that China was serious about improving relations with the Soviet Union. Says a top Washington analyst: "It is another step forward in the atmospherics."

The first step was taken three months ago, when Chinese Leader Deng Xiaoping agreed to resume consultations between the two countries after a frosty intermission of nearly three years. The Soviets, who have long hoped for better links with Peking, quickly responded. At Leonid Brezhnev's funeral last November, Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko went out of his way to give his Chinese counterpart, Huang Hua, a cordial welcome. After a 90-min. meeting, both sides declared that they were optimistic about the future of Sino-Soviet relations. Said TASS: "The Soviet leadership is striving to move these relations onto the track of good neighborliness." Although Huang was replaced as Foreign Minister after his return from Moscow by Wu Xueqian, a former Deputy Foreign Minister, the switch reflected no change in policy.

The Chinese have long insisted on three conditions before ties could be improved: the Soviets remove some of their 49 divisions from Mongolia and the shared border; they withdraw from Afghanistan; and they end their support of Viet Nam's occupation of Kampuchea. Lately, the Chinese have hinted that they would be willing to settle for less. One possibility, which the Soviets may accept, is a token reduction of Soviet troops along the border. Agreement on that issue alone, Chinese diplomats now say, would be enough to allow the two countries to conduct serious negotiations on trade, thus sidestepping the difficult issues of Afghanistan and Kampuchea.

The slowly thawing relationship is the result of a shift away from China's isolationism. In flirting with Moscow, the Chinese hope to exert some influence over Soviet policy, while pressuring the Reagan Administration to be more outspoken in its support of Peking. The move is also regarded as a natural extension of China's attempt to become more involved in world trade in order to develop its backward economy. Says a U.S. analyst: "The real mystery is why this has not happened before."

The tangible benefits of a rapprochement with the Soviet Union could be significant. China's aging industrial plant was built almost entirely with Soviet technology and hardware in the 1950s, when the two nations were allies. The Chinese may be counting on the Soviets to supply needed spare parts and machinery for the modernization of these factories, and for the construction of new ones, which are urgently needed. Relaxation of border tensions, which now tie up more than 1 million Chinese troops, could also help cut China's military expenditures. Says a U.S. diplomat in Washington: "The Chinese basically want some leverage over the Soviets, some diplomatic advantage, and they want economic aid. They're not expecting miracles."

U.S. officials are treating the slow courtship "with dignified calm," in the words of a U.S. official. Experts in Washington express confidence that enduring conflicts of interest, notably over Afghanistan and Kampuchea, will limit any new Sino-Soviet friendship. Says a U.S. analyst: "We don't really see these two agreeing on anything very significant. But we sure don't want them to, either." Even if the Soviets and the Chinese move closer, there will be plenty of warning. "The U.S. does not have to panic or go courting cravenly," says a U.S. diplomat. "We expect no dramatic changes. And those who are apprehensive should realize this will proceed slowly, and not necessarily inimically to U.S. interests."

One indication of China's continued restraint in dealing with the Soviets came last week. Only days after Peking sent Moscow the warm message, the Chinese called in harsh terms for the withdrawal of the U.S.S.R.'s "aggressor troops" from Afghanistan. And in a gesture apparently intended to reassure the U.S., Chinese leaders have postponed substantive talks with the Soviets until after Secretary of State George Shultz visits Peking in early February. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.