Making Headway on Defense

But a new TIME poll shows Reagan slipping in other areas

President Reagan still marches to a different martial drumbeat from the vast majority of Americans when he insists the pace of his record military buildup must not be slowed and the U.S. needs more nuclear weapons. Still, with the glaring exception of the homeless MX missile, Reagan is making significant progress in his drive to reshape public opinion on military matters. A surprising 39% of Americans even agree with the President's totally unsupported contention that the U.S. nuclear-freeze movement, which won impressive victories at the polls in eight states in November, is led by people who have been "duped" by foreign Communists.

These are among the findings of the latest poll for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White.* Since October, the poll shows, the percentage of Americans who believe the Reagan defense budget could be cut without jeopardizing U.S. security has fallen from 66% to 56%. While 71% in October thought the U.S. had "enough nuclear weapons to protect ourselves," this satisfied majority has shrunk to 59%. As to the nuclear-freeze movement, only 32% of Americans now see it as a genuine grass-roots drive (a decline from 38% last June), while 54% think it "mostly involves people who often have been involved in protest movements in the past."

Only on the MX is Reagan's military position eroding. Support for producing the MX, which reached 45% in September 1981, dropped to 35% in the latest poll, taken shortly after the President made his TV pitch for the missile. A slim majority (51%) opposes its production, while 14% are uncertain. Thus the congressional votes cast against the new weapon seem politically safe.

Even safer were the lawmakers who pushed last week for both a 5-c- increase in the gasoline tax to fund a highway and mass-transit rebuilding program, which had bipartisan backing, and a larger public works bill proposed by Democrats. The poll shows that 30% of Americans want only the highway-transit program, while 40% want both the road repairs and a larger jobs-creation program. One-fourth of the respondents rejected both of the proposals, while 5% cannot decide.

With Congress and Reagan headed for a possible showdown next year over the third installment of his three-year income tax reduction, the poll finds substantial public opposition to the 10% tax slash. Fully 47% of Americans prefer to cancel the cut if their altruism would help balance the federal budget, while 37% want the cut and 16% are undecided. A higher proportion of Republicans (53%) than Democrats (45%) would like to jettison the tax reduction.

Confidence in Reagan's ability to handle the responsibilities of his office seems to be slipping. While 36% felt that Reagan was providing "real leadership" two months ago, only 30% do so now. Faith in his capacity to deal effectively with the Soviet Union also has dropped, from 30% to 25% in the same period. The percentage of those who think he is helping to bring peace in the Middle East fell even more sharply, from 26% to 16%. Since last June, the percentage of those who feel that Reagan unfairly represents the rich has climbed from 58% to 63%, and the 61% who thought he often got facts wrong has risen to 69%.

Overall, a larger share of Americans (46%) hope Reagan will not seek re-election in 1984 than those who hope he will (39%, down 4% since October). Even among Republicans, only 58% prefer Reagan as their party's 1984 nominee.

On the Democratic side, the decision by Senator Edward Kennedy not to run has so far benefited only former Vice President Walter Mondale and Ohio Senator (and onetime Astronaut) John Glenn, both of whom have high name recognition going into the campaign. Among Democrats and independents, Mondale is now preferred by 33% and Glenn by 20%. No one else has more than a 4% following at this early stage.

* The survey polled 1,019 registered voters by telephone on Dec. 8 and 9. The sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When compared with the results of previous polls, the potential sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%.

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