Felipe's Decisive Victory

By Thomas A. Sancton

Socialists gain power after four decades

The first sign came from the northern provincial capital of Huesca, a traditionally conservative area, where the early returns showed the Socialists well ahead. Next came coastal Pontevedra, a longtime franquista stronghold in Galicia, which the Socialists came surprisingly close to carrying. Then the southern province of Alrneria, another conservative bastion, fell to the Socialists. Finally the rose-colored tide rolled across the plains of Old Castile.

By 11:55 p.m. last Friday, four hours after the polls closed, the outcome was already clear: a decisive victory for the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (P.S.O.E.), which will have an absolute majority of 201 seats in Spain's 350-member Cortes, up from 120 seats in 1979. The new conservative opposition party, Alianza Popular, finished a strong second with 106 seats. The Communists won only five seats, down from 20 in the outgoing parliament. In effect, the vote meant the total collapse of the political center, which has governed the country since the return of democracy in 1976 following the death of Generalissimo Francisco Franco. Thus, 43 years after their defeat in Spain's bloody Civil War, the Socialists were coming to power as a legitimate, popularly elected governing party for the first time in Spanish history.

"This election has entrusted the government of Spain to the Socialists for the next four years," said jubilant Party Leader Felipe Gonzalez Marquez in an early morning victory statement. Appealing to workers, employers, the bureaucracy and even "the military and forces of public order," the handsome, boyish-looking Gonzalez (who, at 40, becomes the youngest head of government in Western Europe) asked for the cooperation of "all sectors of society." The Socialist leader, who will take over as Prime Minister in December, said that the first domestic priority would be "overcoming the economic crisis." As for foreign policy, he said, "we are going to work for Spain, for peace between nations, for detente and dialogue, and for the populations who suffer from violated human rights."

That speech came as a climax to a late night vigil at Socialist election headquarters in Madrid's Palace Hotel. A crowd of some 4,000 applauded as results were flashed on a giant 30-ft. color-television screen outside the hotel. Party workers sent up occasional chants of "Felipe, Presidentel Felipe, Presidente!" while other supporters converged on the capital's main square, singing, dancing and hugging one another. One grizzled workingman with a red bandanna on his neck embraced a well-wisher with tears in his eyes and announced hoarsely, "Espana socialista!" Overall, however, the crowds were relatively subdued, partly because the outcome had been so widely predicted, and partly because Gonzalez had appealed for the "avoidance of any provocation" that might upset the stability of Spain's fledgling democracy.

Indeed, the main fear hanging over the election was the possibility that the country's strongly franquista military leadership would pre-empt the leftist victory by force. One aborted coup plot had been uncovered early last month, and rumors of other such attempts abounded throughout the campaign. Some analysts continued to believe that army hard-liners might try to stage an uprising during the delicate transition period by to the formation of a Socialist government next month.

Another possible reason for the Socialists' sobriety was the realization that their victory had not solved the formidable array of problems facing the country. Among them: a recession-bound economy that has 16% unemployment and 12% inflation, the continuing threat of Basque terrorism and the bitter debates that are developing over Socialist promises to legalize abortion and to withdraw Spain from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization by referendum.

The Spanish election was closely watched in other international capitals, particularly since it came in the wake of Socialist victories in France, Greece and Sweden and seemed to some observers to suggest a leftward swing in Western European politics. Most analysts, however, saw it as part of a mixed trend in which widespread economic problems tended to work against incumbent governments (see following story).

Regardless of the specific issues raised on the hustings, the election seemed to revolve around the personal style and leadership qualities of Felipe Gonzalez (see box). Criss-crossing the country during the grueling 25-day campaign, the youthful Andalusian lawyer sought to project an image of honesty and moderation.

Gonzalez's tone of reasonableness was reflected in the Socialist electoral platform. Its main focus is a plan to fight unemployment by creating 200,000 jobs annually over the next four years. Unlike France's Socialist President Franc,ois Mitterrand, Gonzalez does not seek to make jobs through sweeping nationalizations. Indeed, the only segment of the economy proposed for state takeover is the electrical grid. Instead, the party calls for a tightly controlled state credit program to support small and medium-size business investment in depressed areas. In foreign policy, the P.S.O.E. platform has a neutralist tinge and, in its most controversial position, raises the possibility of Spain's withdrawal from NATO.

Gonzalez's campaign ended in Madrid, where a crowd of 200,000 gathered under floodlights to cheer him. Following an elaborate multimedia show, Gonzalez appeared at the podium for his final pre-election speech. His intense, perspiring face was projected on a giant TV screen, erected over the center stage, that enabled the crowd to see the candidate's face from half a mile away. Dressed in a gray flannel suit and sporting fashionably long hair, Gonzalez called the election "a plebiscite, which confronts the people with a choice between a Socialist government or a vacuum, because no other serious alternative has been offered to the citizens of Spain."

In fact, a conservative alternative had been offered in the person of Manuel Fraga Iribarne, 59, Franco's onetime Minister for Information and Tourism and founder of the Alianza Popular party. An unreconstructed authoritarian, but no fascist, the barrel-chested, pugnacious Fraga had campaigned energetically on a platform of lower taxes, a hands-off policy for Spain's protected business and, most of all, strong law-and-order and solicitous support for the army.

Despite the Socialist victory, Fraga had reason to be pleased over the election results. By increasing its strength dramatically, the fledgling Alianza Popular emerged as the country's second largest party. Fraga will serve as leader of the opposition, seeking to limit the Socialists' innovations while respecting the democratic process that put them in power. His hope is that the country will become disillusioned with the Socialists within two years and turn to him as its next Prime Minister. Fraga's supporters, who gathered at the Luz Palacio Hotel for an election-night celebration, felt that their leader had done well. Their welcome was so tumultuous, in fact, that the candidate was bumped on the head and slightly cut by a TV camera as well-wishers flocked around him.

No other party could hope to challenge Fraga's predominance within the opposition. Led by the lackluster Landelino Lavilla, 47, the outgoing Union of the Democratic Center (U.C.D.) fell from 168 to 13 seats, and only one of its 20 incumbent ministers was even re-elected to parliament. The new Democratic and Social Center Party, a splinter group founded by former U.C.D. Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez, 50, won only two seats, one of them his own.

Many Spaniards bemoaned the collapse of the center as a dangerous first step toward the sort of left-right polarization that precipitated the Civil War in 1936. Others felt that a healthy two-party parliamentary system in Spain might be stronger than a less stable multiparty system. "You can make a very positive case for having one big solid party in power and another big solid party in opposition and ready to assume power in its turn," said a high-ranking Western diplomat in Madrid. "The pessimistic presumption is that polarization is dangerous in Spain, for obvious historical reasons."

Whether or not Spain's bloody history repeats itself depends in large measure on the attitude of the armed forces, the country's last major bastion of franquismo. Coup jitters had intensified in the face of a likely Socialist victory. During the last day of the campaign, the 2,000-man detachment of Royal Guards, who protect King Juan Carlos' palace outside Madrid, were out on full alert with orders to shoot, just because a column of armored vehicles rolled near the palace grounds.

But after the election, Brigadier General Antonio Rodriguez Toquero declared that "the Spanish army will respect the result of the elections." Probably the best "protection against a future coup attempt remains the King, who is respected by the largely monarchist army and has proved to be an ardent defender of democracy. Indeed, it was the King who personally thwarted the attempted coup in 1981, when military men seized the parliament.

Spain's other major conservative stronghold, the business community, was cool. Jose Maria Cuevas, secretary-general of the Spanish Confederation of Employers' Organizations, said that while businessmen "do not agree with some of the Socialist plans," they sought "a sincere dialogue with the new government, because this is a fundamental of an employers' organization." Some businessmen expressed grave reservations at the prospect of a Socialist regime. Warned Jose Antonio Segurado, vice president of the employers' confederation: "You will see, after they try to spend too much to produce jobs they cannot deliver, they will start ruling by decree. They will control prices, and they will control wages. There is no way out of our present impasse except sacrifices."

The most intractable opponent for Gonzalez's untested team may prove to be the economy, which will give him little room to maneuver in carrying out Socialist programs. A report issued by the Bank of Spain last week outlined an austere economic stabilization plan that includes wage limitations and a tighter monetary and fiscal policy. Most economists feel that the Socialists have little choice but to accept such measures. But in the flush of the Socialists' victory, Gonzalez and his fellow moderates may come under heavy pressure from their left wing to launch radical economic and social programs. "To the extent that Felipe may have to accommodate some of that leftist pressure," said a diplomatic observer in Madrid, "it would invite a strong attack from the right."

Those and other battles will be joined soon enough. For the present, Spain was calm and triumphant. For the third time since Franco's death, the country had freely elected a government, this time with a record voter turnout of 79.5%. With each trip to the polls, the people of Spain seemed to gain in political maturity and to reinforce the underpinnings of their young democracy.

--By Thomas A. Sancton. Reported by Jordan Bonfante and Lawrence Malkin/Madrid

With reporting by Jordan Bonfante, Lawrence Malkin

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