Changing of the Guard

By George Russell

Schmidt is out, Kohl is in, and an ambiguous new era beckons

Finally, the weeks of confusion and political conniving had come to an end. Bored though they were by a debate that had droned on for more than five hours, members of West Germany's parliament watched closely as Bundestag President Richard Stuecklen rose to make a curt announcement: the opposition motion of no confidence in the minority government of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt had carried by a vote of 256 to 235, with four abstentions. While colleagues began congratulating Opposition Leader Helmut Kohl, the Christian Democratic Party chairman grinned broadly as he acknowledged the results of the ballot. Said Kohl: "Mr. President, I accept the vote."

Through a seldom used constitutional provision called a "constructive" vote of no confidence, Kohl, 52, had become West Germany's sixth and youngest postwar Chancellor, ending 13 years of continuous rule by Social Democratic governments. Hours after the decision, an ebullient Kohl, garbed in cutaway coat, striped trousers and top hat, accepted the formal document of his appointment from Karl Carstens, President of the Federal Republic. Kohl declared his unprecedented parliamentary victory "a great day for democracy" and proclaimed the task ahead to be "a spiritual and moral challenge."

Last week's momentous Bundestag vote grew out of weeks of virtual paralysis and political infighting between the country's major parties following the Sept. 17 breakup of Helmut Schmidt's ruling center-left coalition. It marked the first time in West Germany's postwar history that a change in leadership was brought about by the use of the "constructive" procedure.* The unorthodox method of the changing of the guard in Bonn gave an element of instability and uncertainty to the fledgling Kohl government, which has tentatively promised national elections for next March 6. Kohl's new coalition is untested, and his Christian Democratic Union has not been overwhelmingly successful in recent state elections. Kohl's new junior partners, the Free Democrats, led by Schmidt's former Foreign Minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, carry the stigma of having bolted from their longtime coalition with the Social Democrats. Since then they have suffered severe setbacks at the state level.

Beyond that, the new Chancellor will face vigorous opposition from the Social Democrats and from West Germany's rising third force of environmentalists and antinuclear activists known as the Greens. Kohl seemed to grasp the political difficulties confronting him as he faced television cameras after the Bundestag vote. Said he: "Now I am the Chancellor. I have been in politics too long, know too much about the daily routine of politics, not to know what difficulties lie ahead."

Schmidt, 63, looked ashen as he shook hands with Kohl following the Bundestag debate that preceded the balloting. After eight highly visible years as Chancellor, Schmidt precipitated the no-confidence vote when he abruptly broke up the S.P.D.'s alliance with the Free Democrats and called unsuccess fully for new elections after it had become obvious last month that the Free Democratic Party (F.D.P.) was about to switch its allegiance to Kohl. Schmidt's departure from the glass-and-steel Chancellery in Bonn marks the end of an era. The economist-politician from Hamburg, a man of formidable intellect and political skill, established himself as a world statesman, the first West German leader since World War II to pursue an assertive foreign policy unclouded by guilt about the past. One long time acquaintance who was shocked by Schmidt's defeat, former U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, praised the ousted Chancellor for "his great intelligence and a great deal of wisdom -- he has a rare combination of both."

Schmidt spent his last evening as Chancellor working in his office until about 8 p.m., then took a car to S.P.D. headquarters on Bonn's Ollenhauerstrasse to address a rain-drenched rally of some 1,500 party faithful. Wearing his trademark blue wool sailor's cap, Schmidt drew thunderous cheers as he de clared: "The S.P.D. is the only party committed to peacemaking."

The Bundestag convened promptly at 9 the next morning. Speaker after speaker from each side droned on, charging the opposing forces with treachery and duplicity. Schmidt, dressed in a dark-blue suit, sat in the first seat of the government bench, characteristically studying documents, making small marginal notes, seemingly paying no attention to the debate. Kohl occupied seat No. 13 of the opposition benches; behind and above him, in the chamber's diplomatic gallery, were Kohl's wife Hannelore and their two sons, Walter, 20, and Peter, 18.

Schmidt began his 58-min. valedictory speech with a litany of S.P.D. accomplishments over the past 13 years. Then he lashed out at the newly formed center-right coalition that was about to bring down his government. "Your way of behaving is legal, but it has no inner, no moral justification," shouted Schmidt. "The voters will not forget this behavior for many years." He admonished Kohl to "tell the whole people to day, without ifs or buts, that we will elect a new parliament on March 6." Because of all the speeches, the secret balloting on Kohl's no-confidence motion began two hours later than scheduled. Though the votes were tallied behind closed doors, expectant Christian Democratic deputies got advance word that Kohl had won, and began slapping each other on the back and shaking hands. Exulted one: "We're back where we belong at last!"

Five days before the Bundestag ballot, West German voters seemed to display their unease about the impending new coalition in elections for the local parliament of the central industrial state of Hesse. Widely expected to win a clear majority in that election, the Christian Democrats polled 45.6% of the vote. The Free Democrats were wiped out of the assembly, gaining only 3.1% of the vote, far less than the 5% necessary to retain representation. Campaigning vigorously under the slogan "Betrayal in Bonn," Schmidt's Social Democrats gained 42.8%, an increase of more than 10 percentage points over their predicted total. Said S.D.P. Chairman Willy Brandt after the election: "The electorate has spoken. The Hesse elections have strong national implications."

Brandt hoped that the Hesse results would deter the Free Democrats from joining forces with Kohl. Two days after the election, however, the 54 Free Democrat members of the Bundestag decided by a vote of 34 to 18 to go ahead with the no-confidence maneuver.

A low-key politician from Rhine-land-Palatinate who has spent three decades in Christian Democratic national politics, Kohl is a striking contrast to the hard-driving and brilliant but sometimes arrogant Schmidt. Known in West Germany as the Black Giant, the dark-com plexioned 6-ft. 4-in. jowly Kohl is folksy, gregarious and a devout Roman Catholic. In the Bundestag, Schmidt is always poised and formal. Kohl, on the other hand, has frequently been seen sitting on the opposition benches roaring with laughter, as if parliamentary business were some huge joke. Kohl is fond of saying that "my strength is that people are ready to buy a used car from me without testing it."

The personal differences between Kohl and Schmidt will undoubtedly stand out most sharply at international conference tables. With his economist's training and his experience as West German Defense Minister under Brandt, Schmidt brought vast expertise to international economic issues and nu clear defense questions within NATO, a gap that Kohl cannot hope to fill. Balanced against that, however, was Schmidt's notorious impatience, which drew sparks from other strong-willed statesmen, and his increasingly frequent bouts of personal depression.

Despite his inexperience, the jovial Kohl may get along better than Schmidt did with Ronald Reagan and Britain's Margaret Thatcher. The fact that the three share a conservative political philosophy may be more important than one impediment to mutual understanding: Kohl speaks little English. In Washington, White House officials note with pleasure such Kohl statements as: "People have come to think of the Soviet Union only as a detente and trade partner. We have to remind them of the true nature of Soviet expansionism."

On major foreign policy issues, however, the difference between Kohl and Schmidt, at least in the short term, is more likely to be one of tone rather than substance -- what a Kohl aide has called "continuity with new accents." The new Chancellor will echo Schmidt's firm stand in support of the 1983 installation of intermediate-range cruise and Pershing II missiles in Western Europe, although he may face more vociferous opposition than his predecessor did from West Germany's burgeoning anti-nuclear movement. Also, Kohl is unlike ly to change West Germany's position on the building of the Soviet gas pipe line, since the project will have a direct effect on his country's business interests.

Kohl will have to tread cautiously at home. Even before his Bundestag victory last week, West Germany's powerful trade unions had begun girding for conflict with the new Chancellor, who must quickly come to grips with problems of the country's sagging economy. The most sensitive issue is social-welfare spending: at a time when 1.8 million West Germans are unemployed, businessmen are complaining loudly that 70% of their labor costs are for social benefits, the steepest percentage in Western Europe. Says Liane Launhardt, an economist for the Frankfurt-based Commerzbank: "There is no doubt that what we have done over the years is escalate the social safety net." Agrees Economist Wolfgang Baumann of the Cologne-based Federation of Industry: "What we need is a shift to supply-side economics, German-style."

Any such move is liable to trigger harsh union reaction. In response to a relatively mild Kohl proposal for limiting public-sector wage increases, Monika Wulf-Mathies, leader of the country's 1 .2 million-member civil servants union, called the plan a "declaration of war," and threatened strike action if the proposal is carried out. Having long and patiently planned his parliamentary assault on the Chancellor's office, Kohl must now prepare for all the battles that his new job will entail.

-- By George Russell.

Reported by Roland Flamini and John Moody/ Bonn

*Under Article 67 of West Germany's constitutional Basic Law, a simple majority of deputies in the 497-seat Bundestag can remove the Chancellor provided that they "constructively" designate a successor. As Christian Democratic leader in 1972, Rainer Barzel tried and failed to use the provision to topple Social Democratic Chancellor Willy Brandt.

With reporting by Roland Flamini and John Moody/ Bonn

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