Making a Deal

Diplomacy behind the scenes

For years it has been one of the most intractable problems of international diplomacy: finding a way to make Namibia independent. Now under a United Nations trusteeship, Namibia is the scene of a bloody and bitter war between neighboring South Africa, which has wanted to control the area, and a group of determined guerrillas, who want self-rule. In the past few months, a series of quiet talks and behind-the-scenes negotiations at the U.N. and in Europe have progressed enough that last week U.S. diplomats were cautiously saying that a settlement seemed to be taking form.

Guerrilla Leader Sam Nujoma, president of the South West African People's Organization (SWAPO), said last week in Tripoli that while his forces would keep on fighting until a cease-fire was reached, SWAPO would take part in talks currently going on in New York City. The participants include South Africa, neighboring African states and the five Western powers (the U.S., Britain, France, West Germany, Canada) delegated by the U.N. to attempt to reach a settlement. Said a top U.S. official: "All sides have shown considerable flexibility. The political will seems to be there."

Ironically, while the diplomats were covering ground, both SWAPO and South Africa were stepping up their military activities last week in order to gain an advantage before a cease-fire was declared. South African defense forces admitted that a Puma helicopter carrying twelve paratroopers and three crew members had been shot down while on a mission against SWAPO units in Angola, which is directly north of Namibia. SWAPO has long used Angola as a refuge from South Africans. Everyone aboard the helicopter was killed, making the loss the worst single incident of the war or South Africa.

In the past month the South Africans have destroyed at least two and possibly three forward SWAPO bases in Angola. In Tripoli, Angolan Foreign Minister Paulo Jorge charged that a large-scale South African invasion of his country had been under way since Aug. 2. Reports from Windhoek, the Namibian capital, tended to corroborate Jorge's accusation.

Still, the Western powers working to end the 16-year war could make some substantial claims of success. The first phase of the settlement, determining the constitutional principles and ground rules for elections that are scheduled to be held in March 1983, is all but concluded. Yet to be decided is whether elections will be held on the basis of proportional representation favored by SWAPO or the constituency approach that would help preserve some of the white-supported fringe groups. The second phase of the negotiations, dealing with the makeup of UNTAG, the 7,500-man U.N. peace-keeping force that will supervise the transition, is also well along. South Africa has proposed a multiethnic force drawn from eight African countries, Europe, Asia and Latin America that is expected to be acceptable to SWAPO.

The stumbling block to an agreement remains the terms on which South Africa will withdraw its forces from the territory they have continued to hold in defiance of a 1978 U.N. resolution calling for their departure. SWAPO and its African allies refuse to allow elections until the South African troops have left. Pretoria, however, has said that it would pull out its men only when the 20,000-man Cuban contingent leaves Angola. The Cubans have been aiding the Luanda government since it became independent from Portugal in 1975.

A senior official in the Reagan Administration declared last week that "discussions of the greatest sensitivity" were being held by the U.S. and Angola. Said a top State Department specialist: "We've got to have some parallel movement on the Cuban issue or we won't get a deal." The U.S. believes that Angola may be ready to send the Cubans home because of the mounting cost of maintaining them.

The possibility of an imminent solution to the 30-year-old dispute has sent a flicker of excitement through the usual Germanic calm of Windhoek. Along Kaiserstrasse, the main street, office space is being booked by agents of the Western countries negotiating the settlement. The Windhoek show grounds are being swept for possible use as a U.N. barracks, and Windhoek's topless massage parlors are preparing to recruit extra staff from South Africa The city that has been moribund for so long is finally, like the diplomats, showing some optimism.

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