Second Thoughts on the Pipeline

Second Thoughts of the Pipeline

The White House may be seeking a quiet way to reverse itself

Even as the Administration embarked on a risky new military-diplomatic venture in the Middle East, it was simultaneously trying to soften the impact of a wholly different foreign policy venture that had all the earmarks of failure. At issue: Ronald Reagan's on-again, off-again attempt to block construction of the $10 billion, 3,500-mile pipeline that will carry Soviet natural gas from Siberia to energy-hungry Western Europe. Washington's opposition to the pipeline, which the allies regard as essential to their economies, has opened a rift that threatens to undermine the solidarity of NATO. Thus, less than two weeks after Reagan defined the U.S. stance as "a matter of principle," the Administration appeared to be looking for a face-saving way to ease its recently imposed ban on the use of American-designed equipment in the pipeline.

Officially, the White House denies that there has been any change in policy. Presidential Spokesman Larry Speakes last week described a New York Times story that asserted the Administration wanted to ease the embargo as "basically not true." Other sources in the Government, however, suspect that the story was a trial balloon floated by the White House itself. And even one presidential aide admitted (privately) that his boss "would very much like to lift these sanctions."

In January the Administration imposed a ban on direct sales of equipment for the pipeline by American companies; last month a presidential order extended the embargo to sales of equipment, primarily rotor blades for compressors that drive the gas through the pipeline, made by foreign manufacturers under American license. Both the State and Commerce departments warned that the latter move would especially infuriate the Europeans. The White House now seems belatedly to realize that they were right.

But how can the ban be lifted without admitting error? Ostensibly, the sanctions were first imposed, and then tightened, in retaliation for the imposition of martial law in Poland. In the past, State Department officials have listed three conditions for easing the ban: an end to martial law; freeing all Polish political prisoners; the start of negotiations among the Polish government, the Solidarity trade union and the Roman Catholic Church. Administration sources privately concede that the White House would now accept any one of these steps--or even a milder move, such as the release of Solidarity Leader Lech Walesa from house arrest--as justification for loosening the sanctions.

Logically, however, this position makes little sense. Pentagon officials, as well as the President, have long argued that the pipeline will make European allies vulnerable to Soviet energy blackmail and that gas sales will give the Soviets billions in hard cash that they can use to speed their military buildup. The release of Walesa would not change these strategic calculations. It has become increasingly clear that Washington's hopes of blocking the pipeline were slim. At most, American sanctions might delay construction, and that hardly seemed worth the cost in European ill-will. The White House clearly underestimated the depth of European resentment, despite warnings from, among others, former Secretary of State Alexander Haig (the pipeline furor played no small part in his abrupt resignation last month). British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, visiting Washington shortly after the sanctions were tightened, vehemently protested the move. A surprised Reagan responded: "But I thought you could live with it." Thatcher made it clear that she could not.

By linking the sanctions to conditions in Poland, the U.S. is in the awkward position of relying on the Poles and their Soviet mentors to make possible a healing of the split in NATO. Some Western European governments, however, are exploring another possible compromise: a crackdown on loans to the Soviet bloc, in return for a partial lifting of the pipeline-equipment ban. The U.S. had tried to win such a promise at last month's Versailles summit. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt last week discussed with Dutch Prime Minister Andreas van Agt the credit restrictions they might impose.

The Soviets, meanwhile, are trying to exploit the allied split. Kremlin leaders last week summoned to Moscow executives of European companies that have contracted to supply American-licensed equipment for the pipeline, and threatened them with heavy financial penalties if they do not defy the U.S. ban. The Soviets have also boasted that they are both willing and able to make the equipment themselves, if need be. Western industry sources say this would take two to three years. Televised rallies were staged last week in dozens of Soviet factories, where workers pledged to labor overtime to build the pipeline rotors.

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