Radical, Resentful, but Ambiguous

By William E. Smith

An unprecedented TIME poll gauges feelings in the West Bank

The unresolved status of the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza Strip is, by almost universal agreement, the most pressing problem in the Middle East today. On many occasions the leaders of various Arab states have chosen to speak in behalf of the Palestinians. For 15 years the Israeli occupiers of the West Bank and Gaza have based their administration on presumptions concerning Palestinian attitudes. But rarely, in all that time, have the Palestinians had a chance to speak for themselves.

Two months ago TIME commissioned the PORI Institute, a highly respected Tel Aviv public opinion research organization, to conduct a poll in the West Bank. PORI is directed by its founder Rafael Gill, 51, a sociologist with an M.A. from New York City's New School for Social Research. Since 1966 PORI has been surveying opinion on topics of current interest; its polls are regularly published by the independent newspaper Ha'aretz.

The results of the PORl-TIME poll are both fascinating and troubling. They reveal a high degree of radicalization and disillusionment among West Bank Arabs, as well as a resentful, if somewhat ambiguous, attitude toward their Israeli occupiers. The findings tend to refute the view of Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon that West Bank Palestinians, if they could be isolated from the Palestine Liberation Organization's influence, would settle for some sort of "autonomy" under moderate local Arab leadership. On the other hand, the results document commonly expressed Israeli fears that any independent Palestinian state would be radical, P.L.O.-dominated and proSoviet. Says Director Gill: "The poll is not bad at all for Israel."

Nonetheless, the poll became a subject of controversy even before its results were known. Though the survey was conducted by an Israeli firm in conjunction with sociologists from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, the actual interviewing was carried out in Arabic by some 40 Palestinians, who talked with a total of 441 people living in 58 West Bank towns, villages and refugee camps. The sample was selected to reflect the distribution of population according to sex, age and geographical location.

When they learned of the project, Israeli authorities charged that the poll violated both a 1950 Jordanian law, retained by the Israelis after the 1967 occupation, forbidding the collection or publication of "statistical data" without prior permission, and two Israeli military regulations for the occupied territories. One of the Israeli rules banned publication of material of "political significance"; the other for bade "publishing, in writing or orally, praises, sympathy or support of a hostile organization." The Israeli authorities accused PORI of using "a member of a Palestinian Arab terrorist group" to canvass public opinion. They arrested that polltaker and confiscated some of his data. None of the seized material was used in tabulating the poll. Last week the Israeli government decided not to prosecute TIME. Pointing out that any violation of existing laws or regulations had been unintentional, TIME agreed to show the poll's results to the Israeli government for its comments.

Some of the findings were quite predictable. For instance, 86% of all respondents said they wanted a Palestinian state run solely by the P.L.O. Fully 50% thought that Yasser Arafat should lead the Palestinians, followed by the radical Naif Hawatmeh with 12% and the Marxist George Habash with 7%. Even so, a significant 25% wanted nothing to do with any of the P.L.O. leaders mentioned.

Presumably these 25% were thinking of local West Bank leaders. Of these, the most popular by far turned out to be recently dismissed Nablus Mayor Bassam Shaka'a (68%), followed by another pro-P.L.O. politician, Karim Khalaf of Ramallah (18%). By contrast, Mustafa Dudeen, who runs the pro-Israeli village leagues, scored a minuscule .2%. Bethlehem's moderate, pragmatic Mayor Elias Freij did only slightly better, with .5%.

More than half the respondents (56%) said they wanted a "secular-democratic" Palestinian state, but 35% favored an outright Islamic state. As for the economic system that such a state would have, 57% favored socialism, and 16% wanted a Communist system--a surprisingly high figure in light of the opposition of many Muslims to Communism. By contrast, 18% favored a mixed economy, and only 3% supported a purely capitalist system.

The radicalization of West Bank residents was further demonstrated by the fact that 72% chose the Soviet Union as the country they most admired, and 82% named it as the country most helpful to the Palestinian cause (vs. .5% for the U.S.). Among Arab states, the respondents preferred the radical ones, led by Syria (33%) and Libya (29%). Libya's Muammar Gaddafi was the most admired Arab leader (40%), well ahead of Syrian President Hafez Assad (11%). Trailing in the popularity chart were Jordan's King Hussein (4%), Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak (1%) and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Fahd (.9%). Still, no fewer than 40% of the respondents said they admired "none of the above."

The poll was conducted between April 4 and 15, a period of considerable unrest in the West Bank. A shooting rampage by a U.S.-born Israeli soldier at Jerusalem's Dome of the Rock had inflamed Arab opinion during a period when animosities were running high as the result of an Israeli decision to fire several Arab mayors in the West Bank. Nonetheless, questions probing Palestinian attitudes about Israelis revealed some contradictions. At a time when West Bank demonstrators were rioting and being shot at by Israeli soldiers, 16% of the respondents said they had personal friends who were Israelis, and 29% said there were Israelis who can be trusted.

In a question designed to determine whether political views spilled over into personal prejudices, fully a third of those people who had visited both Jewish and Arab hospitals actually said they would prefer to have their children treated in an Israeli hospital. When asked to describe an Israeli in terms of one of five colloquial phrases commonly used in Arabic ("a kind of superman," "a sort of angel," "someone like you," "a mean-spirited person" or "a monster"), 39% said "a monster," and 26% said "a mean-spirited person." Curiously, a higher number (44%) said that in 1967 they would have thought of an Israeli as being "a monster." Another difference between 1967 and today is in the number of people saying that an Israeli is "someone like you." In 1967, that figure was 23%, but in 1982, it had risen to 29%. No doubt the change is a result of personal contacts made possible by 15 years of occupation. Still, 15% said they had never met an Israeli face-to-face.

As might be expected, 98% of the respondents said that they favored the creation of a Palestinian state. Yet only 59% agree with the P.L.O. that such a state should encompass "all of Palestine" (i.e., including Israel); 27% seem ready to accept a Palestinian state made up of only the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Finally, the poll reveals the state of disillusionment and perhaps desperation in which West Bank Palestinians presently live. When asked which political party they would prefer to see in power in Israel, .9% chose Prime Minister Menachem Begin's Likud coalition, 2% mentioned the Labor Party, and 93% said it would make no difference. Asked which of these situations--"war," "being without money" or "continuing forever under Israeli rule"--seemed most threatening, 86% cited permanent Israeli rule. Only 2% replied that the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty helped the Palestinian cause, while 88% called it a hindrance.

Even before the poll had been completed and the results tabulated, Israeli authorities charged, in a statement to TIME, that the survey had been conducted in "a most unprofessional and unscientific manner." The statement pointed out that the names and addresses of interviewees had not been included on some questionnaires. It also criticized some of the questions as being "leading and loaded," objecting particularly to the question that asked interviewees to associate the word "Israeli" with "a mean-spirited person" or "a monster." TIME sent a copy of the complete and tabulated results to the Justice Ministry in Jerusalem, which then forwarded them to the Foreign Ministry. But the government decided not to comment at that time.

In fact, the poll was conducted with the assistance of Israeli Arab sociologists. Since many interviewees prefer to remain anonymous, there was no requirement that names and addresses be listed on the forms. According to Pollster Gill, PORI follows similar practices when conducting public opinion surveys in Israel. U.S. polling organizations also do not always insist upon having the names and addresses of persons interviewed. The questions attempted to elicit political views and probe Palestinian attitudes toward Israelis under conditions in which the respondents would feel they could speak freely. The "monster" question, based on colloquial Arabic expressions, was part of an effort to analyze attitudes and prejudices and ascertain to what extent these may have changed since 1967.

To be sure, this opinion poll, like any other, is an imperfect reflection of human attitudes. Gill estimates that an error of 4% to 5% is normal in a survey of this size. But as a bit of pioneering research into the thinking of a people who so rarely have a chance to speak for themselves, the PORI poll offers some useful and unsettling insights. --By William E. Smith. Reported by David Aikman/Jerusalem

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN

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