In the Footsteps of Sadat

By Marguerite Johnson

Mubarak quietly charts a course of national unity

Peace and prosperity: Anwar Sadat used to argue that if he could only achieve the first, the second would follow. But when the Egyptian President was slain last October, the peace he had achieved and enshrined in a treaty with Israel was all but overshadowed at home by a bitter polarization between self-interested rich and resentful poor.

Since taking office after the assassination, Sadat's successor, President Hosni Mubarak, has acted with quiet determination to keep both parts of that pledge and lead his country on a course of national unity. He has repeatedly stated that Egypt remains committed to the terms of the Camp David peace treaty, both before and after Israel's return of the last part of the Sinai peninsula on April 25. Says an Egyptian editor: "Mubarak has made peace the policy of Egypt, not just the policy of Sadat." At the same time, the President has promised to chart a new economic future for the country, with his own government acting as an example of austerity. Officials last week announced that there will be no more expensive military parades like the one at which Sadat was killed. The lavish celebrations Sadat had planned to commemorate the return of the Sinai are also being scaled down. As Mubarak prepared for his first visit as President to the U.S. this week, he left behind a nation unmistakably on the mend from the trauma of Sadat's assassination.

Mubarak's moves indicate he has taken a sensitive reading of the public mind. For all his popularity in the West, Sadat did not enjoy great love and esteem at home. Many Egyptians felt that his regime was not only repressive but insensitive to their needs. Sadat's imperial lifestyle fueled intense resentment among a populace with a per capita income averaging only $469 a year. And his "open door" economic policy, intended to attract Western capital, served mainly to flood the country with luxury consumer goods and create a new class of millionaire middlemen and hustlers.

Mubarak's personal style could hardly be more in contrast with his predecessor's. A career air force officer from Sadat's home province who was Air Force Commander at the time of the 1973 October War, Mubarak had never spent a day in politics when Sadat picked him to be his Vice President in 1975. He proved to be the perfect foil for the dynamic, charismatic Sadat: efficient, disciplined, self-effacing. He has not changed. Since taking office, Mubarak, 53, has made only four public appearances. His speeches are short and to the point, and he has no interest in ceremony. As he complains to aides: "When every chicken lays an egg, must I be present for the photographer?"

Yet with relative ease he has been able to bring about a tangible if subtle change in the country's mood. He not only released many of the prominent intellectuals and opposition politicians whom Sadat had arrested last September, but invited a number of them to his office to talk. It is expected that, in time, most of the 4,000 dissidents now being held will be released. Some Egyptians have observed that the country seems freer now than it has in years, though it is still under a state of emergency. Cairo newspapers, tightly controlled during the Sadat era, have begun cautiously printing articles about government corruption and other once taboo subjects.

Mubarak has dealt firmly with the country's Moslem militants without seeming to be vengeful. Like Sadat, he says he will not permit religious-based political parties. But Sociologist Saad Eddin Ibrahim of the American University in Cairo observes, "He is not doing things that antagonize the militants. He gives an image of being clean, firm and fair." The fundamentalists, in fact, approve of Mubarak's campaign against corruption, his proposal to curb luxury imports, and his studiously private family life. "Some of the militants think he is redeemable and that they can establish a dialogue with him," says Ibrahim. Explains Mohammed Heikal, the influential former editor of the daily al Ahram, who was among those Mubarak freed: "No self-respecting Egyptian can deny Mubarak his support when he says, 'Let us turn a new page,' and when he tells all forces that he is ready to accept their participation and hear their views."

Mubarak is mindful, as was Sadat, that Egypt's economy was ruined by its wars with Israel. Without repudiating peace, he is expected to repair relations with the Arab states that broke with Sadat because of his overtures to Israel. One reason: Mubarak wants Arab investment in Egypt to help with his development plans. In similar fashion, he has tightened Cairo's military pact with the neighboring Sudan, begun diversifying Egypt's sources of weaponry with a new $1 billion contract with France for 20 Mirage 2000 fighters, and reasserted the country's fundamental commitment to the nonaligned movement. He has also taken a small step toward renewing ties with Moscow, which were all but severed last fall when Sadat expelled the Soviet ambassador, six diplomats and 1,000 technicians on charges of fomenting religious strife. Mubarak last week invited 66 Soviet technicians to return to fulfill their contracts on the Aswan High Dam and other projects, and added that an exchange of ambassadors with the U.S.S.R. was probably "inevitable."

As for the U.S., relations are likely to remain close, with Egypt scheduled to receive $2 billion in American aid this year. On his visit to Washington this week, Mubarak is expected to ask President Reagan for more military aid and more flexibility in using U.S. economic aid. On the arms question, he may ask for "parity" with Israel--$1.5 billion in credits and forgiveness of half of that. Washington, for economic and political reasons, will have to refuse. But the Administration is sympathetic to Egypt's need to modernize its equipment and its desire for faster delivery. U.S. officials hope to balance things out by giving Mubarak what he wants in development aid and shading his request for military aid, with perhaps some small increase. Cairo, however, does not want the price of its requests for aid to be pressure to sign an unsatisfactory agreement with Israel on Palestinian autonomy or, for that matter, other overt concessions that would make Egypt lose credibility in the Arab world. Says one Egyptian observer: "Many Egyptians think America stamped Sadat as the American stooge. America should not try to do that with Mubarak. That is dangerous for him and bad for America."

For the present, Mubarak can count on a strong measure of good will from Egyptians. He has given them stability in the aftermath of the assassination and stirred hopes that he can continue the peace and make Egypt a more prosperous nation. Meeting those expectations will be difficult; some fear that people are expecting too much. But there is general agreement that Mubarak has made a remarkable beginning, even if, as a Cairo editor says, "it's like the first step of a thousand-mile journey."

--By Marguerite Johnson.

Reported by Robert C. Wurmstedt/Cairo

With reporting by Robert C. Wurmstedt/Cairo

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