The Time Is Now--If Ever

By William E. Smith

Hoping for an autonomy agreement, Haig joins the talks

For several weeks, the Reagan Administration has been considering the appointment of a new special negotiator on the Middle East. Last week U.S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig proposed a candidate for the job: himself. At the close of a three-day fact-finding trip to Cairo and Jerusalem, Haig announced that he would take a direct hand in trying to bring about a Palestinian autonomy agreement between Egypt and Israel, preferably within the next three months. Toward that end, he has decided to return to the Middle East later this month, following a meeting in Geneva with Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko on Jan. 26.

Haig's imperative is strategic. He fears that if Egypt and Israel fail to reach some kind of autonomy agreement by April 26, the date on which the Israelis are scheduled to return the final third of the Sinai to Egyptian control, the two nations will be less susceptible to U.S. pressure. Haig foresees a gradual drift by Egypt toward rapprochement with the Arab world, and he expects Israel to become more nervous about its own security and thus less willing to negotiate. He also fears that if the talks do not succeed, they will eventually be superseded by something else--another Saudi Arabian peace plan, a Western European initiative, or even a Soviet proposal--that would be less to Washington's liking.

Then, too, Haig is fearful that Lebanon could again erupt in violence, thereby wrecking any chance of a peace settlement or an "evenhanded" U.S. policy in the region. Says one U.S. official: "Israel would go to war, and we would have to decide between supporting Israel or rejecting Israel, and that would be an impossible choice for us."

Given the risks, Haig concluded that the gamble of high-level diplomacy must be undertaken immediately, although he recognizes that failure would worsen the problem markedly. But he felt, as an aide put it, that he had "a reasonable shot" at succeeding. Haig saw last week's trip as a chance to prepare the groundwork for serious bargaining by immersing himself for the first time in the complex mixture of history, prejudice, aspirations and paranoia that governs Middle Eastern diplomacy.

What Haig hopes to sign by April 26 is a declaration of principles that would govern a transition period for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Such a goal seems all but impossible, however, considering the seriousness of the unresolved issues. Israel wants to talk about a limited form of "autonomy" for the area; Egypt seeks an agreement that would lead to the eventual creation of a Palestinian state.

Israel sees the self-governing authority of the Palestinian entity as a council of some 15 members with purely regulatory powers; Egypt wants a legislative body of about 100 members that would be restricted only from voting independence for the entity or declaring war. Israel aims to retain its control over East Jerusalem and deny the Arabs in the sector the right to vote in West Bank elections; Egypt wants the opposite. Most of all, Egypt seeks an agreement that would be acceptable to at least the more moderate Palestinians; Israel is determined to permit no solution to the Palestinian problem that could jeopardize Israel's own security.

Faced with such wide-ranging differences of viewpoint, Haig decided, as he told reporters on the way to Cairo, that "the time has come for me to make a firsthand assessment on the ground." That is precisely what he did. His aim was not to offer ideas but to assess the degrees of flexibility on both sides. For a day and a half, he talked with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Foreign Minister Kamal Hassan Ali and other officials in Cairo.

Haig got on well with Mubarak. Both are military men, jut-jawed and plainspoken. At the end of the talks in Cairo's baroque Uruba Palace, Mubarak shook hands with Haig and said simply, "Well, I think we are finished." Haig grinned jauntily and replied, "No, see you in Washington." Mubarak arrives in the U.S. for a state visit on Feb. 2, though he may in fact see Haig again in Cairo a few days earlier. Ali assured reporters that Egypt welcomed Haig's participation in the peace process and promised to "intensify" the autonomy negotiations.

Haig also received a warm welcome in Jerusalem, where Israeli officials seemed anxious to forget the strains of the recent past. Haig spent two hours with Menachem Begin at the Prime Minister's official residence. Quipped an obviously pleased Begin, who fractured his left hip two months ago: "I'm delighted that the talks have got off on the right foot, because my left foot is still weak."

One afternoon, Haig was visited by Avital Shcharansky, 31, wife of the imprisoned Soviet Jewish dissident Anatoli Shcharansky, who is reported to be receiving harsh treatment at the Soviet labor camp where he is serving a 13-year sentence. In a toast to his visitor, Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir welcomed Haig's participation as a "positive approach" and added, "We too are ready to make an effort."

What happens next? Haig has tentatively ruled out a return to the kind of shuttle diplomacy made famous by his predecessor and mentor, Henry Kissinger. Haig's view is that since the Egyptians and Israelis are on speaking terms these days, a resumption of the shuttle would amount to "theater for theater's sake." One future possibility: a "mini-Camp David," at which Haig and Foreign Ministers Ali and Shamir would meet for several days of negotiations, leading, it would be hoped, to a draft agreement. --By William E. Smith. Reported by Johanna McGeary with Haig

With reporting by Johanna McGeary

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