Subtle Trade-Off on Strategy

By WALTER ISAACSON

Arms sales to Taiwan and a mission to Peking

The confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union over Poland has potential global consequences. Indeed the crisis has provided a subtle opening to settle one of the prickliest problems the U.S. faces in its complex dealings with China--the sale of arms to Taiwan.

President Reagan looked favorably on Taiwan's request last spring to buy a new generation of advanced American fighter jets, despite warnings from the State Department that such a sale would threaten the delicate normalization of relations with China. As a result of the Polish crisis, however, the U.S. is sending a top-level delegation to Peking. TIME has learned that its mission is to inform the Chinese that the U.S. has decided to refrain from selling Taiwan any fighter jets more advanced or sophisticated than the F-5Es it currently has. At the same time, the U.S. will urge the Chinese to end their deafening silence about Soviet involvement in the Polish crackdown. State Department officials involved with the trip insist that there is no formal quid pro quo. But some observers found it hard to believe that the two items on the mission's agenda were not integrally linked.

In fact, a memorandum to the President spelling out the purpose of the mission was signed by Secretary of State Alexander Haig, Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger and CIA Director William Casey and supported by General David Jones, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Taiwan's current defense needs, they agreed, could be adequately served by additional sales of the F-5E fighter jet it now uses, rather than the new, more powerful F-5G it has been seeking.* The Poland crisis, and the desire for Peking's cooperation in the anti-Soviet propaganda drive, provided an opportunity for these advisers to convince the President that he should deny Taiwan's request for the more sophisticated plane. To placate Taiwan's supporters, conspicuously Reagan himself, the memo also suggested selling Harpoon missiles and rescue helicopters to the Taipei government. Reagan approved the mission last Thursday at a meeting of his top national security advisers. The major proponent of selling advanced jets to Taiwan, Richard Allen, was no longer sitting in the National Security Adviser's chair to offer objections. On Saturday, a delegation headed by Assistant Secretary of State John Holdridge and Deputy Director of the Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs Robert Blackwill was scheduled to leave for Peking.

The Chinese have consistently opposed U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan as an interference in their internal affairs. In the 1978 agreement that normalized relations between the two countries, the U.S. accepted Peking's position that there is only one China, that Taiwan is a part of it, and that the country's sole legitimate government is the one in Peking. Selling advanced weapons to Taiwan, opponents argue, would undermine the pro-Western initiatives launched by China's Senior Vice Chairman Deng Xiaoping, cause the Chinese to downgrade relations with the U.S. and push Peking back into a closer relationship with the Soviets. But Taiwan's supporters point out that the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 requires the U.S. to supply Taipei's government with "sufficient" weapons for its own defense. During the presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan argued that by appearing to abandon old friends under pressure, the U.S. would undermine the value of all its commitments.

China's discomfort over arms sales to Taiwan, including the decision last month to ship $97 million worth of spare parts for older fighter jets to the island, has been reflected not only in its silence over Poland, but also in the increased anti-American rhetoric emerging from Peking. A commentary by the New China News Agency last month accused the Americans of being similar to the Soviets in pursuing "hegemony," a derogatory code word for expansionism. An editorial two weeks ago in Peking's Peoples ' Daily suggested, however, that there might be a way to work out a compromise if the U.S. acknowledged that arms sales to Taiwan are an infringement on China's sovereignty. "Once this principle is established and recognized, the two sides may negotiate ways and means of settling this issue," the paper said. Peking has hinted that it might allow some sales if an eventual date is set for ending the flow of arms. State Department officials have privately approached their Chinese counterparts in Washington and Peking to talk about such a plan, which may be discussed during the Holdridge-Blackwill mission this week. A cutoff of arms to the island would violate the Taiwan Relations Act and would be unacceptable to Reagan and to Taiwan's conservative supporters in Congress.

Should the U.S. try to pursue a trade off with Peking, there is little Taiwan can do but reluctantly acquiesce. The real question is whether Peking will accept the notion that American sales of F-5Es to Taiwan is an example of moderation that should be rewarded rather than rebuked. Many observers think that is unlikely, and the Chinese leadership will undoubtedly respond to any arms sales to Taiwan with sharp words about the violation of its national sovereignty. But whether they take action beyond the rhetoric depends on the priorities of the Peking power structure, which finds itself, like the Reagan Administration, caught in a welter of conflicting concerns. Although China expelled The Netherlands' ambassador when that country sold submarines to Taiwan last year, many American Sinologists believe that Deng and his pragmatic allies would be reluctant to admit the failure of their pro-Western approach by significantly downgrading relations with the U.S. -- By Walter Isaacson. Reported by Richard Bernstein/Peking and Douglas Brew/Washington

* The F-5E, developed in 1970, has 10,000 Ibs. of thrust, allowing it to fly at 1.6 times the speed of sound. Taiwan co-produces some of the planes under license from the Northrop Corp. The F-5G, just developed by Northrop, has 16,000 Ibs. of thrust and can fly at 2.1 times the speed of sound. The F-5G, unlike its predecessor, can carry radar-guided missiles.

With reporting by Richard Bernstein, Douglas Brew

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