Taking a Chance on Elections

By Marguerite Johnson

Taking a Chance Elections

"But who in hell knows what's going to happen ?"

The posters are blue and white, the same colors as the Salvadoran flag, and they usually show three happy citizens standing together. "El Salvador deserves your vote," reads the caption. On radio and television, scrupulously nonpartisan spot announcements urge voters to turn out on election day. "This time your vote will be respected," they insist. "Your vote will make the difference."

Over at the heavily guarded Central Election Council in San Salvador, the capital, Jorge Bustamante, the council chairman, is conducting polls on what kind of turnout can be expected when voters cast their ballots for delegates to a constituent assembly on March 28. He is hoping for 60% of the country's estimated 1 million to 1.5 million eligible voters. "This government is the product of a coup d'etat, "he explains. "In order to go back to legality, we must have a new constitution."

Although the election is still more than three months away, the sudden surge in political activity is part of an all-out campaign by El Salvador's President Joso Napoleon Duarte and the ruling military-civilian junta to persuade Salvadorans to vote. The election, Duarte argues, is a step toward ending the savage civil war that is tearing the country apart and toward restoring the democratic process. Duarte, who is also leader of the centrist Christian Democratic Party, has the strong backing of the U.S. in calling the election. The tentative plan is for the constituent assembly election to be followed by balloting for President in 1983.

The March election has, however, come under sharp attack from some quarters. Leftist spokesmen argue that the operation of right-wing death squads, current military restrictions on civil liberties and a long history of electoral manipulation in El Salvador rule out any chance that the election could be fair and free. The left, of course, is not expected to put up any candidates, since they would almost certainly be murdered. El Salvador's neighbors are also divided about the election. The Organization of American States last week voted 22 to 3 to back the election and send observers if requested. But the resolution was opposed by Nicaragua and Grenada, which support the leftist guerrillas who are trying to oust the Salvadoran junta, and by Mexico, which favors a negotiated political settlement. Four other countries abstained.

Washington is anxious to see an elected government installed in San Salvador, particularly since American aid is expected to rise to $173 million or more next year. "One of the things President Duarte attaches importance to is getting out of this transitional period," explains U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador Deane Hinton. "He feels if we don't have the support, we go." But that position poses grave risks, both for Duarte and the U.S., if his Christian Democratic Party loses the election. Some observers, in fact, fear that the election could turn out to be a "slow-motion right-wing coup" that would give a stamp of legitimacy to the extreme right rather than the Christian Democrats.

The Christian Democrats at present control the political machinery and most of the mayoralties. They have financial and political ties to Christian Democratic parties in Venezuela and Europe. But there are already indications that the National Conciliation Party (P.C.N.), the official party of the previous military regimes, is running neck and neck with the Christian Democrats. The constituent assembly will have governmental powers. Thus, should the P.C.N. win a simple majority or manage to form a coalition with any of four small parties of the far right, Duarte could be ousted as President, the Christian Democrats would lose the ministries they hold, and the U.S. would have sacrificed its best hope for ever restoring democracy in El Salvador.

As the parties geared up their campaigns last week, Defense Minister Joso Guillermo Garcia announced that members of the armed forces would not be allowed to vote, apparently to avoid any charges of military interference. The junta, meanwhile, decreed its new election laws. The use of voter lists will be abandoned. The lists were often a source of fraud in the past. They have also been outdated by the many deaths and dislocations among the population, and they risked being boycotted by voters who fear being murdered if their name appears on a list having anything to do with politics. Under the new system, a voter can present his government-issued ID card at any voting booth in his home province, get his finger marked with indelible ink, and vote. Bustamante insisted that a voter could not remove the ink and vote more than once "unless he amputates a finger, and if he does, I'll be delighted to let him vote two times, even ten." The major problem, Bustamante added, will be getting ID cards for everyone. He estimated that at least 250,000 peasant women do not have them. Another problem will be ensuring the safety of voters in some 30 cities and towns where the guerrillas are strong. In addition, there are signs that the guerrillas may launch a major military offensive before the election.

In a country where wanton death has become common, few people speak openly about whom they might support. Some are blatantly cynical. "The one that will win is the one who is in now," smiled a worker at a sugar-refining plant outside San Salvador, adding: "You have to be with the one that is in. If you are not, you will be in the lava mountains, right?" He was referring to a notorious stretch of lava rock outside San Salvador, called El Playon, that was recently discovered to be a dumping ground for victims of the right-wing death squads. The bodies were left there to be consumed by vultures. Another worker, a cane cutter, reflected both the hope and the despair of El Salvador's enduring dilemma. "We think our vote will be important," he declared, "but who in hell knows what's going to happen?"

. . .

Air piracy is no longer the unusual crime it used to be, but one case in Venezuela last week merits dubious note. In a rare triple hijack, two Aeropostal Airlines flights and one Venezuelan Airways (Avensa) flight were seized shortly after leaving Caracas' Simon Bolivar International Airport. Eleven hijackers, believed to be members of Venezuela's Red Flag terrorist group and representing various leftist causes, got through airport security by passing themselves off as a band of musicians. They boarded the aircraft carrying grenades and automatic weapons concealed in instrument cases. No sooner had the FASTEN SEAT BELT signs been turned off than the three planes' 235 passengers and 15 crew members found themselves on a harrowing 29-hr, jaunt that touched down at various Latin and Caribbean countries en route to Havana. All hostages were released unharmed. The gunmen were taken into custody by Cuban officials. --By Marguerite Johnson. Reported by James Willwerth/San Salvador

With reporting by James Willwerth, San Salvador

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