No Instant Garden of Eden

By Russ Hoyle

As the economy falters, Mugabe angers both blacks and whites

The scene was eerily reminiscent of pre-independence demonstrations during the late '70s, only this time it was not blacks against whites, but blacks against blacks. Outside Salisbury's Ministry of Education and Culture, some 400 angry teachers striking for higher wages and better working conditions last week unsuccessfully demanded an audience with Dzingai Mutumbuka, the Education Minister in the government of Prime Minister Robert Mugabe. Shouted one protester: "Come out if you are not a coward!" The police soon moved in to arrest the teachers, along with a number of angry nurses who were besieging another government building. Government officials immediately outlawed further demonstrations as part of a new crackdown on dissent.

The offenders were quickly released, but their rebellious mood accurately reflected the deteriorating confidence of many Zimbabweans, both black and white, in the 18-month-old Mugabe government. After a euphoric year of independence, Zimbabwe is beset by a variety of serious economic and social problems. Says embattled Finance Minister Enos Nkala: "The leaders of the struggle never promised an instant Garden of Eden. The nation must choose the hard road now."

Zimbabwe's economy, which expanded a remarkable 25% during 1980, will have a 10% rate of real growth this year. That is still a high figure by most standards (the predicted U.S. rate for 1981: less than 1%), but one that conceals growing problems such as a scarcity of gasoline and diesel fuel and spot shortages of butter, cheese and meat. An inflation rate of 20% has more than wiped out gains in wages. Foreign investors, skittish about recent government takeovers of the Zimbabwe Banking Corp., the country's most prominent chain of newspapers and Caps holdings, a pharmaceutical company, have shied away from financing new projects. Exports of important mining and agricultural products have been seriously affected by cutbacks, falling prices and transport problems, causing a shortage of hard currency to buy badly needed goods and services.

Mugabe promised a government dedicated to reconciliation between blacks and whites, but recently he has worried the whites by talking of transforming "our society in the interests and for the benefit of the broad masses of our people." The government's latest budget targets the new nation's upper class, which remains largely white: a 30% capital gains tax, an increase in estate levies and the elimination of tax deductions for business entertainment expenses.

The response of unprecedented numbers of whites, who still run most of Zimbabwe's commerce and agriculture, has been to pack up and leave. Some 18,000 to 20,000 have departed since the beginning of the year, reducing the country's white population to an estimated 180,000.

At the same time, Zimbabwe's 7 million blacks are increasingly restive at the slowness of economic progress and racial reform since Mugabe took office. Though educational facilities have been expanded to include an additional 100,000 children and medical care is free, inflationary prices for food and housing have already offset these gains. In particular, blacks are upset by the lagging pace of Mugabe's land-redistribution program, which has the goal of settling 150,000 blacks by the end of 1983 on largely white-owned territory. Mugabe should have the money to compensate the whites as well as to launch an ambitious public works plan: $1.8 billion in pledges from 36 foreign countries, including $225 million from the U.S.

Enraged by the delays, some 60,000 squatters have occupied unused, white-owned land in the countryside, to the embarrassment of the Prime Minister. "Why do you rush to occupy farms without authority?" he demanded during a recent rally near Fort Victoria. "Hunger!" came the reply from the crowd. Bristling at the charges of Health Minister Dr. Herbert Ushewokunze that he was not moving fast enough to help the blacks, Mugabe two weeks ago sacked his fiery critic.

Mugabe has also come under attack for importing 106 North Korean military advisers to train a special 5,000-man Zimbabwean brigade to use North Korean-supplied tanks, light armored vehicles and small arms. Mugabe has threatened to order the brigade to crack down on government opponents. He has also talked of the possibility of holding a national referendum to approve the establishment of a one-party state. Fearing interference in Zimbabwe's affairs from abroad, particularly the Soviet Union, Mugabe moved on Oct. 17 to limit the number of foreigners in each embassy to 20, thus forcing the Soviet Union to cut back plans to have 50.

The gravest threat to the country's continued stability is Zimbabwe's worsening relationship with South Africa, which in 1980 provided some 27% of its imports, bought 17.5% of its exports and now handles fully 75% of its trade abroad. Mugabe, who broke diplomatic relations with the apartheid regime in September 1980, some five months after he assumed office, has strongly criticized South Africa for refusing to relinquish its hold on Namibia. In retaliation, South Africa has terminated its preferential trade agreement with Zimbabwe, withdrawn its loan of 24 locomotives and expelled thousands of Zimbabwean workers employed in South Africa. The loss of the locomotives was a particularly severe blow: Zimbabwe's transportation system, staggering under the weight of a bumper maize harvest, will be able to get only a fraction of the crops to ports in South Africa without the engines. Says a U.S. diplomat in Salisbury: "I used to think that South Africa believed that it was in its best interests to have a stable Zimbabwe. Now I think Pretoria may have decided it's best to have a Zimbabwe that's in trouble so it can point to another black majority country that has failed."

Mugabe's postrevolution idyll is clearly over. He will have to convince impatient Zimbabweans that the real struggle has just begun if he is to keep the country moving on a steady, moderate course.

--By Russ Hoyle.

Reported by Marsh Clark/Salisbury

With reporting by Marsh Clark

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