Riding Out the Storm-So Far

By John F. Stacks

In a new TIME poll Reagan rates high with Americans

Ronald Reagan and his economic program may be taking a beating from the bankers and brokers on Wall Street, not to mention nervous politicians of both parties in Washington, but the America-people are still solidly behind him. Moreover, the public is willing to wait before judging his policies a success or failure, thus heeding his message that an improved economy will require patience. Some nine months after taking office, Reagan's popularity remains high. While the public's perceptions of his competence in managing the economy, in handling foreign affairs and in providing strong leadership at home and abroad have eroded just slightly in the past four months, the figures remain strongly positive for the President.

These are among the key findings of a national opinion survey conducted for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., from Sept. 15 through 17.* The survey also showed that the President is making progress in one of his avowed aims: to make Americans feel better about themselves and their country. There has been modest but steady improvement in the national mood during Reagan's tune in office. Slightly more than one-third of the people (36%) agree that the state of the nation is good; only 18% held that view in January. At the same time, the number of people describing the state of the nation as "not good" has declined from 82% to 64% since the beginning of the year. The percentage of those surveyed who agree that the country is in deep or serious trouble has declined from 66% in January to 51%.

Of those polled, one out of three report their impressions of the President have improved; on the other hand, the number of those who say that their impressions of Reagan have worsened rose from 15% four months ago to 20% now.

On his presidential performance rating, Reagan does very well. Seventy-seven percent say they have some or a lot of confidence in his management of the economy. Seventy percent have confidence in his handling of foreign affairs and 80% have confidence in his leadership ability.

Reagan gets good marks as well on a series of specific issues: 61% feel that he has made a good start on providing strong moral leadership, although that figure is a drop from 66% in a Yankelovich poll taken last May. He gets a 68% approval rating on the effectiveness of his relationship with Congress and 48% feel he is off to a good start in making Americans feel good about themselves again. Asked whether Reagan is seen as a leader they can trust, 52% said yes in the most recent poll, compared to 57% last May and 48% when he took office. Forty-four percent reported that they had doubts and reservations about the President, compared to 39% in May and 46% in January. That figure is almost identical to Jimmy Carter's rating at the same point in his first year in office. Interestingly, the nation's impression, of Jimmy Carter today is favorable: 52% view him positively, and only 37% negatively.

Americans also credit the President with making a good start in keeping the nation's defense strong and in getting rid of waste in government. He is praised for appointing good people to office and for beginning to re-establish American prestige abroad. Overall, 57% of those polled said that his tough stand in the air-traffic controllers strike made them think more of the President. Even 43% of union members agreed with that view. There were, however, strong differences of opinion about Reagan's relationship with unions in general. While 31% said they had a lot of confidence in his dealing with organized labor, 27% (and 44% of those who said they belonged to a union) had no real confidence.

Reagan's popularity persists in the face of high national concern about inflation--according to the poll, still the leading problem facing the country. High Interest and mortgage rates are now also seen as major difficulties. Half the people surveyed said they were ";very concerned" about mortgage rates, and 68% that they were being personally hurt by high interest rates. But 17% admitted that they had benefited from the high rates being paid on some investments.

There is little expectation that these economic problems will soon go away.

Sixty-six percent said that they felt interest rates would either remain the same or go up by year's end; only 32% expect a decline. At the same tune, 77% believed that the rate of inflation would either remain where it is or increase in 1982; less than one-fourth of the sample felt that the consumer price index would drop. But there was also some modest optimism about the long-term future of the economy.

Slightly more than one-third of those polled said that inflation would decline by 1983, although 58% thought the rate would be unchanged or higher. Only 8% expected to be helped a lot personally by the forthcoming tax cuts, but 46% felt they would be assisted a little. Thirty-three percent felt that the cuts would help to curb inflation, while only 16% thought they would add to inflation.

Perhaps because of these long-range hopes about economic improvement, people seem reluctant to judge Reagan too harshly now. Asked how they felt Reagan has done in fulfilling his campaign promise to reduce inflation, 48% said it was still too early to say. Of those willing to take a stand, slightly more (28%) said he had made a good start than said he was off to a bad start (22%).

According to the Yankelovich poll, 70% believe that balancing the budget is important. In pursuit of that goal, however, the public seems to be on a different track from the President. If further spending reductions are to be made, more people (43%) want military spending reduced than want social spending cut (31%). Opinion on that issue is sharply divided along partisan lines. Democrats and independents want military spending cut before social spending by 2 to 1; Republicans prefer social cuts by 43% to 26%. Fifty-three percent of those polled believe that further military cuts can be made without jeopardizing national security; here Reagan seems to be out of step with the public. (Somewhat paradoxically, the public also favors, by 45% to 34%, building the expensive and controversial MX missile system.) The preference for military cuts may be explained in part by the fact that 76% of the voters surveyed felt they would be personally affected by at least one of the proposed reductions in federal spending. According to the poll, 49% said they would suffer from cuts in Social Security, while 38% would be hurt by reductions in Medicare and 25% by trims in the school-lunch program. Of those reporting incomes less than $10,000, 50% said that they would be affected by three or more of the cutbacks. There is also a noticeable ambivalence on whether or not Reagan is helping reduce unfairness in American life. While 22% said the President has made a good start in that direction, 33% said he had not. Another 33% said it was too early to tell.

Reagan remains the only member of his Administration who has made much of an impression, either way, on those polled. Of the 52% who had an opinion about Vice President George Bush, 83% view him positively. Treasury Secretary Donald Regan and Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger also made positive impressions. Interior Secretary James Watt, on the other hand, has a very divided rating (54% positive, 46% negative).

Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker is both well known (to 64% of the voters) and well liked (84% to 16% favorable).

Some of the President's critics have suggested that he is not heavily enough involved in the daily decision making at the White House and delegates too much authority to his top aides.

The voters do not seem to share that view: 56% disagreed while only 31% agreed. Republicans defended their President by nearly 3 to 1 against that charge.

In fact, his three top aides--Edwin Meese, James Baker and Michael Deaver--have attracted little notice, and most respondents said they were not familiar with their names. Among those voters who did have an opinion, the troika members all got positive ratings.

Among the nation's Democratic leaders, former Vice President Walter Mondale has a 78% to 29% rating in his favor. House Speaker Tip O'Neill, so often Reagan's antagonist, is rated 68% to 32% positive. Public opinion is still sharply divided (55% to 45%) over Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. Other Democrats on the national scene, such as Colorado Senator Gary Hart and Ohio Senator John Glenn, are not well known (only 22% have any impression of Hart and 48% have an opinion on Glenn) but they are both rated highly by those who say they know about them. Baptist Preacher Jerry Falwell, leader of the Moral Majority, continues to attract public attention, as well as considerable opposition. He has a 41% to 16% unfavorable rating.

There has been little change since the last Yankelovich poll in public opinion on the battery of social issues that will confront Congress over the next months.

Almost two-thirds of the voters are still opposed to making abortions illegal; the Equal Rights Amendment is favored by 63%; mandatory handgun registration by 60%, and 73% approve wider use of the death penalty. By heavy majorities (72% to 23%) those polled want sex education in the classroom -- including information on birth control -- and voluntary school prayer (69% to 26%).

Asked for their opinions about foreign nations and their leaders, those surveyed registered a declining approval of Israel and Prime Minister Menachem Begin. A majority feels that the U.S. should cut back on some support when we dis agree with Israel's policies. Voters also have a less favorable opinion of Saudi Arabia, which may explain why 58% of the voters oppose the sale of AW ACS to the monarchy in Riyadh; only 26% are in favor of the deal.

Americans' opinions about the Soviet Union have slipped dramatically: 33% report that their impression of the U.S.S.R. has recently declined.

Nonetheless, a heavy majority still favor reopening strategic arms limitation treaty talks with the Soviet Union: 64% of those queried support such talks while only 26% oppose. The public also seems to lean toward a Carteresque human rights policy, despite the new tougher stands of the Reagan Administration.

Asked if the U.S. should give economic and military support to anti-Communist allies even if those nations violate their citizens' human rights, an overwhelming 76% said no; only 15% said we should continue such aid.

For all their uncertainty about the immediate future, Americans, by and large, remain an optimistic people. The Yankelovich survey asked its respondents how they thought the future looked ten years down the road. Many of those polled, even people with incomes above $30,000 a year, foresaw fundamental changes in the way we live. Four of ten in the survey doubted that they would be able to afford to own more than one car a decade from now, or to send their children to college. Sixty-nine percent said they do not anticipate being in a position to buy a new home.

Curiously, these lowered expectations have not diminished the basic optimism of the American people. Asked whether they or their families would be better or worse off after a decade, almost one of every two voters said that they believed they would be better off. About one-fourth expected little change -- and only 14% said they expected things to get worse for them. -- By John F. Stacks

"The telephone survey polled 1,222 registered voters. The sampling error in a poll of this size is plus or minus 3%. In comparing results with previous studies, the error factor is plus or minus 4.5%

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