The End of the U.S. Embargo

By Marguerite Johnson

Israel will get its planes, but Begin is unrepentant

The issue had bedeviled U.S.-Israeli relations for ten weeks, and when it was finally settled the announcement came as something of an anticlimax. Having registered its displeasure over the Israeli bombing of an Iraqi nuclear reactor and a subsequent attack on Beirut that killed 300 people, the Reagan Administration last week released 16 U.S.-built jet fighters for shipment to Israel. The U.S. had ordered the embargo to determine whether Prime Minister Menachem Begin's government had committed a "substantial violation" of an agreement with the U.S. that stipulates that American arms shall only be employed defensively.

The question was never answered, as the Administration sought to rid itself of an issue that it increasingly came to see as an obstacle in Middle East policy. An intensive review, explained Secretary of State Alexander Haig, had failed to determine whether Israel's bombing raids had been defensive or offensive. Said the former general: "I think, in a subjective way, one can argue to eternity as to whether or not a military action may be defensive or offensive in character." Begin's attitude was hardly helpful. "The planes were ours," he declared the day before the embargo was called off. "We paid for them. They are Israeli planes made in the U.S." The Prime Minister did not mention that U.S. aid to Israel comes to about $2.2 billion this year.

In the end, the U.S. was unable to exact from Israel even a renewed promise to abide by the contractual restrictions on the offensive use of U.S. weapons. An original embargo of four F-16 jets had been ordered immediately following Israel's raid against Iraq on June 7, mainly out of concern that the attack would jeopardize U.S.-Arab relations. When Arab reaction proved to be less critical than expected, the only question for the Administration was when to end the embargo. Nonetheless, Washington hoped to gain some concessions from Israel in return for lifting it--perhaps even an end to Jerusalem's opposition to U.S. sales of AWACS early-warning aircraft to Saudi Arabia.

In early July State Department Counselor Robert McFarlane was dispatched to see what the Israelis might offer. He came away with only a joint statement saying that "misunderstandings" about the raid had been "clarified." Then, just as the U.S. was about to release the F-16s anyway, the Israelis bombed Beirut. The shipment was held up once again and eventually 14 F-16s and two F-15s were included in the embargo. The hold lasted long enough to avoid embarrassing Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who visited Washington in early August.

As for the investigation of whether the arms-sales agreement had been violated, one Administration official explained that "it was a classic damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation." Ruling that there had been no Israeli violation would have provoked the Arabs. Finding the Israelis culpable, on the other hand, would have required drastic U.S. action against Jerusalem, a difficult option for the Administration. Moreover, it would have exacerbated a growing belief in Jerusalem that the embargo was more than a tap on the wrist, that the Reagan Administration, despite its constant protestations of friendship and support for Israel, is determined to open up the diplomatic process in the Middle East.

If its inability to move the Israelis had a sobering impact on the Administration, the White House was still anxious to remove the embargo dispute before Begin arrives in Washington on Sept. 9 for his first visit with President Reagan. The intent is to focus those meetings on the prospects for a resumption of the long-stalled Israeli-Egyptian negotiations on Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza. The autonomy issue is also expected to be the main topic of discussion at this week's summit, the eleventh between Begin and Sadat, in Alexandria. Since they last met in early June in the Sinai, Sadat has abruptly changed his attitude toward the Palestine Liberation Organization: he is now publicly calling for the P.L.O.'s inclusion in the peace process and for its recognition by both the U.S. and Israel. He argues that the cease-fire between Israel and the P.L.O. in Lebanon last month constituted tacit mutual recognition. "I was stunned," he says, "when I learned that [P.L.O. Chairman] Yasser Arafat had said the P.L.O. would respect the ceasefire. We must base our next step on this breakthrough."

Yet Israel denies that the cease-fire represented anything like it; Jerusalem remains implacably opposed to dealing with the P.L.O. Warned Begin last week: "If at any time, anybody brings in that murderous neo-Nazi organization [the P.L.O.], then they will negotiate with that organization, but the chair reserved for Israel will be empty." Indeed, in some government quarters, there now are voices advocating complete destruction of the P.L.O. Nor is there much flexibility among the Palestinians. Arafat and moderates in the P.L.O. acknowledge that Israel is there to stay, but recognition will only be the ultimate step. "I am not giving away my cards in vain, for nothing," he said in a recent interview. "I know I have a little card, but it is the most precious card in the play, the trump card."

In any case, Sadat is not expected to press the P.L.O. issue when he sits down with Begin this week. Egypt is anxious to get the autonomy talks revived and settle final arrangements for Israel's complete withdrawal from the Sinai next April. Sadat predicts that he and Begin will be able to sign an interim autonomy agreement. Jerusalem needs a political solution for the occupied West Bank and Gaza, one that will lessen the onus of running a purely military administration in the occupied territories. The need may bring Israel back to its initial position in the Camp David peace process. That stance, as reiterated by a Begin aide last week, was simple. "Look," he said, "everything is negotiable.''

--By Marguerite Johnson.

Reported by David Aikman/Jerusalem and Roberto Suro/Washington

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN, Roberto Suro

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