A House Divided

Election without a decision

When Ireland's parliamentary election campaign opened a month ago, Prime Minister Charles Haughey and his Fianna Fail (Band of Destiny) party seemed invincible. The polls showed them comfortably ahead of their opponents; Haughey, 55, had sprinted into the lead like an Irish steeplechaser in a field of Clydesdales. But then the jumps got higher. Undercut by the tensions in Northern Ireland and voter discontent over inflation (21%) and unemployment (11%), Haughey saw his lead evaporate. A strong finish by the opposition Fine Gael (Family of the Irish) party, headed by former Foreign Minister Garret Fitzgerald, 54, turned the contest into Ireland's closest election in 20 years. Result: an inconclusive draw with every prospect of a prolonged crisis as each of the contenders tries to form a new government.

After last week's opening round of bargaining to piece together a coalition, Fitzgerald seemed to have a slight edge. Haughey and Fianna Fail had won 78 of the 166 seats in the new Dail (parliament), compared with Fine Gael's 65. The balance of power lay with the small Labor Party (15 seats), whose new leader, Michael O'Leary, showed a marked distaste for the outgoing Haughey government. It would be "very remarkable indeed," O'Leary said, if his party linked up with Fianna Fail. On the other hand, a Fine Gael-Labor coalition is not certain. Haughey had no choice but to seek allies among the six sitting independents, a disparate group ranging from Socialists on the left to Fianna Fail dropouts on the right. He was given little chance of success.

Still, the most worrisome problem stems from two Dail seats that will remain empty. Their would-be occupants, I.R.A. Militants Paddy Agnew and Kieran Doherty, both 26, are on a hunger strike in Northern Ireland's Maze Prison. The election cast a shadow over Anglo-Irish relations, particularly since both countries have been seeking ways to work toward a settlement in Ulster. The Agnew-Doherty issue could draw the Republic deeper into Northern Ireland's sectarian strife. Dublin had managed to keep its distance from the furor that followed the death of Bobby Sands, a member of the British Parliament, last month. I.R.A. strategists intend to deny that luxury in the future. Said one: "Will the Irish parliament remain silent, as the British one did, when one of its members dies on a hunger strike?"

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