Speak Loudly, Sell Big Sticks

A new U.S. policy toward Latin America takes shape

When Ronald Reagan and Mexican President Jose Lopez Portillo shake hands this week at Camp David, they will do so warmly, for the two got along quite well last January during the President-elect's visit to the border city of Ciudad Juarez. But as soon as the two leaders sit down and begin talking policy, the warm feelings may cool. As one U.S. diplomat observes, "Their basic positions evolved separately and are in conflict. Frankly, I wish they would just agree to disagree."

The two nations are at odds over a number of issues: the flow of Mexican immigrants into the U.S., various U.S. trade policies that Mexico considers restrictive and, most dramatic of all, the Administration's emerging foreign policy toward Central America and the Caribbean. The first major manifestation of that policy -- and the subject that most angers the Mexicans -- concerns El Salvador. Lopez Portillo resents the U.S. insistence on making the guerrilla war in that country a test case for its eagerness to help a friendly government survive "indirect armed aggression" by Cuba and other Communist nations that are funneling weapons to the leftist guerrillas. Though the Mexican President has refused to give them aid in the Salvadoran conflict, he publicly supports the leftists. In addition, he has a longstanding and effusive friendship with Cuba's Fidel Castro at a time when the U.S. wants to get tough with Castro.

After Reagan and Lopez Portillo talk over their differences, the Administration will likely unveil another element of its new policy toward the region: a long-term program of both economic and military aid. The Administration plans to use trade concessions and private investment incentives to fight the region's poverty, which it believes only helps breed Communist subversion. The Reaganauts also make no secret of their intention to send arms into the area. As Thomas O. Enders, the Assistant Secretary of State-designate for Inter-American Affairs, said last week, "We will help threatened countries to defend themselves. Once insurgents take arms with outside support, there is no alternative to an armed response."

As if to underscore the dangers facing Central America and the Caribbean, State Department officials claimed last week that several Soviet T-55 tanks may have been shipped from Cuba to the leftist government in Nicaragua. Though officials admitted that the reports have not been confirmed, Secretary of State Alexander Haig charged last week that Nicaragua has been steadily stockpiling other arms from the Soviet Union, Cuba and Libya. Haig added: "We see no threat [to Nicaragua] that justifies increases of this size." Managua, however, feels that a buildup is necessary to counter the threat of an invasion by right-wing Nicaraguan guerrillas based in neighboring Honduras.

Meanwhile, the Administration displayed its willingness to help its own friends arm themselves. The White House approved a request from Venezuela for detailed technical information on the F-16 fighter plane--a sign that the Administration will eventually approve sales of the plane to that country and thus reverse a traditional U.S. policy against introducing sophisticated arms into Latin America.

Venezuela has no immediate need for the planes, but U.S. policymakers see that oil-rich democracy as crucial to the success of U.S. policies in the region.

As further evidence of its desire to court friends in Latin America, the Reagan Administration has down-played Jimmy Carter's concern for human rights and begun to improve U.S. relations with the repressive military dictatorships of Chile and Argentina. Restrictions on trade and military sales have been lifted, and leaders from both countries have been entertained in Washington.

Lopez Portillo will surely caution Washington not to shape its entire Latin American policy as a test of wills between the U.S. and Cuba. But the Administration's policy there, as elsewhere, already seems to be firmly set. Enders summed up the Administration's view: "Cuba has declared covert war on its neighbors--our neighbors."

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