It's Rightward On

By John F. Stacks

A TIME poll confirms a conservative swing--with some big qualifications

A new American consensus is in the making. And, yes, it is conservative, as everyone has long suspected. But it is not the lockstep ideology of the Moral Majority and other far-right zealots, and in many details the consensus differs from the social vision of Ronald Reagan, a President whose popularity rating seems to be on the rise. By and large, the American people are indeed fed up with what they see as an invasion by government and the courts into their private lives. They are worried about the moral standards of the television programs seen by their children. But at the same time, a majority of the U.S. public favors the Equal Rights Amendment, opposes making abortions illegal and is strongly in favor of gun control. Perhaps most important, there is a fresh sense of optimism about the way things are going in the country.

These are among the findings of a major national opinion survey conducted for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., from May 12 through May 14.* The poll contained pleasant news for Reagan. His rating "as a leader you can trust" is virtually the same as Jimmy Carter's was at the same month of 1977. One key difference is that Reagan's level of approval has risen 9% since January (to 57%), while Carter's rating was on a downward slide. Majorities ranging from 71% to 52% agreed with the propositions that Reagan had lived up to his campaign promises in six key areas: working effectively with Congress, providing strong leadership in government, providing moral leadership, keeping U.S. defenses strong, getting rid of waste in government and making Americans feel good again.

Reagan is also given high marks on his handling of foreign affairs with 76% expressing some degree of confidence in him. Nonetheless a near majority opposes his decision to send military advisers to El Salvador (47% to 35%). The public favors reopening strategic arms talks with the Soviet Union (65% to 25%) and clings to a sort of Carter-era policy on human rights by opposing (67% to 23%) economic and military aid for anti-Communist allies like South Korea if they violate human rights.

At least as remarkable as the level of his own popularity is the change in the national mood that has come with Reagan's early months in the White House. In the first week of January, only 26% of Americans polled by Yankelovich felt that things were going well in the country. That figure has now nearly doubled to 51%, marking the first time since October 1978 that a majority has felt so positive. There has also been a dramatic turn in expectations about inflation. In April 1979 only 9% of the country believed that inflation would be curtailed under Carter. Now, 45% say price rises will be controlled.

While 82% of the voters expressed varying degrees of confidence in Reagan's handling of the economy, there is no great support for his proposed three-year tax cut scheme. Only 32% of those questioned favored that proposal, while 36% wanted no more than a one-year tax reduction and 22% disapproved of any tax cut at this time. There is also widespread skepticism about the equity of Reagan's budget cuts: 71% believe that some people--primarily the poor and the elderly--will be hurt more than others.

One major goal of the Yankelovich poll was to document the common perception, predating Reagan's election, that the U.S. has experienced a shift in its political center of gravity toward conservatism. To measure that shift, the Yankelovich organization asked voters a series of questions about their political attitudes. They were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with five statements distilled from the positions of New Right leaders and organizations. The poll found widespread agreement with each statement. There was 73% approval of the idea that "we must build up our military strength so that we are clearly No. 1 and use this strength whenever necessary for our national interests, even if other nations complain." Nearly the same number (71%) agreed that "the Supreme Court and Congress have gone too far in keeping religious and moral values like prayer out of our laws, our schools and our lives." There was 70% agreement that "the government has become far too involved in areas of people's lives like the family, the schools, birth control and what is taught to our children." And 62% endorsed the notion that "government should stop regulating business and protecting the consumer and let the free-enterprise system work." Finally, 60% agreed that "television and other media in this country reflect a permissive and immoral set of values which are bad for the country."

By themselves these figures do not prove a conservative shift, since even 28% of those who described themselves as liberals agreed with most of the five propositions. But the Yankelovich organization repeated a set of questions first asked in a 1974 poll for TIME that were designed to measure discontent and resentment about change in American life. These comparisons confirm a swing to the right.

Between 1974 and the present survey, there was a ten-point increase (to 48%) in agreement that "there is too much concern with equality and too little with law-and-order." Asked again whether "there is more concern today for the welfare recipient who doesn't want to work than for the hard-working person who is struggling to make a living," 64% agreed, compared with 53% in 1974. There was also a measurable increase in the percentage of people who agreed that "belonging to an organized religion is important in a person's life," that the government "should crack down more on pornography in movies, books and nightclubs," and that "people in authority should be shown more respect than they receive these days."

The Yankelovich organization also repeated a set of questions from 1974 about the social outlook of Americans. In some instances the present survey showed that the public is still unhappy about the course on which the nation appears to be heading. Asked to comment on the statement that "people who work hard and live by the rules are not getting a fair break these days," 44% agreed in 1974. Now that figure has increased to 53%. There is also a growing sense that the country has become too narcissistic and unconcerned about the common welfare. In 1974, 46% of those polled agreed with the statement that "people have become too selfish and self-centered and have put their own pleasure ahead of the larger interests of their families and their country." Today 51% agree. In 1974 slightly more than a third of those polled said they agreed that "people like yourself are powerless to change things in the country." That figure has increased marginally to 36% today, despite the approval of the Reagan presidency.

On the other hand, the early record of the new Administration may be responsible for a decline in the number of people who feel that "things are really out of control in the country; you don't see any real solutions." In 1974 a quarter of the people agreed with that gloomy statement. Now, however, only 20% endorse it. Similarly, nearly a third (32%) of the nation felt in 1974 that "the country is changing too fast." But in the current survey, that figure dropped to 23%.

Opinions may have turned conservative, but not the perceptions that people have about where they stand in the political spectrum. In the 1974 Yankelovich poll for TIME, 41% called themselves conservative, 42% said they were "moderates," and 16% termed themselves "liberal or radical." The current numbers are virtually unchanged: 42% conservative, 42% moderate and 14% liberal or radical. What seems to best characterize this new conservatism of the public at large is a general distaste for governmental interference rather than any conformity to the causes of the New Right.

For example, reaction to the Moral Majority, the New Right organization led by Television Preacher Jerry Falwell, was heavily negative. Sixty-two percent of those polled said they had heard of the organization. But of those, 60% said they had a mostly unfavorable impression of it, and only 24% said they thought favorably of the movement. A solid majority (56%) also firmly opposes federal action to make abortions illegal, one of the causes that the New Right puts at the top of its list of social priorities. In addition, 68% of those polled believe that it is up to the individual woman to decide at what stage in the pregnancy human life begins and when abortion should or should not be permitted. There is also strong support (61%) for passage of the Equal Rights Amendment, which the New Right is outspokenly against. Similarly 70% approve of sex education in public schools, including information about birth control, which New Right leaders oppose. But the New Right is in line with public opinion on a constitutional amendment permitting school prayer; 74% of those surveyed are in favor of it.

On two social issues the public favors strong governmental action; both concern the spread of violent crime. Mandatory registration of handguns is firmly favored by 60% (only 37% are opposed)--a stand that once again disagrees with the position of the New Right. Some 73% approve the wider use of the death penalty for such crimes as hijacking or killing a police officer.

One substantial political effect of the conservative mood--and of Reagan's growing popularity--is a more positive attitude toward the Republican Party. Democrats continue to outnumber Republicans in party registration by a 2-to-1 margin, and large numbers of voters say that party label makes no difference in political competence. Nonetheless, Yankelovich found, Republicans are judged as capable of doing a better job on inflation, energy problems, foreign affairs and leadership. That is a reversal of public perceptions since a 1975 Yankelovich poll. Republicans are also favored in "making sure the country is able to defend itself (51% to 14%). Democrats, however, still get more credit than Republicans for being fairer to the middle class, helping the needy and the poor, and making sure that children get a better education.

Understandably, considering the brief tenure of Reagan's Administration, his team has not made much of an impression on the American people. Most of those polled had no definite opinion on the Cabinet and White House staff, but among those who did recognize the Administration's top figures, the opinion was generally favorable. Only Secretary of State Alexander Haig has achieved widespread public recognition, and he is clearly a controversial figure: 46% felt he was a good choice for the job, but 45% felt he was not.

At this point in his Administration, Ronald Reagan has substantial personal popularity. It is clear from the Yankelovich poll that his political strength is related to a central promise of his campaign--namely, to reduce the meddling of federal bureaucracies. But it also seems clear that this strength could be dissipated should the Reagan Administration try to adopt policies and positions of the New Right that are out of step, with public feelings. --By John F. Stacks

* The telephone survey polled 1,221 registered voters. The sampling error in a poll of this size is plus or minus 3.5%. In comparing these results with previous surveys, the error factor is plus or minus 4.5%.

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