Bracing for the Worst

By Marguerite Johnson.

Israel and Syria offer little room for compromise

The atmosphere was electric. Even as U.S. diplomacy tried to keep them apart, Israel and Syria exchanged bellicose threats and seemed to draw closer to all-out conflict. Israeli armored forces headed north for what many feared might be a combined land and air attack inside Lebanon. As if preparing for the worst, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin warned, "We have from time to time to take decisions to send our sons to war." Syrian forces were similarly mobilized. In Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, where most of Syria's 22,000 peace-keeping troops are stationed, Syrian armored units turned their guns southward to face the possible Israeli blitz. In Syria, airborne and infantry reservists were called up, and hospital wards were cleared to make room for potential military casualties.

At sea, the 18,000-ton Moskva, a Soviet carrier, steamed closer to Lebanon in obvious support of the Syrian troops. At the same time, the aircraft carrier Independence and two other U.S. warships sailed through the Suez Canal into the eastern Mediterranean. The carrier Forrestal was also in the area, with a task force that included 1,500 U.S. Marines. The State Department instructed American embassy employees in Beirut to send their dependents home, and advised other Americans to leave. Calling U.S. diplomatic efforts to avert a conflict "a long shot," Secretary of State Alexander Haig warned gloomily: "Time is running out."

At the crux of the crisis was Syria's deployment two weeks ago of three batteries of Soviet-made SA-6 antiaircraft missiles in the Bekaa Valley of eastern Lebanon. Israel continued to demand that the missiles be removed from Lebanon and threatened military action. It was not as though the missiles were there merely for show, after all. On several occasions last week, Syria fired a succession of the SA-6s and managed to shoot down a pilotless Israeli reconnaissance drone.

The danger that the Middle East was storming toward a major conflict added a special urgency to the elaborate U.S. peace mission: a hectic diplomatic shuttle between Beirut, Damascus and Jerusalem by Special Envoy Philip Habib. After meeting with Begin early in the week, Habib went to Beirut for talks with Lebanon's President, Elias Sarkis. Then he climbed back into his black limousine for a midnight drive to Damascus, where he met for the second time with Syria's President, Hafez Assad, to impress upon him the need for restraint while trying to coax concessions that might break the negotiating impasse. Later he hopped aboard an executive Air Force jet for another shuttle to Israel. At week's end he flew to Saudi Arabia for consultations. Lips sealed on the progress of his explorations, Habib told reporters at the airport in Damascus: "It's still silent movies, boys."

But if Habib's exact proposals remained a secret, it was assumed that his peace formula rested on two reciprocal concessions:

1) Christian Phalangist forces in Lebanon would cede control of the eastern city of Zahle to Lebanese army regulars. This would allow both the Christians and the Syrians to disengage from their battle for control of the city, the clash that had provoked the latest crisis.

2) Israel, which supports the Christian Phalangists, would halt air activity over Lebanon's Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border, thus giving Syria a face-saving way of withdrawing its missile batteries.

The plan was likely to encounter difficulties, however. The Syrians objected to replacing the Christians with Lebanese regulars because they believe the army is rife with Phalangist sympathizers. Assad, moreover, continued to insist that the Israelis must cease air activity over all of Lebanon, including the southern strongholds of Palestinian guerrillas. Israel, in turn, bluntly rejected any limitations on its overflights of Lebanon, including the Bekaa Valley. Tel Aviv contended that its security demands the right to carry out reconnaissance flights, as well as pre-emptive strikes against Palestinian positions in Lebanon.

Despite the risk of war with a state far superior in military power, Syria refused to budge on the missile standoff. Assad told Habib that Israel had violated a gentleman's agreement when it attacked Syrian forces by shooting down two helicopters on April 28. Assad said he had no option but to protect his troops against such air assaults by moving in the missiles.

The standoff provided an unexpected boon to Syria's buffeted prestige by compelling other Arab governments to back Damascus in its confrontation with Israel. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other donors had cut off funds to the Syrian peace-keeping force in Lebanon, which is known as the Arab Deterrent Force. The action was taken two weeks ago to compel Syria to restrain its attacks on Christian positions. But the Israeli assault on the helicopters forced the Arabs to close ranks. Observed a senior Western diplomat in Damascus last week: "It was a grave tactical error by Begin. Even if the Syrians lose a few missiles to air strikes, they know they will gain in sympathy from other Arabs."

In Israel, the crisis and the Begin government's handling of it touched off a series of raucous and unruly debates in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. The opposition had already accused Begin of trying to make political capital out of the situation in his campaign for the June 30 elections. Then Begin made the startling admission that Israeli aircraft had actually been prepared to strike against the missiles at 11 a.m., 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. on April 30, the day after the missiles were first introduced into Lebanon. The attacks had not taken place, Begin said, because of weather conditions. The revelation caused a chorus of dismay among members of Israel's military community. Said a former high intelligence official: "This was a very dangerous piece of information to give away." Air force officers said that, the information could convey to potential foes the conditions under which the Israeli air force could not operate. Reflecting the growing concern over Begin's actions, the independent daily Yediot Aharonot editorialized: "The Knesset debate clarified nothing. Quite the contrary: it is possible it has created an impression of amateur handling of Israel's affairs in such a serious situation."

For all its military and air superiority, Israel has a great deal to lose if war should break out. In addition to making an aerial "surgical strike" against the missiles, the Israelis could attack Syria directly. Theoretically, at least, they are also capable of marching into southern Lebanon and all the way to Zahle. But such an adventure is hardly a tempting option since it would run the risk of far more casualties than the Israeli public would tolerate. Moreover, Syria has taken advantage of Israel's hesitation to beef up its own ground forces along the border. An entire armored brigade, with about 100 tanks, was moved into Lebanon to reinforce positions in the Bekaa Valley. Concluded a Western military attache in Damascus last week: "It is definitely more difficult for Israel to attack the missile sites now than it was a week ago."

For this reason, there were still hopes that the Habib mission might yet produce an understanding among all the parties. One possible avenue lay in a plan outlined to TIME by a high Begin aide last week. Under the proposal, the Christian Phalangists and Syrians would disengage their forces near Zahle and elsewhere in the Bekaa Valley, as reportedly called for in the Habib formula. Israel, however, instead of ceasing its overflights in the Bekaa Valley, would pledge not to attack the Syrians on the ground or otherwise threaten their status as a peace-keeping force in Lebanon. If the Syrians were to accept this live-and-let-live approach, said the aide, it might be relatively simple, after a face-saving period of time, for them to take their missiles quietly out of Lebanon.

By Marguerite Johnson Reported by David Aikman/Jerusalem and William Drozdiak/Damascus

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN, William Drozdiak

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