Familiar Field

Union vote hints at a close race

The contest was touted as a kind of election barometer. When the results came in last week, however, it appeared as if the barometer had gone haywire. "This means good returns for the Likud in June," said Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, a member of Prime Minister Menachem Begin's ruling conservative coalition. Said Begin's challenger, opposition Labor Party Leader Shimon Peres: "We are rather satisfied with the results."

Both sides were digesting the voting tallies for delegate representation in the 1.5 million-member Histadrut, the sprawling national labor federation that embraces 60% of Israel's 2.49 million eligible voters. The contest was viewed as the first real test of strength between Begin and Peres as the campaign started to heat up for the June 30 parliamentary election that is regarded as critical not only for Israel but for the Middle East peace process. The outcome, however, suggested that Israelis are far from certain--and generally less than enthusiastic--about the choices before them.

Labor's coalition won handily in the Histadrut balloting with 62.9% of the vote, compared with 57.1% in the last federation elections in 1977. Support for Begin's forces declined from 28.1% to 26.3%. But a Labor Party victory in a workers' organization was hardly surprising. In fact, some Labor leaders had been hoping for a 70% total. Nor were the Peres forces encouraged by the fact that only about 55% of Histadrut members bothered to vote at all. That number was in line with public opinion polls showing that fully 50% of Israeli voters are still undecided about the June contest.

Begin's government has shown unexpected resourcefulness in the early stage of the campaign. Much of the credit belongs to Begin's new Finance Minister, Yoram Aridor, appointed last January. Confronted with Israel's breathtaking 130% annual inflation rate, Aridor, 42, came up with a savvy political response: drastic cuts in the country's steep excise and import taxes on autos, color television sets, washing machines and other consumer products. While polls in January predicted an absolute Labor majority in the 120-seat Knesset, they now show Labor with only 45 seats, Begin's Likud with 33 and various splinter groups with 42. The new polls undoubtedly give Begin more confidence as he faces such unexpected bombshells as the tart revelations of his onetime Defense Minister, Ezer Weizman. Excerpts from a Weizman memoir, read avidly in Israel last week, are sharply critical of Begin and his leadership following the Camp David accords (see following story).

Many Peres supporters had hoped that a sign of new strength might emerge from the appointment of Labor shadow cabinet members last week. But it was not to be. Peres picked a Labor stalwart like Haim Bar-Lev as shadow Defense Minister, but his choice as shadow Finance Minister was mild-mannered Haim Ben-Shahar, president of Tel Aviv University. Ben-Shahar is a respected economist but is considered no match for Aridor in the political arena.

The wildest campaign card, of course, is Moshe Dayan, Israel's former Defense and Foreign Minister. Dayan has announced the formation of his new party, TELEM (a Hebrew acronym for Movement for National Renewal). Polls show that Dayan cannot expect more than nine Knesset seats--but even that result could make him a kingmaker in a tight election. Perhaps more telling was another poll showing that 52% of voters wish Dayan had not formed his new grouping. It appeared that many Israelis were not overly thrilled by the all too familiar field in the election.

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