Scrambling for Advantage

By Russ Hoyle

The prospect: early elections and a vituperative campaign

"We all understood that we reached the point of no return," a Cabinet member said glumly when it was all over. "The Prime Minister to realize that a burden had been from his shoulders."

Thus, with mournful stoicism, an embattled Menachem Begin accepted near demise of his government last week and called for new elections. The Minister's move climaxed weeks of indecision following the collapse of his Likud coalition over a hotly disputed pay raise for the country'sschoolteachers. It set Israel's Knesset to squabbling over the precise timing of the election. It also sent the country's political parties scrambling for advantage in what promises to become one of Israel's most heated and bitterly contested campaigns.

In a bill introduced in the Knesset, Begin proposed that the new election be held on July 7. That date was promptly challenged by some because it coincides with the beginning of the nation's summer vacation. But the opposition Labor Party, led by Shimon Peres, would like to see elections held sooner, in part to take advantage of its current popularity in the polls, and in part because its leadership believes that a strong new government should be formed quickly to cope with Israel's rapidly deteriorating economy.

"Why do we need such a drawn-out, expensive campaign with inflation the way it is?" asked an aide to Peres, referring to Israel's 140% inflation rate. "Besides, no one will take this government seriously once the election date is set." Rather than risk an immediate vote on the floor, however, Labor cautiously decided to fight the matter in committee, where it is probable that a compromise date in mid-June can be worked out.

The debate in the Knesset last week displayed plenty of the Israeli parliament's customary verbal crossfire. As Opposition Whip Moshe Shahal was assailing the Begin government for "setting new world records for inflation, stock market speculation and emigration of Israelis abroad," a heckler broke in. It was Likud Member Ronni Milo, pointing to the visitors' gallery. "Yes," he shouted sarcastically, "we've brought this country to such a state that there's an Egyptian delegation in the gallery." Deadpanned Shahal: "Because of their presence, I crossed out a lot of things I would otherwise have said."

The duelers were referring to a ten-member Egyptian parliamentary delegation that was visiting Israel on a longplanned tour. But if the opposition gloves were on for their benefit, there was little doubt that they would be off for the campaign. "It's probably going to be one of the dirtiest campaigns Israel has ever had," said a ranking Labor member. For one thing, the party's strategists expect a vituperative attack against Peres, quoting various uncomplimentary remarks made by his rival for the party leadership, former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Indeed the mudslinging may have already begun. Labor Secretary-General Haim Bar-Lev was the subject of a barrage of bizarre rumors telephoned into Israel's daily newspapers by anonymous callers. They said that he had been arrested by Israeli security forces on suspicion of spying for the Soviet Union. Bar-Lev scornfully denied the rumors and came close to openly accusing the Likud of starting them. "Half of the opposition people have already been labeled [by Likud] as traitors," scoffed Bar-Lev. "The Likud people are fighting for their political lives."

For his part, Begin tried to hold himself above the fray. He announced that he was prepared to meet President Reagan and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat to revive the long-stalled talks on autonomy for the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. The prospect of an early election should not be an obstacle to a summit, he argued. Said Begin to the visiting Egyptians: "Please tell my friend President Sadat that Israel is ready to renew the autonomy negotiations at any moment."

Even if the talks get back on the track, Labor is certain to make Begin's interpretation of autonomy a centerpiece of its election campaign to keep him under constant pressure. The Begin government has frequently been accused of trying to achieve a de facto annexation of the West Bank with its establishment of Jewish settlements in the region. Indeed it was reported last week that the government had devised a scheme to finance accelerated construction of Jewish settlements before Begin leaves office. The plan was said to entail the assignment of choice Jerusalem and West Bank real estate sites to private contractors willing to put up cash for settlement construction. Jerusalem Mayor Teddy Kollek promptly said he would refuse to give construction permits under such circumstances. "If land can be sold, then give us the money to build schools," he snapped.

Labor's own autonomy policy would grant full self-governing authority in 70% of the area during a five-year transition period, then turn over all but 30% of the territory to a joint Palestinian-Jordanian state under Jordan's control. Under this "Jordanian option," Jordan in return would formally recognize Is rael's right to exist, as guaranteed by United Nations Security Council Resolution 242. There is one snag: Jordan's King Hussein would have to be persuaded to go along, but he has thus far repeatedly refused any discussion of the idea.

Egypt's Sadat has also rejected the plan, arguing that Jordan should not enter into the negotiations until some measure of autonomy is in effect. Meanwhile, Israel was about to become the target of renewed political pressure in the rest of the Muslim world. Sheiks, ministers and kings of some 36 Islamic countries began gathering in the Saudi Arabian mountain resort of Taif for this week's Islamic conference, which promises to be a sumptuous as well as a polemical affair. The Saudis have poured a fortune into rebuilding the city with marble and glass at a cost of more than $1 billion. Among other obvious concerns, such as the Iraq-Iran war, Israel's recalcitrance on the Palestinian autonomy issue was sure to draw heavy fire from the assembly.

Warned Saudi Information Minister Muhammad Abdou Yamani: "Unless the Israelis feel the heat, they will be ready to negotiate for the next 100 years." --ByRuss Hoyle. Reported by David Aikman/Jerusalem

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN

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