New Beginnings, Old Anxieties

By John F. Stacks

A TIME poll finds more unease, less hope, than four years ago

He won election by a landslide and was welcomed to office last week with a blare of trumpets and the bells of rejoicing at the freeing of the American hostages. But Ronald Reagan's honeymoon is likely to be somber. He inherits a nation that is bleakly pessimistic about its own situation, anxious about inflation, skeptical about solving any of its major problems quickly and much less confident than it was four years ago when Jimmy Carter took office.

Reagan settles into the White House with the nation still divided in its opinion of hun. Fewer than half of the American people now express full confidence and trust in the 40th President, while nearly as many say they have doubts and reservations about him. These are the findings of a national opinion survey conducted for TIME by the research firm Yankelovich, Skelly and White Inc. shortly before Reagan's Inauguration.*

The nation's present sour mood of high skepticism and low expectations is in sharp contrast with the national ebullience that surrounded Carter's beginnings as President. At that tune 47% of Americans felt the country was in good shape, compared with 18% who feel that way now. Moreover, Carter, though his electoral victory over Gerald Ford was far narrower than Reagan's victory last fall, arrived in office riding a larger wave of personal popularity than Reagan does now. Four years ago, 62% of the public expressed trust and confidence in Carter. Now just 48% feel that way about Reagan.

But the poll also discloses that while the national mood is darker than four years ago, people are much more realistic about what the new President can accomplish quickly. While expressing hopes that he can improve the national welfare on a wide array of fronts, Americans also share a widespread recognition that noticeable changes may take a while.

About three-quarters of the voters, for example, believe it will be more than a year before any significant progress can be made in curbing inflation and balancing the budget, in making the Social Security system healthy, and in achieving peace in the Middle East.

Slightly more than half of those surveyed also feel that more than a year will be required to improve the nation's defenses, re-establish American prestige abroad, trim waste from Government, deal effectively with the Soviets and reduce unemployment. Though the poll does not measure just how long Americans will be patient about these problems, it does show that Reagan is not expected to be a miracle worker.

On the other hand, hopes are high that Reagan will swiftly assert more leadership than Carter did. Two-thirds of those questioned expect noticeable results in that aspect of presidential performance within the first year of the Reagan Administration. Similarly, voters anticipate a fast turnaround in the relationship between the President and Congress, with 71% saying it is realistic to expect improvement within a year.

The three principal promises made by Reagan during his campaign for the presidency were the pledges to balance the budget, cut taxes and increase defense spending. When considered as a package, those apparently contradictory goals are still greeted with considerable skepticism. Forty-five percent of the people surveyed say they feel that Reagan will be able to make good on all three. The same number, however, say they believe he will not be able to do all three things at the same time.

Looking back at the election in the fall, voters do not interpret Reagan's impressive victory as an ideological mandate. Rather, 63% feel Reagan won the election because the voters rejected the Carter Administration. Only 24% think the election result was a mandate for more conservative policies.

That opinion is reflected in what voters now see as the nation's most pressing problems and in what specific policies they hope Reagan will follow. Inflation still leads the list of major U.S. problems in the minds of those sampled. But they show little enthusiasm for any dramatic solution. Sixty-four percent, for instance, say they oppose the idea, advanced by some Reagan advisers during the transition period, of declaring a national economic emergency. Only 23% favor that idea.

Asked to order their priorities among Reagan's economic and spending promises, voters prefer balancing the federal budget (41%). Second most important is increasing defense spending (31%). Yet surprisingly few people (22%) support a tax cut, making that the least popular course of action.

In specifying what type of tax cut they prefer, voters show strongest support for tax incentives to encourage more research and development by business (63% for vs. 24% against). A much smaller majority (51%) want an across-the-board tax cut of 10%, as promised by Reagan (vs. 25% against). Wage and price controls are still viewed positively as a solution to inflation, but by a close percentage (46% to 39%). When asked whether some environmental controls should be lifted in order to reduce the cost of consumer products like automobiles, more voters say no (46%) than yes (40%).

The poll turned up fresh evidence of a continuing contradiction in American public opinion: though voters generally accept the new Administration's intentions to reduce Government spending and balance the budget, they do not want to dismantle federal programs for health, education and housing. Fifty-five percent are against cutbacks in those programs, while only 36% support such reductions in spending. Even among people who say the first priority of the Reagan Government should be balancing the budget, 57% opposed slashing social programs. Government-imposed product-safety standards are also favored by a strong majority (58%), even though those measures may make consumer goods more expensive.

On other domestic issues, public opinion is neither very conservative nor very liberal. Passage of the Equal Rights Amendment, which Reagan opposes, is still favored by a majority. Gun control, also opposed by Reagan, is supported by more than half the voters. Reagan's support for an amendment to prohibit abortions is not shared by 46% and is endorsed by only 39%.

On the other hand, a few conservative nostrums do enjoy support among a majority of voters. Reinstitution of the death penalty is favored by 68%. The same percentage want to permit prayer in public schools. Providing federal funds to parochial schools is favored by 58%.

The poll discloses relatively moderate views on American foreign policy, even among voters who hope that Reagan will restore American prestige abroad and deal more effectively with the Soviet Union. Asked what U.S. response they would favor if the Soviet Union were to invade Poland, a large majority (68%) support economic sanctions against the Soviets even if they have to be imposed unilaterally by the U.S. But there is opposition (61% against) to sending U.S. troops to protect Poland. Americans also favor, as they have for years, a new strategic arms limitation agreement with the U.S.S.R. Support for another SALT treaty is, in fact, overwhelming: 60% are in favor; only 19% are opposed.

Perhaps because of Reagan's low profile during the lengthy transition period, his image among voters has remained remarkably constant. Sixty-one percent say they have not changed their views of him because of his conduct so far. And while there may be doubt about Reagan personally, there is no great discomfort about his ideological posture or about the views of his Cabinet. Fifty-three percent find Reagan neither too conservative nor too liberal, and 47% feel the same way about the Cabinet. Among Cabinet members and advisers, Alexander Haig, Reagan's choice as Secretary of State, draws the largest unfavorable response, 25%, though far more, 44%, say they like him.

Thus, at the dawn of the Reagan era, Americans hope that their new President will begin to solve the nation's problems, even though they are somewhat skeptical about both the man and his ideas. More than anything else, the public seems willing, at the moment, to wait and see. --By John F. Stacks

*The telephone survey polled 1,219 registered voters on Jan. 6 and 7. The sampling error in a survey of this size is plus or minus 3%. In comparing the results of this study with one conducted in March 1977, shortly after Jimmy Carter took office, the error factor is plus or minus 4.5%.

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