What to Watch For

By Edwin Warner

For the new President, the next few weeks may be critical

Ronald Reagan has said what he intends to do as President with considerable power and sincerity. Now it remains for him to translate words into action. The success of his presidency could rest on how quickly, adroitly and decisively he moves in the next few weeks. Says Frank Freidel, American history professor at Harvard: "If Reagan is going to be an F.D.R. of the right, he is going to have to act rapidly and not let the good will evaporate. The time is past for general exhortation. We had that in the Inaugural speech. Now is the tune for specifics." Adds Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Ed Campbell: "I think the honeymoon period could be shorter than usual because people are just not going to accept business as usual."

The question still to be answered is whether the new President has the will to back up his words. His friends are more worried than his foes about a seeming irresoluteness on occasion, a remoteness from the events over which he should be exercising command. James David Barber, professor of political science at Duke University, feels that Reagan is a "sentimentalist whose presidential style is overwhelmingly rhetorical. He invests very little in the homework of office or tough negotiations. I think we're all going to see more Ben-Gay than blood."

But what appears to be passivity could be careful planning. Leroy Corey, chairman of the Iowa Conservative Union, expects Reagan to keep his campaign promise to try to restore school prayer and to restrict abortions, but he does not think the President should act precipitately. "The worst thing I think Reagan could do would be to take on too much at one time," he says. "That was one of Carter's big mistakes, trying to do 25 things at once. No one realistically expects the welfare state to be dismantled overnight."

The first Reagan moves to be closely scrutinized will be his actions on the economy. The President and his advisers are still wrestling with the economic package they will present to Congress and the public in early February: a blend of tax and budget cuts aimed at seeking a middle ground between risking too much and risking too little. But even before the major policy is unveiled, there will be other telltale clues. Though the President imposed a hiring freeze on the Federal Government last week, as he had pledged, much depends on his follow-through. Carter, after all, took a similar action, yet ended up with some 40,000 additional employees on the federal payroll at the end of his term. Reagan said that hiring outside contractors for federal work--another ruse for getting around a freeze--will not be permitted. But he did not issue a flat ban on the practice. Another tip-off will be the size of the White House staff. Like Carter, Reagan has promised to pare it. One measure of his resolve will be quickly apparent: the number of employees listed on the payroll of other agencies who are actually working for the White House--a typical gimmick for hiding fat.

Certain budget cuts in the area of social and health services seem inevitable. But will Reagan be a consistent budget cutter even when his own political interests get nicked? He was strongly supported by the maritime unions and the shipping interests, recipients of considerable federal largesse. Will Reagan risk offending them by failing to increase their stipends? He faces the same problem in the case of farm subsidies. They contribute to the costs of Government and the food bills of consumers, but they are also demanded by a powerful voting bloc. Reagan won support from middle-income and blue-collar workers, who make liberal use of low-interest student loans provided by the Government. The President will upset many hard-pressed families if he reduces or eliminates such aid. But if he does not, and if on top of the loans he urges tuition tax credits, he will make a mockery of his claims to cut spending.

A critical test of Reagan will be his handling of the Social Security system. Nearly everyone familiar with the system acknowledges that steps must be taken to make it solvent, but so far no one has been willing to pay the political price. Reagan could urge any of several changes: moving back the age of eligibility for full benefits from 65 to 68 or older, reducing the automatic annual cost-of-living increase, tightening the scandalously lax $15 billion-a-year disability insurance program. But if the President fails to propose Changes or simply sets up another study group, he will make it clear that he has no stomach for a political hot potato.

Early next month Reagan will probably be plunged into a bruising environmental battle. The Clean Air Act comes up for renewal, and its critics in the automotive, chemical and steel industries are girding to fight for substantial changes. During the campaign, Reagan echoed their charges that the law has damaged productivity, discouraged new investment and eliminated jobs. Says Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Subcommittee on Health and the Environment: "If Reagan keeps to his rhetoric, he will declare war on the act. The potential is there for a tremendous battle." Some of the President's supporters are likely to be split on the issue. While businesses want fewer restraints on coal burning, farmers and fishermen are alarmed by the acid rain emanating from polluting stacks. Says Charles Lee, Florida spokesman for the Audubon Society: "The real tests for the first time in decades will not be between liberals and conservatives, but among conservatives themselves."

Reagan's most obvious challenge in foreign affairs is what to do about Iran in the aftermath of the hostages' release. On the one hand, he will be pressured to take some punitive action; on the other, he must consider the impact of any such move on the stability of a key oil-producing nation in the Persian Gulf.

The first foreign head of government to visit the White House will be Jamaica's newly elected Prime Minister, Edward Seaga, who arrives in Washington this week. The victory last fall of a candidate who supports the free market and friendship with the U.S. marked a stunning reversal of what seemed to be a socialist current in the turbulent Caribbean. Seaga's visit will give Reagan the opportunity to disclose whatever policy he has in mind for encouraging America's friends in the region.

Other crises in the hemisphere demand speedy resolution. The President must decide whether to increase military aid to El Salvador, which is plagued by a leftist insurgency and counterviolence from the right. Last week the Administration suspended economic aid to the leftist government in Nicaragua because it was supplying arms to the guerrillas in El Salvador. Soon Reagan must make up his mind about resuming military assistance to Guatemala, which came to a halt under the Carter Administration after alleged human rights violations. During the campaign, in fact, Reagan criticized Carter's rights policy for often hurting friends of the U.S. and helping its enemies.

The President must decide how hard to push U.S. allies in dealing with the Soviet Union. A potential conflict is posed by a group of Western European nations that are negotiating to acquire a steady supply of natural gas from the Soviets, a deal that could vastly increase their dependence on the unpredictable superpower. Says Paul Seabury, a political scientist at the University of California at Berkeley: "It's an extremely touchy issue and could prove an indication of how tough the U.S. will get as an alliance partner."

Though Reagan has promised to continue the Camp David peace process, he faces trouble with Egypt over American use of a military base at Ras Banas on the Red Sea. The U.S. wants President Anwar Sadat to sign a formal agreement allowing American access, but Sadat is reluctant to do so for fear of stirring up Egyptian opposition. He has warned the U.S. against taking too stern a line.

Early key decisions will be needed on defense. Even with the spending increases planned by the Reagan Administration, hard choices must be made between nuclear and conventional weapons. Should the U.S. move as quickly as possible to increase its nuclear armaments or to build a Rapid Deployment Force capable of acting in an emergency in the Persian Gulf? At the top of the lists of weaponry, Reagan will have to decide whether to go ahead with the MX missile despite its estimated $34 billion price tag and the opposition it has aroused.

Reagan's agenda is thus full, and the first steps he takes--and how quickly and forcefully he takes them--may well set the pattern and the pace of his presidency. --By Edwin Warner. Reported by Laurence I. Barrett/Washington

With reporting by Laurence I. Barrett

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