One Crisis Too Many

By Marquerite Johnson

An unlikely issue proves perilous for Begin's government

No one put it better than Prime Minister Menachem Begin. "We are not talking about teachers," he said after yet another acrimonious political showdown. "We are talking about the survival of the government." So indeed was everyone else in Israel last week, as Begin's tattered coalition hinged its fate on the outcome of a crucial Cabinet meeting that might well bring down his government.

The specific issue involved a proposed pay raise for the country's 65,000 schoolteachers. But what was really at stake was Begin's--and Israel's --political future. At week's end even Begin's associates acknowledged for the first time that a full-fledged government crisis leading to an early election appeared to be more likely than not.

Over the past 3 1/2 years, the Begin government had survived seemingly more daunting challenges, including the resignations of its two most prominent personalities, Moshe Dayan as Foreign Minister in 1979 and Ezer Weizman as Defense Minister last spring. When Begin last November survived by a mere three votes a no-confidence motion in the Knesset on his handling of the economy, it was an indication to many that time was running out.

Few expected a quarrel over teachers' salaries would be an issue that would provoke Cabinet ministers to threaten to quit if they did not get their way. But that is precisely what happened.

Begin was caught in a collision between two headstrong members of his government. On one side was Finance Minister Yigal Hurvitz, a tough administrator who has repeatedly threatened to resign and now stood adamantly opposed to any concession to the teachers. He argued that the proposed pay hikes would cost the government $2 billion over a period of 16 months and aggravate Israel's colossal annual inflation rate. That rate now stands at 140%, the highest in the world.

On the other side was Education Minister Zevulun Hammer, a rising figure in the National Religious Party, which is a major partner in Begin's four-party Likud coalition. Supporting the teachers, Hammer insisted that the government had already agreed to abide by the recommendations of a blue-ribbon committee that had taken up the teachers' demands after a strike two years ago. Besides improved fringe benefits, the committee had endorsed pay increases that ranged from 30% to 60%. The teachers presently earn an average of $200 a month. The panel recommended that their pay be upgraded to the level of engineers.

Both Hurvitz and Hammer said they would resign if the other triumphed in their Cabinet battle. Either way, it would signify almost certain doom for the Begin government. If Hurvitz walked out, two other members of his tiny Rafi Party and two or three other political allies would be expected to follow and thus reduce Begin's majority of 63 Knesset members to fewer than 60, not enough to survive a no-confidence motion. A Hammer walkout would be even more devastating, since he would be expected to take with him most or all of the twelve-member delegation of the National Religious Party. Another danger was the highly credible threat that if the decision went against them, the teachers would stage a nationwide strike.

Counterproposals flew back and forth in a supercharged atmosphere. Deputy Prime Minister Simcha Erlich, searching for a way out of the impasse, proposed that a three-man committee, composed of Begin, Hurvitz and Hammer, meet during the week to try to settle the issue. Begin nodded his assent. But Hurvitz refused to budge. "I don't see any reason to continue the discussions," he said. "I won't agree to giving anything extra to the teachers."

At the Cabinet table, Interior Minister Yosef Burg went on the attack. He had just survived a political row over his firing of the inspector-general of the police for insubordination and the consequent charges of corruption in his ministry. But that did not prevent him from taking careful aim at Hurvitz: "You want to resign from the government and are simply searching for a good excuse to do so."

Replied Hurvitz: "The government can't be so weak-kneed. We must be men.

You are scared of the teachers."

"It's hard to face a million children out of school," responded Burg.

Said Hurvitz: "You are scared of facing issues."

Taunted Burg: "You are always threatening us with letters of resignation, but never writing them."

At that, Hurvitz grabbed a piece of paper and dashed off a brief sentence: "I hereby submit my resignation. Sincerely, Yigal Hurvitz." Hurvitz eventually calmed down and agreed to withdraw his resignation. But the crisis was simply postponed until another day. At a Sunday meeting that lasted for more than seven hours, the Cabinet voted to accept the committee report recommending pay hikes for teachers.

As he had promised, Hurvitz resigned, and threatened to pull his two Rafi colleagues out of the coalition. The cabinet was to meet again on Monday, to decide whether it would submit a bill to the Knesset calling for early elections.

Aides described Begin as "saddened and tired" by the tense and prolonged confrontation.

Ever since he took power in May 1977, Begin has made a virtual obsession of his determination to govern for at least a full four-year term without resigning or being forced to change his coalition. Ordinarily, the next election would have been scheduled for November of this year. Now few politicians believed that it could be held off that long. Even before Hurvitz quit, some of Begin's closest aides were quoted on Israeli radio last week as saying that the Prime Minister would step down if his government was further weakened by resignations. The spectacle of Begin reeling against the ropes was hardly lost on his political rivals. Since polls indicate that the Labor Party would win between 50 and 60 Knesset seats if elections were held now, its leaders scarcely disguised their delight at the prospect of an early vote. Labor Party Chief Shimon Peres abruptly called off a scheduled trip to the U.S. last week and helped prepare a parliamentary motion calling for dissolution of the Knesset--in case Begin should survive and do so himself. Labor's head counters said that they hoped to lure the votes of five or six defectors to give them the 61-vote majority needed to pass the motion in the Knesset.

Those defectors just might come from the National Religious Party, which has threatened before to bolt from Begin's coalition. The N.R.P. has been divided since December, when the attorney general announced that he intended to indict Religious Affairs Minister Aharon Abuhatzeira, one of its senior officials, on charges of accepting bribes to channel funds to religious institutions. Last week the tangled scandal threatened to engulf Interior Minister Burg as well.

Burg, who is Israel's principal negotiator in the Palestinian autonomy talks between Egypt and Israel, suddenly fired the inspector general of Israel's police force, Herzl Shafir, for insubordination. Burg accused Shafir of leaking false information about the Abuhatzeira investigation while the police were still trying to gather sufficient evidence to indict him. Shafir countercharged that Burg had suppressed a probe into his own ministry's improper channeling of funds meant for religious institutions. Burg eventually succeeded in defending his action before the Cabinet, but not before the unseemly internal quarrel had further discredited the Begin government.

The perception that Begin's government no longer has enough of a mandate to continue seemed to be spreading fast. A recent survey showed the Likud bloc winning only 20 or 21 of the 120 seats in the Knesset next time; another reported that fully 50.5% of the voters favor a change of government. Said Yehuda Ben-Meir, parliamentary whip of the disaffected N.R.P..

"We don't want to have a government for another eleven months that is based on nothing more solid than the shifting sands of the desert." --By Marguerite Johnson.

Reported by David Aikman and Robert Slater/Jerusalem

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN, Robert Slater

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