Begin on the Ropes

By Stephen Smith

Besieged from all directions, his regime hangs on with a mere three votes

His government had survived more than 20 no-confidence votes before, but this time Prime Minister Menachem Begin could feel his Likud coalition shaking. Cutting short a visit to the U.S., Begin flew back to Israel and rushed straight to the Knesset, where a seven-hour debate on his economic policies was already under way. As the gallery buzzed with excitement, a roll call of the Knesset kept Begin in power by the slimmest margin yet, 57 to 54. Afterward he tried to be philosophical: "As Winston Churchill used to say, in a democracy, one [vote] is enough."

Perhaps. But as troubles came at him from all directions last week, there were serious doubts about how long the Begin government could continue to hold that last vote. The economic outlook was so gloomy that in the Knesset voting, Begin was deserted by two old allies, former Defense Minister Ezer Weizman and former Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan. In an unrelated and dangerous development, the occupied West Bank exploded in a round of angry demonstrations that left eleven Arab students, most of them teenagers, shot in the legs by Israeli soldiers.

It did not help Begin's mood to have lost face during his U.S. tour when President-elect Ronald Reagan refused to see him. After his farewell meeting with President Carter, Begin plodded somewhat dispiritedly through an otherwise routine speaking tour. But he was his usual combative self when discussing Jerusalem --"the capital of Israel for all generations to come." On Israeli defenses in general, he was cocky: "I bring you good tidings from the land of our forefathers. Israel is strong."

Urging the U.S. to increase its own military presence in the region, Begin indicated that he could welcome temporary U.S. "facilities" in Israel and possibly even in Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat has made a similar offer. Near Cairo last week, U.S. and Egyptian air and ground forces held a series of joint maneuvers called Operation Bright Star. The 1,400 Americans, the first members of the new Rapid Deployment Force to venture to the Middle East, were meant to familiarize themselves with fighting and flying in the desert. Said one U.S. officer: "We've found that the desert is not something to fear."

Begin was in Detroit when Israelis received devastating news about the country's economy. October's inflation rate hit 11%, the third worst monthly figure ever. The government estimated that the 1980 rate would thus reach 138%, up from 111% in 1979. The two main culprits: the cost of oil imports, up more than 75% in the past year, and the enduringly huge defense outlays (38% of the national budget). Salaries, savings and pensions are all indexed to the cost of living, which both fuels inflation and cushions its impact. In 1979, for example, wages actually rose 3% in real terms. But in the first six months of this year, inflation raced past the indexes, and real wages dropped 14%.

Blaming the government, some 8,000 members of Histadrut, the large labor federation, demonstrated outside the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem. Said Yeruham Meshel, the organization's secretary-general: "This government is indifferent to the public's mood." Other critics demanded the resignation of Finance Minister Yigal Hurvitz, often called Yigal the Printer for his willingness to issue new currency to keep up with inflation. Seeing the Begin government thrown on the defensive, the opposition decided to strike.

The Labor Party, the main opposition, introduced a no-confidence motion, and so did two small parties of the far left and far right. During the noisy Knesset debate, Begin's handling of the economy came under attack again and again. "The government is like an unmanned space ship with no objective and no map," groused Gad Yaacobi, the Labor Party's chief economic spokesman. Weizman said he voted against his own party to pre serve the Camp David accords, since many Israelis were blaming their econom ic woes on the return of the Sinai oil fields to Egyptian sovereignty. Said he:

"They are saying peace is a disaster."

Although the West Bank unrest did not figure directly in the Knesset debate, it too reflected on Begin, if only because he has doubled as Defense Minister since Weizman resigned last May. Israeli authorities have been increasingly tough in exercising control over the area's 700,000 Arabs. Since July, all three of the univer sities have been subject to military super vision. The tensions on the West Bank reached a break point after Israeli author ities shut down Bir Zeit University to prevent it from holding "Palestinian Week" activities. In El Bireh, a small town near by, about 50 high school girls gathered to protest the shutdown and threw stones at a passing Israeli car. The dozen or so soldiers trying to control the demonstration fired first in the air and then, when this brought no response, at the girls' legs. One 1 7-year-old girl was hit by a bullet from an automatic rifle. Next day, six students in the adjacent town of Ramallah and four more at Bethlehem University were also wounded, one of them seriously, in similar incidents.

West Bank residents were under standably outraged by the shootings. Said Bir Zeit University Professor Sari Nusseibeh:

"This is a slow attempt by the Israeli military government to murder the Palestinian consciousness." The Jerusalem Post accused the military authorities of "strong-arming the population." In Washington, the State Department issued a statement "deeply" regretting the incidents: "The use of potentially lethal force can lead to grave and far-reaching consequences."

The shootings and the economic crisis are bound to create further fissures in Be gin's fragile government. Hurvitz already has hinted that he might pull out of the Likud coalition and take his tiny La'am Party with him. Says one Begin aide:

"He's just waiting for the right excuse to leave." Many others are also starting to doubt that the Prime Minister can hold on until the regular parliamentary elections next November. If Begin does lose a no-confidence vote, it would almost certainly lead to early elections, a prospect that delights Opposition Leader Shimon Peres, whose Labor Party holds a commanding lead in public-opinion polls. Says Peres:

"The cost to the economy of a wait until November is simply too high, and the people are paying for it."

Reported by David Aikman with Begin

With reporting by DAVID AIKMAN

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.